Good Morning,
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Kamis, 09 Desember 2010
Rabu, 08 Desember 2010
Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/8
Good Morning,
This is an automated post in order to create a daily market thread. Thank you for participating and keeping each other informed until normal posts resume...
This is an automated post in order to create a daily market thread. Thank you for participating and keeping each other informed until normal posts resume...
Selasa, 07 Desember 2010
Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/7 – A Day in Infamy…
Good Morning,
I am in the process of moving, so this will be an abbreviated update. Wednesday and possibly Thursday will be automated posts in order to create a daily comment thread.
This morning futures are significantly higher on news that a compromise has been reached that will extend the Bush era tax cuts. It will also extend the emergency unemployment benefits by an entire year, thus keeping any revolution at bay – temporarily, at least. The bottom line from my perspective is that it is yet another accelerating event in which no decision can be made to actually tackle our deficits. Quite the opposite, in fact this will hugely add to our deficits as the math of debt simply gets worse and worse as no adult is willing to tackle reality.
It is also a political ploy designed to make this an issue once again just in front of the 2012 elections – that’s why the tax cut extension was made to be 2 years in duration. The democrats would like to blame republicans, and visa versa of course. Reality is that they are both puppets of the central banks.
Naturally gold and oil are spiking to new highs – neither seeing any adults approaching, just can kicking.
There was a small movement in the McClellan Oscillator yesterday, so expect today’s move to be large. It’s likely a part of wave 5 up which is pushing bullish sentiment to extremes.
Hate to say it, but we look a lot like Zimbabwe at this point. Money printing galore, no adult decisions, rising equities, higher unemployment, all combined with record numbers of people on food stamps. While markets may go higher for awhile, you will see more and more real people unable to keep up with a false economy. Those profiting from this now will fall the hardest in the end.
Have a good week, I’ll be back up soon and will have more time to write once settled into our new place.
I am in the process of moving, so this will be an abbreviated update. Wednesday and possibly Thursday will be automated posts in order to create a daily comment thread.
This morning futures are significantly higher on news that a compromise has been reached that will extend the Bush era tax cuts. It will also extend the emergency unemployment benefits by an entire year, thus keeping any revolution at bay – temporarily, at least. The bottom line from my perspective is that it is yet another accelerating event in which no decision can be made to actually tackle our deficits. Quite the opposite, in fact this will hugely add to our deficits as the math of debt simply gets worse and worse as no adult is willing to tackle reality.
It is also a political ploy designed to make this an issue once again just in front of the 2012 elections – that’s why the tax cut extension was made to be 2 years in duration. The democrats would like to blame republicans, and visa versa of course. Reality is that they are both puppets of the central banks.
Naturally gold and oil are spiking to new highs – neither seeing any adults approaching, just can kicking.
There was a small movement in the McClellan Oscillator yesterday, so expect today’s move to be large. It’s likely a part of wave 5 up which is pushing bullish sentiment to extremes.
Hate to say it, but we look a lot like Zimbabwe at this point. Money printing galore, no adult decisions, rising equities, higher unemployment, all combined with record numbers of people on food stamps. While markets may go higher for awhile, you will see more and more real people unable to keep up with a false economy. Those profiting from this now will fall the hardest in the end.
Have a good week, I’ll be back up soon and will have more time to write once settled into our new place.
Senin, 06 Desember 2010
Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/6
Good Morning,
Equity prices are slightly lower just prior to the open this morning. The dollar is substantially higher, bonds are higher, oil is down slightly, and gold is up slightly. Just don’t forget that it is a Monday morning in December, thus we can expect low volume and the algos to kick into POMO high gear at some point after the open.
The Euro is solidly lower following comments by Merkel in Germany that they are not in favor of either increasing the size of the bailout pool, nor in introducing phony joint EU bonds:
Of course doing the reasonable thing should earn the euro some love, but quite the opposite in this time of drug induced infusions to infinity and beyond. Of course the central banks will come up with more phony money, if they don’t the game is over for them… and of course if they do the game is also over for them, so the outcome is known, it’s only the timing and events along the way that are open to question. That’s what happens when you let the math of debt get away from you. Just as it has in most places around the globe, China included, and that’s why China is now enforcing price controls in order to keep inflation in check:
China’s own policies have added to the hot money being pumped by the U.S., Europe, and Japan. They are a control government who is fighting against human nature. Price controls NEVER work, history proves that they will always ultimately fail in the long run. Having to implement them is a sign from a historical perspective that those pesky “other events” are coming.
There is no economic data here in the U.S. today, this week will be a fairly light week for data with low market volumes expected.
Scorpions – Winds of Change:
Equity prices are slightly lower just prior to the open this morning. The dollar is substantially higher, bonds are higher, oil is down slightly, and gold is up slightly. Just don’t forget that it is a Monday morning in December, thus we can expect low volume and the algos to kick into POMO high gear at some point after the open.
The Euro is solidly lower following comments by Merkel in Germany that they are not in favor of either increasing the size of the bailout pool, nor in introducing phony joint EU bonds:
Germany Snubs Pleas to Increase Aid Fund, Introduce Joint Bonds
Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Germany rejected calls to increase the European Union’s 750 billion-euro ($1 trillion) aid fund or introduce joint bond sales, signaling its refusal to bear extra costs to stamp out the debt crisis.
With EU finance ministers gathering in Brussels today for their monthly meeting, German Chancellor Angela Merkel rebuffed pleas from Belgium and central bankers to boost the emergency fund to save countries such as Portugal and Spain from falling prey to speculation.
“Right now I see no need to expand the fund,” Merkel told reporters in Berlin today. She said EU treaties bar joint bond sales, which might force up Germany’s borrowing costs, the lowest in Europe.
European political discord pushed down bonds in Spain and Portugal today, reversing gains made last week after purchases by the European Central Bank briefly eased concern about the spreading crisis.
The yield on Spain’s 10-year notes climbed 14 basis points to 5.13 percent as of 1:35 p.m. in London. Portugal’s 10-year yield increased 2 basis points to 5.73 percent. The euro halted a three-session rally, dipping 1.2 percent to $1.3253.
Countries including Greece are “in denial” in saying they’ll be able to repay their full borrowing bills, Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University professor and former International Monetary Fund chief economist, told Bloomberg Television today. “We’d be very lucky to avoid restructuring.”
Merkel’s Role
Under pressure to shield taxpayers in Europe’s largest economy, Merkel is drifting back into the role she played in the early stages of the crisis, when Germany held out against an aid package for Greece.
The political standoff may saddle the ECB with more of the crisis-management burden, said Citigroup Inc. economists including Juergen Michels and Michael Saunders in London in a Dec. 3 e-mailed note.“Eventually the ECB will be forced to increase its contribution to the rescue packages substantially,” the economists wrote. “We expect that after another round of market tensions, the European fiscal policy makers will eventually come up with additional measures to fight the crisis.”
Of course doing the reasonable thing should earn the euro some love, but quite the opposite in this time of drug induced infusions to infinity and beyond. Of course the central banks will come up with more phony money, if they don’t the game is over for them… and of course if they do the game is also over for them, so the outcome is known, it’s only the timing and events along the way that are open to question. That’s what happens when you let the math of debt get away from you. Just as it has in most places around the globe, China included, and that’s why China is now enforcing price controls in order to keep inflation in check:
Wal-Mart Among Companies Facing China Price Controls
Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The southwestern Chinese city of Kunming, where Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Carrefour SA have operations, has imposed temporary price ceilings on daily necessities to counter inflation.
Kunming’s government asked five retailers -- three non- Chinese, one Chinese and one based in Hong Kong -- to report any price adjustments and give reasons for the changes two days in advance of making any alterations, the National Development and Reform Commission’s local branch said on its website yesterday.
Besides the five companies, other food, cooking-oil and beverage producers are requested to apply for government approval 10 working days before making price changes, the statement said.
The city government also imposed temporary price ceilings on daily necessities in major parts of the city starting from yesterday to the end of February, according to the statement. Prices of grain, cooking oil, meat, eggs, milk and noodles are to be kept at levels before Nov. 17, the statement said.
The city limited retail prices of vegetables, depending on type, to 40 percent to 100 percent higher than wholesale prices, the statement said.
“The city’s consumer prices in the first 10 months rose 4.4 percent, the highest among China’s 36 large- and medium-size cities,” the Kunming government said in the statement, adding that the new regulations aim at keeping prices stable and promoting a “harmonious” society amid “strengthening inflation expectations.”
China’s own policies have added to the hot money being pumped by the U.S., Europe, and Japan. They are a control government who is fighting against human nature. Price controls NEVER work, history proves that they will always ultimately fail in the long run. Having to implement them is a sign from a historical perspective that those pesky “other events” are coming.
There is no economic data here in the U.S. today, this week will be a fairly light week for data with low market volumes expected.
Scorpions – Winds of Change:
Minggu, 05 Desember 2010
Ben Bernanke on 60 Minutes… Plus Overtime Interview
I hesitate to give the central banksters air time to get their propaganda out, but it is important to keep tabs on their shenanigans. Their lies put on film, they will only come back to destroy their credibility later, what little of it they have left.
Bernanke has been nothing but wrong, and wrong again. His latest lip flapping will also be proven wrong, well, at least half of it will be – the part about him probably needing to do even more QE than announced… that part is a rare glimpse of the truth:
Sorry, this interview simply makes me angry... PEOPLE OF AMERICA DO NOT BE CONNED! The "Fed" isn't going to go after the bad actors, THEY ARE THE BAD ACTORS! Watch their actions and look through their meaningless words!
Note the scare tactics to convince you not to revolt at the trillions he’s shoveling mainly into the banks. At some point this levitation will have to end, or our current version of the dollar will end – period. Yet another LIE again is that they are not “printing” money. Oh yes they most certainly are, and no, he certainly cannot raise interest rates anytime he wants with an economy that is completely saturated in their debt – doing so is possible with little or no debt, but not when the entire system is saturated.
The markets are completely dependent upon larger and larger doses – the math is exponential. Employment will not ever return to “normal” as long as the economy is saturated with PRIVATE banker “Fed” DEBT. The more debt they pump, the higher unemployment will go. However, the private banks currently OWN the equity markets. The following chart shows the “Feds” current holdings of U.S. Treasuries versus the S&P 500 index – this chart from ZeroHedge says it all – the market is false, it is trumped up by their money printing:
His printing is destroying confidence and is causing the money he’s printing to leave this country and go elsewhere – that is why you don’t see new production in this country, you see it elsewhere. There are consequences for all actions, you cannot wish nor print your debts away, that is complete fantasy, as phony as the central bank’s balance sheets.
Bernanke has been nothing but wrong, and wrong again. His latest lip flapping will also be proven wrong, well, at least half of it will be – the part about him probably needing to do even more QE than announced… that part is a rare glimpse of the truth:
Bernanke Says Further U.S. Monetary Stimulus PossibleMost of the following is an attempt to convince you that he's got it all under control. He wouldn't be doing this interview if he did...
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said U.S. unemployment may take five years to fall to a normal level and that Fed purchases of Treasury securities beyond the $600 billion announced last month are possible.
“At the rate we’re going, it could be four, five years before we are back to a more normal unemployment rate” of about 5 percent to 6 percent, Bernanke said according to a transcript of an interview airing today on CBS Corp.’s “60 Minutes” program. The purchase of more bonds than planned is “certainly possible,” said Bernanke, 56. “It depends on the efficacy of the program” and the outlook for inflation and the economy.
Sorry, this interview simply makes me angry... PEOPLE OF AMERICA DO NOT BE CONNED! The "Fed" isn't going to go after the bad actors, THEY ARE THE BAD ACTORS! Watch their actions and look through their meaningless words!
Note the scare tactics to convince you not to revolt at the trillions he’s shoveling mainly into the banks. At some point this levitation will have to end, or our current version of the dollar will end – period. Yet another LIE again is that they are not “printing” money. Oh yes they most certainly are, and no, he certainly cannot raise interest rates anytime he wants with an economy that is completely saturated in their debt – doing so is possible with little or no debt, but not when the entire system is saturated.
The markets are completely dependent upon larger and larger doses – the math is exponential. Employment will not ever return to “normal” as long as the economy is saturated with PRIVATE banker “Fed” DEBT. The more debt they pump, the higher unemployment will go. However, the private banks currently OWN the equity markets. The following chart shows the “Feds” current holdings of U.S. Treasuries versus the S&P 500 index – this chart from ZeroHedge says it all – the market is false, it is trumped up by their money printing:
His printing is destroying confidence and is causing the money he’s printing to leave this country and go elsewhere – that is why you don’t see new production in this country, you see it elsewhere. There are consequences for all actions, you cannot wish nor print your debts away, that is complete fantasy, as phony as the central bank’s balance sheets.
Sabtu, 04 Desember 2010
Jumat, 03 Desember 2010
Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/3
Good Morning,
Equity futures crept higher overnight until the release of November Employment data which missed expectations and thus caused the market to sell off. The immediate response is equities lower, bonds substantially higher, dollar lower, oil lower, and gold higher.
The headline numbers came in at 9.8% which is up from 9.6% over the past three months, while the payroll number came in at 39,000, down from 151,000 and a severe miss from expectations of 168,000. I was pointing out earlier that November was likely to be a miss due to the lack of fictional additions from their phony “Birth/Death” model.
Below is the entire November Employment Report, note the announcements regarding upcoming changes to the way this report will be calculated.:
Employment November 2010
Here’s Econospin’s summary:
From my perspective, it was last month’s report, just in front of the elections, that was the outlier. Note that we have had two full years of huge job losses in the private sector and now we are shifting to huge job losses in the public sector as huge and mounting deficits begin to strike all levels of government. Also note how once again the ADP report just flat out set expectations in the wrong direction.
The headline rates are artificially lowered by failing to recognize those who most certainly could and would work, but who are outside of their parameters. When we look at the table showing the “Alternate” Series, we can see that U-6, the measurement most closely resembling calculations of the past, seasonally unadjusted rate jumped from 15.9% to 16.3%, while the seasonally adjusted rate remained steady at 17%.
And sure enough, when we look at the Birth/Death model adjustments they were negative for the month, but not as severely as they were last year. If this correction would have been as large as last year’s, then the payroll number would have been even worse:
Next month should be a mild addition of jobs via this model, and thus we can probably expect a report that doesn’t miss as badly as this one did. When you remove the L from the BLS data, you will find that the job situation has not improved, and that there are millions who are able to work full time but are not.
Note once again that Shadow Stat’s SGS data points to 22%+ unemployment:
Factory Orders and Non-Manufacturing ISM is released at 10 Eastern this morning and will be reported inside of the daily thread.
SPX 1200 indeed acted as support yesterday. With $8 billion+ POMOs every single day in December, and now with Europe also artificially buying up bonds all over the place, the markets are enjoying a phony money lift. That lift is bleeding over to oil and is fluffing up momo bubble stocks that are overvalued to extreme levels.
From a wave perspective, we are clearly inside of wave 5 up.
Wave 5’s can either extend or truncate. If it is equal in length to wave 1, then it may reach the 1300ish level. If it equals the length of wave 3, which is unlikely, then it could reach as high as 1362ish. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive again, and many indicators have turned to buy signals. However, the divergences are huge and across all time frames up to monthly. Short term indicators are also divergent again.
When wave 5 peaks, people who view the count as bullish will see the next decline as a large wave 4, while those working bearish counts will view the A,B,C over to complete wave B, and then will call for a very large wave C decline. I believe that wave C is still coming, however remain open to the possibility that a torrent of money fleeing from worthless debt instruments forces everything else higher. The end result will be the same regardless, nothing will change until we eliminate our debt saturated condition, and that will require changing WHO controls the production of money.
Equity futures crept higher overnight until the release of November Employment data which missed expectations and thus caused the market to sell off. The immediate response is equities lower, bonds substantially higher, dollar lower, oil lower, and gold higher.
The headline numbers came in at 9.8% which is up from 9.6% over the past three months, while the payroll number came in at 39,000, down from 151,000 and a severe miss from expectations of 168,000. I was pointing out earlier that November was likely to be a miss due to the lack of fictional additions from their phony “Birth/Death” model.
Below is the entire November Employment Report, note the announcements regarding upcoming changes to the way this report will be calculated.:
Employment November 2010
Here’s Econospin’s summary:
Highlights
Today's employment report stands out-unfortunately as a stray from the other good news this week. Payroll growth for November was unexpectedly soft and the unemployment rate rose. Payroll employment in November increased a soft 39,000, following a revised 172,000 boost in October and a 24,000 dip in September. The latest figure fell short of the median forecast for a 168,000 advance. The September and October revisions were net up 38,000. Private sector payrolls increase 50,000 in November, following a 160,000 boost the month before.
Weakness in the latest month was in goods-producing and government sector jobs. Good-producing employment declined 15,000, following a 3,000 rise in October. In the latest month, manufacturing fell 13,000; construction slipped 5,000; and mining rose 4,000.
Private service-providing gained 65,000 after a 157,000 increase in October. Within private services for November, professional & business services gained 53,000; health care rose 23,000 jobs; and leisure & hospitality increased 11,000. On the downside, retail trade fell 28,000.
Average hourly earnings were flat in November after rising 0.3 percent the prior month. The latest figure came in below the consensus projection for a 0.2 percent increase. The average workweek for all workers was unchanged at 34.3 hours, equaling expectations for 34.3 hours.
Turning to the household survey, the unemployment rate bumped up to 9.8 percent from 9.6 percent in October, topping analysts' forecast for 9.7 percent.
The latest employment situation clearly is disappointing. However, it very much is a curiosity as it is a stark contrast with the recent string of good economic news. At a minimum, there are two theories. First, businesses are still reluctant to hire despite improved demand. Second, the ADP report earlier this week showed strength in hiring by small businesses. This sector is a weak point in the government statistics for payrolls and could improve with revisions. In fact, the BLS is starting to update its establishment birth/death factors on a quarterly basis for January 2011 data for release in February.
On the news, equity futures declined notably.
From my perspective, it was last month’s report, just in front of the elections, that was the outlier. Note that we have had two full years of huge job losses in the private sector and now we are shifting to huge job losses in the public sector as huge and mounting deficits begin to strike all levels of government. Also note how once again the ADP report just flat out set expectations in the wrong direction.
The headline rates are artificially lowered by failing to recognize those who most certainly could and would work, but who are outside of their parameters. When we look at the table showing the “Alternate” Series, we can see that U-6, the measurement most closely resembling calculations of the past, seasonally unadjusted rate jumped from 15.9% to 16.3%, while the seasonally adjusted rate remained steady at 17%.
And sure enough, when we look at the Birth/Death model adjustments they were negative for the month, but not as severely as they were last year. If this correction would have been as large as last year’s, then the payroll number would have been even worse:
Next month should be a mild addition of jobs via this model, and thus we can probably expect a report that doesn’t miss as badly as this one did. When you remove the L from the BLS data, you will find that the job situation has not improved, and that there are millions who are able to work full time but are not.
Note once again that Shadow Stat’s SGS data points to 22%+ unemployment:
Factory Orders and Non-Manufacturing ISM is released at 10 Eastern this morning and will be reported inside of the daily thread.
SPX 1200 indeed acted as support yesterday. With $8 billion+ POMOs every single day in December, and now with Europe also artificially buying up bonds all over the place, the markets are enjoying a phony money lift. That lift is bleeding over to oil and is fluffing up momo bubble stocks that are overvalued to extreme levels.
From a wave perspective, we are clearly inside of wave 5 up.
Wave 5’s can either extend or truncate. If it is equal in length to wave 1, then it may reach the 1300ish level. If it equals the length of wave 3, which is unlikely, then it could reach as high as 1362ish. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive again, and many indicators have turned to buy signals. However, the divergences are huge and across all time frames up to monthly. Short term indicators are also divergent again.
When wave 5 peaks, people who view the count as bullish will see the next decline as a large wave 4, while those working bearish counts will view the A,B,C over to complete wave B, and then will call for a very large wave C decline. I believe that wave C is still coming, however remain open to the possibility that a torrent of money fleeing from worthless debt instruments forces everything else higher. The end result will be the same regardless, nothing will change until we eliminate our debt saturated condition, and that will require changing WHO controls the production of money.
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