Jumat, 30 September 2011
Market Thread 9/30
I'm out of town this morning and will be unable to post an update for today. Please use this thread for daily comments and news sharing. Thank you.
Kamis, 29 September 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/29 - Inflation/ Deflation Debate Debunk Edition…
Good Morning,
Equity futures are higher this morning, with the dollar lower, bonds twisting lower for the fourth day in a row, oil higher, gold & silver higher, and food commodities mixed.
Our third and “final” look at Q2 GDP came in higher than expected, adjusted from +1.0% to 1.3% on the 1.2% expectation. Again, this is all nonsense as our GDP is vastly overstated. In fact even what they call “final,” isn’t really final, as it will be adjusted once more next year. Tiresome debunking the continuous flow of disinformation statistics – this one suffers mostly from counting credit creation as growth, as well as understating inflation which also overstates growth. For what it’s worth, here’s econocomplicit:
Speaking of trumped data, Jobless Claims suddenly fell back below the 400k mark down to 391,000. Of course the prior week was revised higher, this time by 5k. Here’s Econoguess:
“Surprising noise in today’s claims report…” Yes, it’s okay to call it what it is… manipulation. Remember, any number above 350k is a jobs losing proposition, we’ve been shedding jobs for years now without pause.
Pending Home Sales are released at 10:00 Eastern.
Yesterday the Shanghai stock market along with copper price both simultaneously hit new two year lows. Over the past 10 years or so, the Shanghai market and our SPX have moved pretty much together. When they diverge from one another, the other usually plays catch-up. Prior to the late 2007/2008 decline, the Shanghai led the way, a big gap developed and then the SPX crashed. A pretty similar gap has developed now, a three year chart is seen below:
There’s no doubt that China got overheated and that “growth” (money creation) is now slowing. Because a large percentage of China’s business is American centric, they do tend to follow one another.
Yesterday a guest posted some thoughtful comments on the Daily Market Thread. He points out that the central banks create and then feed BOTH inflation and then deflation, using the inflationary leg as the set up to trap people in debt, and then the deflationary leg to strip them of the real assets. This is definitely true, central banks have intentionally caused deflation and used it to their advantage for centuries – JPMorgan famously did this, but I also think this is presently the case as well.
All the central bank has to do is tighten the supply of money, and those in debt wind up turning over real assets to the banks. Thusly the banks profit on the ride up, and then they profit again on the way down gathering assets to inflate again on their next cycle. If I were a narcissistic central banker, this would sound like good sport, and I would encourage others to debate all day long which is coming next, inflation or deflation.
Like I’ve always maintained, there are going to be waves of both, but since private individuals control the production of money, the overall trend will be more and more money until confidence in the money system is completely gone. We are losing confidence now, I would maintain that confidence in our money is too high, and that the system is closer to collapse than the vast majority of people know.
It is the deflationary wave that keeps the system going longer – the more it is fought, the shorter the life of the currency, the sooner those who control its production will lose their power. The central banks are under pressure now, they are walking a tightrope that is not attached at the end to which they are progressing.
My point is that there is no point in arguing inflation or deflation. There is both, and both work to the people’s disadvantage as long as private bankers are in charge. Focus your positive energy on them, withdraw your support of their schemes and their puppet politicians, their negative karma will bite them soon enough.
Equity futures are higher this morning, with the dollar lower, bonds twisting lower for the fourth day in a row, oil higher, gold & silver higher, and food commodities mixed.
Our third and “final” look at Q2 GDP came in higher than expected, adjusted from +1.0% to 1.3% on the 1.2% expectation. Again, this is all nonsense as our GDP is vastly overstated. In fact even what they call “final,” isn’t really final, as it will be adjusted once more next year. Tiresome debunking the continuous flow of disinformation statistics – this one suffers mostly from counting credit creation as growth, as well as understating inflation which also overstates growth. For what it’s worth, here’s econocomplicit:
Highlights
Economic growth for the second quarter ended up stronger than previously estimated but remained anemic. The Commerce Department's final estimate for second quarter GDP growth was bumped up to a rise of 1.3 percent annualized, compared to the prior estimate of 1.0 percent annualized and to first quarter growth of 0.4 percent. The median market forecast called for a 1.2 percent annualized gain.
Final sales of domestic product were revised to an annualized 1.6 percent from the previous estimate of 1.2 percent. Final sales to domestic purchasers were revised up to 1.3 percent from the second estimate of 1.1 percent annualized. By components, the most notable upward revisions were to nonresidential structures, PCEs, and exports.
Economy-wide inflation was revised up incrementally to 2.5 percent annualized, compared to the previous estimate of 2.4 percent and the first quarter rise of 2.5 percent. Analysts had projected a no revision number of 2.4 percent.
Overall, economic growth was very sluggish during the first half of 2011. More recent monthly data are very mixed but net suggest marginal strengthening at best for the third quarter.
Speaking of trumped data, Jobless Claims suddenly fell back below the 400k mark down to 391,000. Of course the prior week was revised higher, this time by 5k. Here’s Econoguess:
Highlights
It turns out Hurricane Irene may have elevated jobless claims all along. At least that's what the Labor Department is suddenly hinting at, attributing a giant 37,000 decline in initial claims in the September 24 week to state offices catching up with hurricane-related data. A Labor Department official also told Market News International that end-of-quarter factors are also coming into play as offices catch up on their work. Adjustment problems tied to calendar shifts may also be at play.
Initial claims totaled 391,000 in the week, far below Econoday's consensus for 420,000. The prior week is revised 5,000 higher to 428,000. The latest week is the first sub 400,000 reading since early August and is the lowest since early April. The four-week average is down 5,250 to 417,000 from a revised 422.25 in the prior week to end five straight weeks of increases. Still the average is roughly 5,000 higher than the month-ago comparison which isn't a positive signal for the monthly employment report.
Continuing claims, in data for the September 17 week, fell 20,000 to 3.729 million with the four-week average down 5,000 to 3.743 million. The month-ago comparison is mildly positive showing a nearly 15,000 decrease. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged for a seventh week at 3.0 percent.
Stock futures are rising sharply in reaction to this report as well perhaps to the upward revision to second-quarter GDP which came out at the same time. But there's plenty of surprising noise in today's claims report which may limit its impact on the markets and on expectations for next week's employment report.
“Surprising noise in today’s claims report…” Yes, it’s okay to call it what it is… manipulation. Remember, any number above 350k is a jobs losing proposition, we’ve been shedding jobs for years now without pause.
Pending Home Sales are released at 10:00 Eastern.
Yesterday the Shanghai stock market along with copper price both simultaneously hit new two year lows. Over the past 10 years or so, the Shanghai market and our SPX have moved pretty much together. When they diverge from one another, the other usually plays catch-up. Prior to the late 2007/2008 decline, the Shanghai led the way, a big gap developed and then the SPX crashed. A pretty similar gap has developed now, a three year chart is seen below:
There’s no doubt that China got overheated and that “growth” (money creation) is now slowing. Because a large percentage of China’s business is American centric, they do tend to follow one another.
Yesterday a guest posted some thoughtful comments on the Daily Market Thread. He points out that the central banks create and then feed BOTH inflation and then deflation, using the inflationary leg as the set up to trap people in debt, and then the deflationary leg to strip them of the real assets. This is definitely true, central banks have intentionally caused deflation and used it to their advantage for centuries – JPMorgan famously did this, but I also think this is presently the case as well.
All the central bank has to do is tighten the supply of money, and those in debt wind up turning over real assets to the banks. Thusly the banks profit on the ride up, and then they profit again on the way down gathering assets to inflate again on their next cycle. If I were a narcissistic central banker, this would sound like good sport, and I would encourage others to debate all day long which is coming next, inflation or deflation.
Like I’ve always maintained, there are going to be waves of both, but since private individuals control the production of money, the overall trend will be more and more money until confidence in the money system is completely gone. We are losing confidence now, I would maintain that confidence in our money is too high, and that the system is closer to collapse than the vast majority of people know.
It is the deflationary wave that keeps the system going longer – the more it is fought, the shorter the life of the currency, the sooner those who control its production will lose their power. The central banks are under pressure now, they are walking a tightrope that is not attached at the end to which they are progressing.
My point is that there is no point in arguing inflation or deflation. There is both, and both work to the people’s disadvantage as long as private bankers are in charge. Focus your positive energy on them, withdraw your support of their schemes and their puppet politicians, their negative karma will bite them soon enough.
Rabu, 28 September 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/28 - U.S. is Worse Off than Europe Edition…
Good Morning,
Equity futures are higher this morning, with the dollar down slightly (four days of down dollar only erased one day of dollar up), bonds are lower, oil is down slightly, gold & silver are flat, and food commodities are down slightly.
The hypocritical and morally challenged Mortgage Banker’s Association reported that Purchase Applications supposedly rose 2.1% and Refinancing Activity supposedly rose a ridiculous 11.2%. Oh right, like there are a ton of people who STILL have not refinanced to lower rates and a measly four basis point phony move by the “Fed” is causing a rush of people to refinance (insert eye roll here). While I’m sure there are some who have, I still don’t believe double digit one week moves. And by the way, anyone foolish enough to refinance every quarter point swing in rates is someone who will never be out of debt. Here’s econofool:
The Durable Goods Report for August missed expectations of a .2% rise by coming in at -.1% both with and without Transportation components. Year over year the Ex-Transportation figure fell from 9.6% to 7.8% supposed “growth.” I say supposed because Durable Goods are measured in phony and increasingly worthless dollars which are nothing but debt instruments designed to profit private central bankers. Did we make more planes, more factory equipment? Who knows? You cannot know because we do not measure the actual number of anything, we measure sales in terms of dollars and we incorrectly calculate inflation to intentionally delude ourselves. Take another Prozac and read what econotripping has to say:
Sorry Econodelude, the only real increase in manufacturing going on involves the production of money and trumped up statistics to mask the former.
Notice how the “data” no longer matters to the “market?” That’s because there is no longer a real market, when the “Fed” has taken to directly and publically manipulating the bond market, the signals and the flow of money are disturbed in ways that mask reality – which is their intention. In addition, the private central banks create money from nothing indebting the people, they use that money to buy the politicians and laws, and they use that money to power their HFT platforms, which operate on exchanges which they also own, and all this is designed to steal from people, in milliseconds, who perform actual productive work, and who in exchange for that work are given debt instruments in payment instead of actual money.
Think about how foolish it is to work for a debt instrument.
If I told you that I would pay you 10 debt contracts per hour to come clean my boats, would you do so? You know, you have to pay interest on those debt contracts you receive, LOL. Head shaking stupidity – stupid is as stupid does. The current monetary system makes no sense, it goes against natural law and therefore has a date with failure which is in progress.
And in Europe they continue to jibber jabber about “getting on the same page” to tackle the seriousness of their problem (debt saturation just like U.S.). No real plan mind you, just references to leverage and getting money somehow from somewhere to “inject” into debt saturated over leveraged banks and countries, like more of the same would actually help. It won’t, more obligations only makes the math worse, not better. Yes, bondholders taking big haircuts, that WILL help, as it means a portion of the debt will go away and the risk takers will get burned, although most of the risk takers we’re talking about simply made the money from nothing to begin with, never offering anything real to back it up. Thus the whole game is a central banker illusion.
But in the stupid central banker game, at least Europe is fractured – and that means they are BETTER OFF than the United States. Here, we are collectively too stupid, inept, and bought off to stop the insanity that is our “Fed.” While Europe has countries who are willing to draw lines to stop putting their citizens on the hook for other’s foolishness, here in the U.S. our central criminals continue to backstop the entire planet – evidently $16 trillion in swaps wasn’t nearly enough, now they are talking more. And our central bank is the only one that can get away with making trillions from nothing because we have been too complicit to take action, again on a collective basis.
What can you do? Stop supporting their game. The “markets” as you knew them no longer exist – get over it, but stop feeding the criminals. Their banks and bond markets are their power base – don’t put your debt instruments (I mean “money”) there to fuel their behavior. Don’t vote for politicians who accept money from the banks (something you may not be able to know effectively as they can get money to them in other ways). Don’t work in any capacity that fuels their behavior (easier said than done, but I made the transition and so can you).
So, while Europe is a mess, the U.S. is screwed because we’re backstopping them and we are too inept to do anything about it. You can act individually, let your conscious be your guide and remember that your life’s karma can be either positive or negative for the future of humanity.
Equity futures are higher this morning, with the dollar down slightly (four days of down dollar only erased one day of dollar up), bonds are lower, oil is down slightly, gold & silver are flat, and food commodities are down slightly.
The hypocritical and morally challenged Mortgage Banker’s Association reported that Purchase Applications supposedly rose 2.1% and Refinancing Activity supposedly rose a ridiculous 11.2%. Oh right, like there are a ton of people who STILL have not refinanced to lower rates and a measly four basis point phony move by the “Fed” is causing a rush of people to refinance (insert eye roll here). While I’m sure there are some who have, I still don’t believe double digit one week moves. And by the way, anyone foolish enough to refinance every quarter point swing in rates is someone who will never be out of debt. Here’s econofool:
Highlights
Last week's fall in mortgage rates, which was tied to the Fed's policy shift to longer-term Treasuries, sparked a rush into refinancing and may have also given a boost to home purchase applications, according to the Mortgage Bankers Associations. The refinancing index jumped 11.2 percent in the September 23 week while the purchase index rose 2.1 percent. The rise in purchase applications was due to a 4.9 percent rise in conventional purchase applications that offset a 0.6 percent decline in applications for government loans which MBA tied to the pending decline in FHA loan limits. The purchase index has been on the rise in recent weeks and the gains hint at welcome strength in tomorrow's pending home sales report.
The average rate for 30-year mortgages with conforming loans ($417,500 or less) fell four basis points in the week to 4.25 percent with the jumbo loans ($417,500 or more) also falling four basis points to 4.51 percent. FHA 30-year loans fell two basis points to 4.05 percent.
The Durable Goods Report for August missed expectations of a .2% rise by coming in at -.1% both with and without Transportation components. Year over year the Ex-Transportation figure fell from 9.6% to 7.8% supposed “growth.” I say supposed because Durable Goods are measured in phony and increasingly worthless dollars which are nothing but debt instruments designed to profit private central bankers. Did we make more planes, more factory equipment? Who knows? You cannot know because we do not measure the actual number of anything, we measure sales in terms of dollars and we incorrectly calculate inflation to intentionally delude ourselves. Take another Prozac and read what econotripping has to say:
Highlights
Durables orders edged down in August, but after such a strong July, the pace is still healthy. New factory orders for durables in August nudged down 0.1 percent, following a 4.1 percent surge in July (previously up 4.1 percent from the factory orders report). The August dip came in a little lower than analysts' forecast for a 0.2 percent gain. Excluding transportation, durables slipped 0.1 percent after rising 0.7 percent in July (factory orders report revision).
Components were mixed. On the downside in August were primary metals, down 0.8 percent; fabricated metals, down 0.5 percent; transportation, down 0.3 percent; and "other," down 0.8 percent. On the plus side were machinery, up 0.1 percent; computers & electronics, up 1.3 percent; and electrical equipment, up 1.3 percent.
Within the important transportation component, motor vehicles fell 8.5 percent after a 10.2 percent jump in July. Nondefense aircraft increased a monthly 23.5 percent in August, following a 49.9 percent surge the month before. And defense aircraft advanced 22.5 percent after edging up 0.1 percent the month before.
Looking at private capital equipment related numbers, a big positive was a 1.1 percent rebound in nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, following a 0.2 percent decline in July. Shipments for this series jumped 2.8 percent in August after a 0.4 percent rise the month before.
Overall, today's report indicates that despite sluggishness elsewhere in the economy, manufacturing remains on a moderate uptrend, taking into account the volatility of durables orders. While businesses may not be hiring people, it clearly looks like they are "hiring" equipment with the rise in nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. This will be a plus for third quarter equipment investment and export components.
Sorry Econodelude, the only real increase in manufacturing going on involves the production of money and trumped up statistics to mask the former.
Notice how the “data” no longer matters to the “market?” That’s because there is no longer a real market, when the “Fed” has taken to directly and publically manipulating the bond market, the signals and the flow of money are disturbed in ways that mask reality – which is their intention. In addition, the private central banks create money from nothing indebting the people, they use that money to buy the politicians and laws, and they use that money to power their HFT platforms, which operate on exchanges which they also own, and all this is designed to steal from people, in milliseconds, who perform actual productive work, and who in exchange for that work are given debt instruments in payment instead of actual money.
Think about how foolish it is to work for a debt instrument.
If I told you that I would pay you 10 debt contracts per hour to come clean my boats, would you do so? You know, you have to pay interest on those debt contracts you receive, LOL. Head shaking stupidity – stupid is as stupid does. The current monetary system makes no sense, it goes against natural law and therefore has a date with failure which is in progress.
And in Europe they continue to jibber jabber about “getting on the same page” to tackle the seriousness of their problem (debt saturation just like U.S.). No real plan mind you, just references to leverage and getting money somehow from somewhere to “inject” into debt saturated over leveraged banks and countries, like more of the same would actually help. It won’t, more obligations only makes the math worse, not better. Yes, bondholders taking big haircuts, that WILL help, as it means a portion of the debt will go away and the risk takers will get burned, although most of the risk takers we’re talking about simply made the money from nothing to begin with, never offering anything real to back it up. Thus the whole game is a central banker illusion.
But in the stupid central banker game, at least Europe is fractured – and that means they are BETTER OFF than the United States. Here, we are collectively too stupid, inept, and bought off to stop the insanity that is our “Fed.” While Europe has countries who are willing to draw lines to stop putting their citizens on the hook for other’s foolishness, here in the U.S. our central criminals continue to backstop the entire planet – evidently $16 trillion in swaps wasn’t nearly enough, now they are talking more. And our central bank is the only one that can get away with making trillions from nothing because we have been too complicit to take action, again on a collective basis.
What can you do? Stop supporting their game. The “markets” as you knew them no longer exist – get over it, but stop feeding the criminals. Their banks and bond markets are their power base – don’t put your debt instruments (I mean “money”) there to fuel their behavior. Don’t vote for politicians who accept money from the banks (something you may not be able to know effectively as they can get money to them in other ways). Don’t work in any capacity that fuels their behavior (easier said than done, but I made the transition and so can you).
So, while Europe is a mess, the U.S. is screwed because we’re backstopping them and we are too inept to do anything about it. You can act individually, let your conscious be your guide and remember that your life’s karma can be either positive or negative for the future of humanity.
Selasa, 27 September 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/27 - Euro TARP LOL Edition…
Good Morning,
Equity futures are doing the end of month/ quarter zoom on rumors of yet another European scheme to shuffle/ leverage paper in such a way as to fool the people into believing that they are making something from something when in fact they are simply going to make something from nothing again to keep their Ponzi going for a few more months/ days/ hours (?). Sorry, but it’s a rob you joke of giant proportions. And that our markets are reacting they way the are… well, let’s just say “buyer beware.”
The dollar is down, bonds are down, oil is up after bouncing off the $80 neckline, gold is bouncing back, silver is roaring back, while food commodities continue to starve those in the world who live on the margins.
The problem in Europe is exactly the same as it is here in the U.S., which is exactly the same as it is in Japan, and in the U.K., and in all the big banks – the condition is one of debt saturation, that is there is not enough income to service the principal and interest associated with all the debt. That has a name, it is called insolvency, which is commonly referred to as bankrupt. This is why throwing “liquidity” at an insolvency condition only works for a short while and then fails – actually makes the insolvency condition worse because it creates more obligations when what is needed is less.
For those who don’t fully understand the root cause of this condition, it is monetary – it is a function of how our money is created and by whom. It is a way different equation if your money is EARNED into being versus loaned into being. It is a way different equation when truly sovereign money is created on behalf of the people – so that it bears no interest, no future obligation, no payment of interest to private individuals. And it matters greatly WHO creates it because those who do can use it to buy their way politically – a huge disaster for the world.
There is no reason whatsoever to give private individuals the money creation power – in fact there are a ton of reasons not to. There should be no U.S. bonds or Treasuries – period. There is no need. These markets are a scam created by and for private interests. They fly in the face of the natural rule of law, and thus they will fail regardless in due time.
The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price data through July was released this morning. While S&P claims it shows “strength,” the truth is that there is no strength to be found in the report whatsoever. While they claim that month to month the 20 city is flat, year over year both the 10 and 20 city are showing price declines in the 4% range. Remember that August was a cliff month economically, and that the selling season is now over. Still, I remind everyone that the huge anchor that is the Option-ARM wave of resets has now peaked and thus a heavy weight is being lifted from the housing market as we speak – but it will take time. Here’s Econospin:
And for those interested in seeing the figures and charts, here’s the entire Case-Shiller report:
Case-Shiller Sep 2011
Consumer Confidence is released at 10:00 Eastern. Not that record low confidence has impacted public actions, it hasn’t. Again, that’s because the narcissists are in charge – you will note that all the bailouts center around them (the banks), and not around clearing the debts of the “consumers” (formerly known as people or citizens). Demand cannot gain traction because the PEOPLE are either debt saturated themselves, or they have no job because businesses are debt saturated, or if they work for the debt saturated government then they are getting pay cuts or are also being laid off, or if they work for the debt saturated banks they are either losing their jobs or making millions robbing from those who still have two nickels to rub together – one or the other.
“Markets?” What a joke. Get ready to be robbed one way or the other. It's all just a matter of time...
Equity futures are doing the end of month/ quarter zoom on rumors of yet another European scheme to shuffle/ leverage paper in such a way as to fool the people into believing that they are making something from something when in fact they are simply going to make something from nothing again to keep their Ponzi going for a few more months/ days/ hours (?). Sorry, but it’s a rob you joke of giant proportions. And that our markets are reacting they way the are… well, let’s just say “buyer beware.”
The dollar is down, bonds are down, oil is up after bouncing off the $80 neckline, gold is bouncing back, silver is roaring back, while food commodities continue to starve those in the world who live on the margins.
The problem in Europe is exactly the same as it is here in the U.S., which is exactly the same as it is in Japan, and in the U.K., and in all the big banks – the condition is one of debt saturation, that is there is not enough income to service the principal and interest associated with all the debt. That has a name, it is called insolvency, which is commonly referred to as bankrupt. This is why throwing “liquidity” at an insolvency condition only works for a short while and then fails – actually makes the insolvency condition worse because it creates more obligations when what is needed is less.
For those who don’t fully understand the root cause of this condition, it is monetary – it is a function of how our money is created and by whom. It is a way different equation if your money is EARNED into being versus loaned into being. It is a way different equation when truly sovereign money is created on behalf of the people – so that it bears no interest, no future obligation, no payment of interest to private individuals. And it matters greatly WHO creates it because those who do can use it to buy their way politically – a huge disaster for the world.
There is no reason whatsoever to give private individuals the money creation power – in fact there are a ton of reasons not to. There should be no U.S. bonds or Treasuries – period. There is no need. These markets are a scam created by and for private interests. They fly in the face of the natural rule of law, and thus they will fail regardless in due time.
The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price data through July was released this morning. While S&P claims it shows “strength,” the truth is that there is no strength to be found in the report whatsoever. While they claim that month to month the 20 city is flat, year over year both the 10 and 20 city are showing price declines in the 4% range. Remember that August was a cliff month economically, and that the selling season is now over. Still, I remind everyone that the huge anchor that is the Option-ARM wave of resets has now peaked and thus a heavy weight is being lifted from the housing market as we speak – but it will take time. Here’s Econospin:
Highlights
Home price trends are holding steady based on S&P Case-Shiller data that, for July's adjusted composite-20 index, show a third straight unchanged reading. Half of the 20 cities tracked show declines with eight gaining and two unchanged. Weakness is concentrated in the West including a third straight decline for Phoenix, San Diego and LA and a sixth straight decline for Las Vegas. Gainers are led by Detroit, Chicago and Washington DC.
Summer is a seasonally strong period for housing demand as seen in the unadjusted data that show a 0.9 percent rise for the composite-20 index vs June's 1.2 percent gain. But the unadjusted year-on-year rate, at minus 4.1 percent, underscores the housing sector's weakness. The minus 4.1 percent reading, though, is an improvement from minus 4.4 and minus 4.5 percent in the prior two months.
Case-Shiller data, which are three-month moving averages based on repeat transactions, offer strongly reliable indications on home prices though they do lag other home-price information including those in the existing and new home sales reports. Yesterday's new home sales report showed unusually severe monthly price contraction during August.
And for those interested in seeing the figures and charts, here’s the entire Case-Shiller report:
Case-Shiller Sep 2011
Consumer Confidence is released at 10:00 Eastern. Not that record low confidence has impacted public actions, it hasn’t. Again, that’s because the narcissists are in charge – you will note that all the bailouts center around them (the banks), and not around clearing the debts of the “consumers” (formerly known as people or citizens). Demand cannot gain traction because the PEOPLE are either debt saturated themselves, or they have no job because businesses are debt saturated, or if they work for the debt saturated government then they are getting pay cuts or are also being laid off, or if they work for the debt saturated banks they are either losing their jobs or making millions robbing from those who still have two nickels to rub together – one or the other.
“Markets?” What a joke. Get ready to be robbed one way or the other. It's all just a matter of time...
Senin, 26 September 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/26 - “Creeping Fascism” Edition…
Good Morning,
Equity futures were first manipulated up, then down, then even more up over the weekend where manipulating the tape is the rule, not the exception. The markets are not real, they are a computer controlled hologram – again, if you are not one of the money printing insiders with your own personal HFT and money to buy both sides of the political aisle, then you are simply donating to those who do if you participate in their charade they still refer to as markets. These markets are a reflection into the breakdown of the natural rule of law, and as we’ll discuss in a minute, that means that the current situation will not last. The dollar is slightly lower, bonds are lower (very little room to go even higher in my opinion), oil is lower, interesting move lower in gold & silver which I’ll discuss in a second, and food commodities are slightly higher.
Huge moves down in gold and silver have occurred in the past week. Over the weekend gold plunged all the way down to the current uptrend support line and is bouncing there, so far producing a long tailed hammer which may be a sign that buyers are stepping in here at support:
Should the current support at about $1,580 break, then the next support will be found in the $1,480 area… it is that support that represents the longer term uptrend line since early 2009. If that support were to give way, then it could be looking at a journey back down to the $1,000ish range:
Why is gold selling off? Four reasons: First is the sense that another wave of deflation is striking and that the Fed is no longer able to pull off more “stimulus”/ printing. Second is flat out manipulation of the market. Third is yet another very large margin hike – again manipulation of the market. And fourth is related to the current credit and liquidity squeeze necessitating those caught in the squeeze sell REAL things because they are trapped in other positions that are not as liquid.
To me the fundamentals have not changed – waves of deflation are expected, but in the end all deflationary waves will be resisted by those in charge of the production of money and therefore the currency in its present form will not survive. That said, the more deflation there is, the longer it will survive. As long as PRIVATE individuals and private corporations are in control of the production of money, owning physical gold and silver is simply far more REAL than participating in their holographic rob you paper games. If you get real and use deflation as a good time to do so, then you can let them have fun playing with themselves in their narcissistic fantasy world while you sleep well at night. Remember that if you own it, that it’s all a relative game.
This morning the Chicago “Fed” National Activity Index was released, showing more economic weakness:
Not that I trust any data from the “Fed.”
New Home Sales are released at 10:00 Eastern (not that I trust any data from the NAR). Consumer Confidence comes tomorrow, and we get conned pretty heavily the rest of the week, including the final revision of the very trumped up Q2 GDP. Remember that this week is end of month, and also end of quarter – the end/beginning of quarters tend to have more game playing involved.
Clearly highlighting the continued breakdown in the natural rule of law, the New York “Fed” recently released a Request for Proposal (RFP) looking for bids to develop an internet related “sentiment” monitoring system that would act kind of like Clif High’s Web-bots that go around in cyber space monitoring the following:
This type of thing is happening more and more both with the central criminal bankers and with our own government which is now completely owned and controlled by the central criminal bankers. There is no real check and balance anymore, they have all be usurped by the ability of private individuals to create and control the supply of money. That ability gives those closest to it, power and control. That is what the “Federal Reserve Act” was, it was the grabbing of power and control.
Here’s THE thing… giving the power and control to a few private individuals goes directly against the natural rule of law, and therefore it cannot/ will not last. In fact, they are losing their power and control right now. Desperate people do desperate things, that’s why we’re seeing bizarre attempts to more directly control the population and to retain their power.
This is what I am now calling “Creeping Fascism.” By fascism I mean something similar to the first definition found for that term:
fas•cism
We see many bizarre events and attempts to hold onto power here in the U.S. today. We saw the events of 9/11 and the bizarre self-defeating “war on terror” as a result. Bizarre acts such as invading countries on false pretenses along with all-out campaigns to spin and control perceptions. Fascism almost always involves vilifying one particular group – for the Nazis it was the Jews, and in the current state of creeping fascism it is Arabs in general, and the boogyman “Al Qaida” specifically.
Again, since power and control are waning for the private central bankers, the acts become more and more desperate. History shows that those acts will eventually lead to significant “other events” which will at some point cause the change that is necessary to restore the natural rule of law – that means that the people in general will again be in power and control – it is the natural order of being, it is where humanity is marching when we stand back and look at the big picture progression of mankind.
While I don’t normally like Niall Ferguson’s overly smooth delivery, he brushed on the rule of law in his latest TED talk “The 6 killer apps of prosperity.” Please take the time to listen through the second half of this video, it is these 6 killer apps where he lays out the necessary ingredients for true prosperity – and I agree with his sentiment on these points, although I think I have written more clearly about the rule of law and the necessary ingredients thereof. He points to East and West Germany, as well as North and South Korea as contrasting examples of this point – one has a more natural rule of law and prospers, while the other with the unnatural rules of law, more closely resembling fascism, are mired in a dark ages type of squalor. I would also add as another example to his list the countries of Haiti versus the Dominican Republic.
Niall’s six killer apps are:
1. Competition
2. The Scientific Revolution
3. Property Rights
4. Modern Medicine
5. The Consumer Society
6. The Work Ethic
To me, Competition, Property rights, and the Work Ethic are all related to more basic tenants of the rule of law. Freedom is a basic tenant that underlies all of Niall’s concepts – this is why our Constitution is so important. But our Constitution is rooted even more deeply, it is the progression of mankind’s trials and errors to that point in humanity’s journey. The march of humanity is a journey that never ends, and our Constitution is not perfect, although it is the closest structure yet in mankind’s march to align our rules of law with those of nature.
For progress to be made in this regard, we must understand that good communication and empathy underlie and surround the rule of law – the population must not be controlled, coerced, or pressured, or the natural rule of law will not exist. This is exactly what things like this latest RFP from the New York “Fed” is – an attempt to control you and me. It is meant to make me fear writing on subjects like this, and it is meant to make you fear talking about it in open communications – it’s about control, it’s about power.
I simply refuse to cede to them my freedom, they cannot silence me, nor guide my discussion. I would implore each and everyone of you to resist this creeping fascism and to never willingly give up the freedom which rightly belongs to you. Your actions will either enable or disable their attempts to control you. Turn off their propaganda news channels, get real with your money, and support others who are real and businesses who are conducting real activities outside of their increasingly desperate central banker box.
Equity futures were first manipulated up, then down, then even more up over the weekend where manipulating the tape is the rule, not the exception. The markets are not real, they are a computer controlled hologram – again, if you are not one of the money printing insiders with your own personal HFT and money to buy both sides of the political aisle, then you are simply donating to those who do if you participate in their charade they still refer to as markets. These markets are a reflection into the breakdown of the natural rule of law, and as we’ll discuss in a minute, that means that the current situation will not last. The dollar is slightly lower, bonds are lower (very little room to go even higher in my opinion), oil is lower, interesting move lower in gold & silver which I’ll discuss in a second, and food commodities are slightly higher.
Huge moves down in gold and silver have occurred in the past week. Over the weekend gold plunged all the way down to the current uptrend support line and is bouncing there, so far producing a long tailed hammer which may be a sign that buyers are stepping in here at support:
Should the current support at about $1,580 break, then the next support will be found in the $1,480 area… it is that support that represents the longer term uptrend line since early 2009. If that support were to give way, then it could be looking at a journey back down to the $1,000ish range:
Why is gold selling off? Four reasons: First is the sense that another wave of deflation is striking and that the Fed is no longer able to pull off more “stimulus”/ printing. Second is flat out manipulation of the market. Third is yet another very large margin hike – again manipulation of the market. And fourth is related to the current credit and liquidity squeeze necessitating those caught in the squeeze sell REAL things because they are trapped in other positions that are not as liquid.
To me the fundamentals have not changed – waves of deflation are expected, but in the end all deflationary waves will be resisted by those in charge of the production of money and therefore the currency in its present form will not survive. That said, the more deflation there is, the longer it will survive. As long as PRIVATE individuals and private corporations are in control of the production of money, owning physical gold and silver is simply far more REAL than participating in their holographic rob you paper games. If you get real and use deflation as a good time to do so, then you can let them have fun playing with themselves in their narcissistic fantasy world while you sleep well at night. Remember that if you own it, that it’s all a relative game.
This morning the Chicago “Fed” National Activity Index was released, showing more economic weakness:
Highlights
Pulled down by the weak employment report, the Chicago Fed National Activity index fell to minus 0.43 in August from plus 0.02 in July (revised from -0.06). Employment-related indicators fell to -0.08 vs July's plus 0.12, while consumption & housing weakened to -0.35 from -0.33 in July. Production-related indicators rose 0.01 in August but are down sharply from 0.26 in July. Despite the big decline in August's overall index, the three-month moving average fell only slightly to -0.28 from -0.27 in July (revised from -0.29).
Not that I trust any data from the “Fed.”
New Home Sales are released at 10:00 Eastern (not that I trust any data from the NAR). Consumer Confidence comes tomorrow, and we get conned pretty heavily the rest of the week, including the final revision of the very trumped up Q2 GDP. Remember that this week is end of month, and also end of quarter – the end/beginning of quarters tend to have more game playing involved.
Clearly highlighting the continued breakdown in the natural rule of law, the New York “Fed” recently released a Request for Proposal (RFP) looking for bids to develop an internet related “sentiment” monitoring system that would act kind of like Clif High’s Web-bots that go around in cyber space monitoring the following:
- Track reach and spread of your messages and press releases
- Handle crisis situations
- Continuously monitor conversations
- Identify and reach out to key bloggers and influencers
- Spot emerging trends, discussions themes and topics
This type of thing is happening more and more both with the central criminal bankers and with our own government which is now completely owned and controlled by the central criminal bankers. There is no real check and balance anymore, they have all be usurped by the ability of private individuals to create and control the supply of money. That ability gives those closest to it, power and control. That is what the “Federal Reserve Act” was, it was the grabbing of power and control.
Here’s THE thing… giving the power and control to a few private individuals goes directly against the natural rule of law, and therefore it cannot/ will not last. In fact, they are losing their power and control right now. Desperate people do desperate things, that’s why we’re seeing bizarre attempts to more directly control the population and to retain their power.
This is what I am now calling “Creeping Fascism.” By fascism I mean something similar to the first definition found for that term:
fas•cism
1. (sometimes initial capital letter) a governmental system led by a dictator having complete power, forcibly suppressing opposition and criticism, regimenting all industry, commerce, etc., and emphasizing an aggressive nationalism and often racism.Most references refer to Mussolini and/ or to the rise of Hitler. These “colorful” characters rose following times of severe economic upheaval. Their nations were down, and they struggled to maintain their grip on global power and control. As they were losing power and control more bizarre acts (other events) rose to the surface.
We see many bizarre events and attempts to hold onto power here in the U.S. today. We saw the events of 9/11 and the bizarre self-defeating “war on terror” as a result. Bizarre acts such as invading countries on false pretenses along with all-out campaigns to spin and control perceptions. Fascism almost always involves vilifying one particular group – for the Nazis it was the Jews, and in the current state of creeping fascism it is Arabs in general, and the boogyman “Al Qaida” specifically.
Again, since power and control are waning for the private central bankers, the acts become more and more desperate. History shows that those acts will eventually lead to significant “other events” which will at some point cause the change that is necessary to restore the natural rule of law – that means that the people in general will again be in power and control – it is the natural order of being, it is where humanity is marching when we stand back and look at the big picture progression of mankind.
While I don’t normally like Niall Ferguson’s overly smooth delivery, he brushed on the rule of law in his latest TED talk “The 6 killer apps of prosperity.” Please take the time to listen through the second half of this video, it is these 6 killer apps where he lays out the necessary ingredients for true prosperity – and I agree with his sentiment on these points, although I think I have written more clearly about the rule of law and the necessary ingredients thereof. He points to East and West Germany, as well as North and South Korea as contrasting examples of this point – one has a more natural rule of law and prospers, while the other with the unnatural rules of law, more closely resembling fascism, are mired in a dark ages type of squalor. I would also add as another example to his list the countries of Haiti versus the Dominican Republic.
Niall’s six killer apps are:
1. Competition
2. The Scientific Revolution
3. Property Rights
4. Modern Medicine
5. The Consumer Society
6. The Work Ethic
To me, Competition, Property rights, and the Work Ethic are all related to more basic tenants of the rule of law. Freedom is a basic tenant that underlies all of Niall’s concepts – this is why our Constitution is so important. But our Constitution is rooted even more deeply, it is the progression of mankind’s trials and errors to that point in humanity’s journey. The march of humanity is a journey that never ends, and our Constitution is not perfect, although it is the closest structure yet in mankind’s march to align our rules of law with those of nature.
For progress to be made in this regard, we must understand that good communication and empathy underlie and surround the rule of law – the population must not be controlled, coerced, or pressured, or the natural rule of law will not exist. This is exactly what things like this latest RFP from the New York “Fed” is – an attempt to control you and me. It is meant to make me fear writing on subjects like this, and it is meant to make you fear talking about it in open communications – it’s about control, it’s about power.
I simply refuse to cede to them my freedom, they cannot silence me, nor guide my discussion. I would implore each and everyone of you to resist this creeping fascism and to never willingly give up the freedom which rightly belongs to you. Your actions will either enable or disable their attempts to control you. Turn off their propaganda news channels, get real with your money, and support others who are real and businesses who are conducting real activities outside of their increasingly desperate central banker box.
Sabtu, 24 September 2011
Jumat, 23 September 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/23 - Breakdown Edition…
Good Morning,
Equities are lower this morning adding to yesterday’s rout. The dollar is lower, bonds are even higher still (as if that's possible), oil is down, gold & silver are breaking down, and food commodities are also lower.
There’s no significant economic data today, so let’s take a look at yesterday’s breakdown…
All the major indices were hit hard, with many making new closing lows below the August lows, such as the Transports:
That’s a clear flag on the Transports, bearish. The Industrials got close to a new closing low but the late day bounce kept it above 10,719 – a close below there today will produce a minor degree DOW Theory sell confirmation:
The SPX is in the same condition as the DOW, very close to closing below the August lows, but obviously breaking down from more of a flag formation:
The BKX and XLF showed how hard the financials got hit. They closed well below the bottom Bollinger band, so expect them to float back to at least that band today.
Funny listening to CNBS yesterday… an ad kept repeating about how smart this investment company is and how strongly they recommend Emerging Markets over the developed world. Of course I was looking at the EEM breakdown even more strongly than the developed markets, they are simply way more volatile and they are certainly not immune to the problems associated with global debt saturation:
This morning the VIX is still above the upper Bollinger, it may take a little time to turn it up and to turn the rest down. Regardless, the market experienced a significant technical breakdown. The SPX flag pattern is targeting about 1,000, although there is pretty strong support at 1,050 and at 1,020.
When I zoom out to a two year chart, I can’t help but see a large potential H&S pattern. This is a very typical topping pattern – the left shoulder is clear, as is the head. The neckline may be just above the 1,000 area and that looks like where we are headed. If this pattern plays out, it may need time for the right shoulder to develop, so we may not drop below that neckline for some time. In fact, the left shoulder took the best part of a year to form. The rule on these patterns is that the larger they are time wise, the more reliable the pattern is. This one has not yet made the right shoulder, so is supposition so far:
Hope everyone has a good weekend! Those who are real can sleep well…
Equities are lower this morning adding to yesterday’s rout. The dollar is lower, bonds are even higher still (as if that's possible), oil is down, gold & silver are breaking down, and food commodities are also lower.
There’s no significant economic data today, so let’s take a look at yesterday’s breakdown…
All the major indices were hit hard, with many making new closing lows below the August lows, such as the Transports:
That’s a clear flag on the Transports, bearish. The Industrials got close to a new closing low but the late day bounce kept it above 10,719 – a close below there today will produce a minor degree DOW Theory sell confirmation:
The SPX is in the same condition as the DOW, very close to closing below the August lows, but obviously breaking down from more of a flag formation:
The BKX and XLF showed how hard the financials got hit. They closed well below the bottom Bollinger band, so expect them to float back to at least that band today.
Funny listening to CNBS yesterday… an ad kept repeating about how smart this investment company is and how strongly they recommend Emerging Markets over the developed world. Of course I was looking at the EEM breakdown even more strongly than the developed markets, they are simply way more volatile and they are certainly not immune to the problems associated with global debt saturation:
This morning the VIX is still above the upper Bollinger, it may take a little time to turn it up and to turn the rest down. Regardless, the market experienced a significant technical breakdown. The SPX flag pattern is targeting about 1,000, although there is pretty strong support at 1,050 and at 1,020.
When I zoom out to a two year chart, I can’t help but see a large potential H&S pattern. This is a very typical topping pattern – the left shoulder is clear, as is the head. The neckline may be just above the 1,000 area and that looks like where we are headed. If this pattern plays out, it may need time for the right shoulder to develop, so we may not drop below that neckline for some time. In fact, the left shoulder took the best part of a year to form. The rule on these patterns is that the larger they are time wise, the more reliable the pattern is. This one has not yet made the right shoulder, so is supposition so far:
Hope everyone has a good weekend! Those who are real can sleep well…
Kamis, 22 September 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/22 - “Twisting” to the Winds of Change Edition…
Good Morning,
Equity markets are still plummeting following Berspankme’s “Twist” and admission that the economy has “considerable downside risk.” The dollar is substantially higher and is breaking through important overhead resistance, the long bond market has gone wild, oil is plummeting, gold & silver are plunging, as are food commodities.
Remember that with “QE” and now with “Twist,” all the markets are not real, they are not free. What they are is 100% false, 100% manipulated. This type of action is exactly why I’ve been advising people to get real and stay real. Key support in the markets is now broken, the sideways flag of the past five weeks is now clearly broken to the downside and the flag target is down in the 1,000ish area on the S&P:
While the move in the long bond is something to behold, again, it is not real. In fact, with the “Fed” now buying and twisting the entire market, there is no way to really know what is real in this space. Desperate people do desperate things is what comes to mind. And I can guarantee you that what they tell you they are doing publically is just the tip of the iceberg – Yes, I am saying that they are outright lying and fraudulently covering up their trail, they have been for quite some time as the numbers simply don’t add up.
Below is a ten year chart of TLT, the 20 year bond fund. It topped in late 2008, and then collapsed into 2009. With “QE” and all the intervention into the bond market, it has not only regained that peak, but is now far beyond it. I can guarantee you that this is NOT sustainable. Eventually all the money printing and “Twisting” will come to an end, and when it does, this market will collapse into at least the normal range for rates. That said, however, as long as the current criminals remain in power, this is their base and they will protect it at all costs:
And soooo, I’ve been talking for quite some time about the “other events” that are in progress, I think we are about to see more of them, and more significant events. If you have already gotten real, then you know that the paper markets no longer directly affect you. But don’t be complacent because their collapse WILL affect you in other ways – you still need to be careful not to get caught up in those “other events” that are accelerating in pace and scope.
Still, as I look through the media I see very little of meaning… people are still way off the root causes of the impossible math and debt saturation. It is the job, then, of those “other events” to do the cleansing that an ordinary wave of deflation cannot accomplish. Look for this cleansing, it is coming, you can feel it getting closer now as what is being tried by those in power increasingly smacks of desperation.
Weekly Jobless Claims missed expectations once again, coming in at 423,000 with the prior week revised higher yet again, of course. Once macroeconomic debt saturation has set in, there is only one way to create REAL jobs (versus made up phony statistical ones), and that is to remove debt. The more debt you remove, the more jobs that will be able to be supported by the real economy. Of course removing debt is not easy, that’s why I wrote Freedom’s Vision, to offer a blueprint. Here’s Econoclueless on the Jobless Claims:
LOL, the markets “aren’t getting any lift from today’s report?” That’s the best they can do? Mind numbing drivel from the people in the economics field – they simply do not understand what is happening.
Buckle up, the fraud is going to come out, but it is not going to leave willingly. Risk is everywhere, you must find something real or some real activity in which to participate with your money or you will eventually be stripped of what you now consider an asset. The winds of change are in the air.
Equity markets are still plummeting following Berspankme’s “Twist” and admission that the economy has “considerable downside risk.” The dollar is substantially higher and is breaking through important overhead resistance, the long bond market has gone wild, oil is plummeting, gold & silver are plunging, as are food commodities.
Remember that with “QE” and now with “Twist,” all the markets are not real, they are not free. What they are is 100% false, 100% manipulated. This type of action is exactly why I’ve been advising people to get real and stay real. Key support in the markets is now broken, the sideways flag of the past five weeks is now clearly broken to the downside and the flag target is down in the 1,000ish area on the S&P:
While the move in the long bond is something to behold, again, it is not real. In fact, with the “Fed” now buying and twisting the entire market, there is no way to really know what is real in this space. Desperate people do desperate things is what comes to mind. And I can guarantee you that what they tell you they are doing publically is just the tip of the iceberg – Yes, I am saying that they are outright lying and fraudulently covering up their trail, they have been for quite some time as the numbers simply don’t add up.
Below is a ten year chart of TLT, the 20 year bond fund. It topped in late 2008, and then collapsed into 2009. With “QE” and all the intervention into the bond market, it has not only regained that peak, but is now far beyond it. I can guarantee you that this is NOT sustainable. Eventually all the money printing and “Twisting” will come to an end, and when it does, this market will collapse into at least the normal range for rates. That said, however, as long as the current criminals remain in power, this is their base and they will protect it at all costs:
And soooo, I’ve been talking for quite some time about the “other events” that are in progress, I think we are about to see more of them, and more significant events. If you have already gotten real, then you know that the paper markets no longer directly affect you. But don’t be complacent because their collapse WILL affect you in other ways – you still need to be careful not to get caught up in those “other events” that are accelerating in pace and scope.
Still, as I look through the media I see very little of meaning… people are still way off the root causes of the impossible math and debt saturation. It is the job, then, of those “other events” to do the cleansing that an ordinary wave of deflation cannot accomplish. Look for this cleansing, it is coming, you can feel it getting closer now as what is being tried by those in power increasingly smacks of desperation.
Weekly Jobless Claims missed expectations once again, coming in at 423,000 with the prior week revised higher yet again, of course. Once macroeconomic debt saturation has set in, there is only one way to create REAL jobs (versus made up phony statistical ones), and that is to remove debt. The more debt you remove, the more jobs that will be able to be supported by the real economy. Of course removing debt is not easy, that’s why I wrote Freedom’s Vision, to offer a blueprint. Here’s Econoclueless on the Jobless Claims:
Highlights
Fewer Americans applied for initial jobless claims in the September 17 week though today's report is mixed. The week-to-week change, at minus 9,000, is a good indication but the 423,000 level is 3,000 higher than the Econoday consensus and reflects a 4,000 upward revision to the prior week to 432,000. Another negative is the fifth straight rise in the four-week average, though the latest gain is minimal to 421,000 vs a revised 420,500 in the prior week. Still, a look back to mid-August shows the four-week average at 403,500 in a comparison that points to trouble for the September employment report.
Continuing claims, in data for the September 10 week, fell 28,000 to 3.727 million with the four-week average down 7,000 to 3.742 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers, at 3.0 percent, is unchanged for the six straight week.
The Labor Department reports no special factors in either the current week or in the upward revision to the prior week when the East coast was cleaning up from Hurricane Irene. Markets, where risk-aversion is very heavy right now, aren't getting any lift from today's report.
LOL, the markets “aren’t getting any lift from today’s report?” That’s the best they can do? Mind numbing drivel from the people in the economics field – they simply do not understand what is happening.
Buckle up, the fraud is going to come out, but it is not going to leave willingly. Risk is everywhere, you must find something real or some real activity in which to participate with your money or you will eventually be stripped of what you now consider an asset. The winds of change are in the air.
Rabu, 21 September 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/21 - Doing the Twist Alright…
Good Morning,
Stock futures are mixed this morning with tech leading and transports lagging. The dollar is higher, bonds are slightly higher, oil is slightly higher, gold is down a sliver, while silver is up, and food commodities are a mixed can of veggies.
The hypocritical Mortgage Bankers Association says that Purchase Application fell 4.7% in the past week, but that Refinancing activity increased 2.2%. At least we don’t have phony double-digit one week moves, here’s Econoday:
Existing Home Sales are released at 10:00 Eastern, followed by Bernanke flapping his nonsensical lips about the “Twist” at 2:15 Eastern. Remember that home sales are now transitioning to the back side of the Option-ARM reset curve, a heavy anchor that is now in the process of getting lighter.
Again, for those who are being fooled by this “Twist” operation, please wake up and smell the coffee. Think about the math… you cannot have something for nothing, you cannot take from short yields to suppress the long end without losing control of the short end. Math. That’s why I say that “Twist” will NOT be net neutral, they MUST backfill that which they take from the short end, and that means more money printing – period.
Should they not backfill the short end, then you would see the money aggregates begin to collapse – they cannot let that happen, even though at some point it MUST happen.
Once again for anyone who hasn’t read this before… We have experienced Macroeconomic debt saturation. Adding more debt into that situation beyond the saturation point only works to drag down the economy which must service all the principal and interest. Servicing all that debt is what kills monetary velocity – the money simply circles back around to the bank. Past the saturation point new debt is used to service old debt, and there is not enough income left over to create real growth or real jobs.
Below is the chart of the Base Money versus the Mean Duration of Unemployment. This relationship will not change until the debt is cleared back below the saturation point:
Those closest to the production of money win, while those farther from it lose. CNN finally did an article showing the effect this has had on the middle-class over the past decade. I wrote an entire chapter on it in my book called “The Middle-Class Squeeze,” and here is the chart depicting it after the fact:
Keep in mind that they are using FALSE government statistics to correct for inflation. Real inflation is multiples of reported inflation, and therefore the real effect of the middle-class squeeze is even more dramatic than that chart depicts. Lost decade? Get ready for more. Get real, stay real. Get involved in things not built around paper fluff.
Here’s Arnie Gunderson with more solid information on the Fukushima disaster and the way in which these reactors are designed with vulnerabilities which leave many around the world exposed to these dangers:
Hey, anytime your government is backing up private central bankers who refer to themselves as a branch of the government - when in fact they are not Federal, they possess NO reserves, and they are not even a bank – and now they are talking about the “Twist?” Oh yeah, it’s twisted all right, don’t be fooled by their slight of hand tricks, keep your eye on the ball, and don’t let them twist reality into something it’s not!
Stock futures are mixed this morning with tech leading and transports lagging. The dollar is higher, bonds are slightly higher, oil is slightly higher, gold is down a sliver, while silver is up, and food commodities are a mixed can of veggies.
The hypocritical Mortgage Bankers Association says that Purchase Application fell 4.7% in the past week, but that Refinancing activity increased 2.2%. At least we don’t have phony double-digit one week moves, here’s Econoday:
Highlights
The purchase index fell 4.7 percent in the September 16 week to end a brief run of improvement. On a four-week basis, the purchase index is down 1/2 percent in a reading that doesn't point to strength in underlying home sales. The refinance index rose 2.2 percent in the week with the four-week average down 3.9 percent. The average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) is unchanged at 4.29 percent with jumbo loan balances ($417,500 or more) down two basis points to 4.55 percent.
Existing Home Sales are released at 10:00 Eastern, followed by Bernanke flapping his nonsensical lips about the “Twist” at 2:15 Eastern. Remember that home sales are now transitioning to the back side of the Option-ARM reset curve, a heavy anchor that is now in the process of getting lighter.
Again, for those who are being fooled by this “Twist” operation, please wake up and smell the coffee. Think about the math… you cannot have something for nothing, you cannot take from short yields to suppress the long end without losing control of the short end. Math. That’s why I say that “Twist” will NOT be net neutral, they MUST backfill that which they take from the short end, and that means more money printing – period.
Should they not backfill the short end, then you would see the money aggregates begin to collapse – they cannot let that happen, even though at some point it MUST happen.
Once again for anyone who hasn’t read this before… We have experienced Macroeconomic debt saturation. Adding more debt into that situation beyond the saturation point only works to drag down the economy which must service all the principal and interest. Servicing all that debt is what kills monetary velocity – the money simply circles back around to the bank. Past the saturation point new debt is used to service old debt, and there is not enough income left over to create real growth or real jobs.
Below is the chart of the Base Money versus the Mean Duration of Unemployment. This relationship will not change until the debt is cleared back below the saturation point:
Those closest to the production of money win, while those farther from it lose. CNN finally did an article showing the effect this has had on the middle-class over the past decade. I wrote an entire chapter on it in my book called “The Middle-Class Squeeze,” and here is the chart depicting it after the fact:
A rough 10 years for the middle class
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- It's official. The first decade of the 21st century will go down in the history books as a step back for the American middle class.
Last week, the government made gloomy headlines when it released the latest census report showing the poverty rate rose to a 17-year high. A whopping 46.2 million people (or 15.1% of the U.S. population) live in poverty and 49.9 million live without health insurance.
But the data also gave the first glimpse of what happened to middle-class incomes in the first decade of the millennium. While the earnings of middle-income Americans have barely budged since the mid 1970s, the new data showed that from 2000 to 2010, they actually regressed.
For American households in the middle of the pay scale, income fell to $49,445 last year, when adjusted for inflation, a level not seen since 1996.
And over the 10-year period, their income is down 7%.
"Economists talk about the lost decade in Japan. Well, with these 2010 data, we can confirm the lost decade for the American middle class," said Jared Bernstein, senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
Keep in mind that they are using FALSE government statistics to correct for inflation. Real inflation is multiples of reported inflation, and therefore the real effect of the middle-class squeeze is even more dramatic than that chart depicts. Lost decade? Get ready for more. Get real, stay real. Get involved in things not built around paper fluff.
Here’s Arnie Gunderson with more solid information on the Fukushima disaster and the way in which these reactors are designed with vulnerabilities which leave many around the world exposed to these dangers:
Hey, anytime your government is backing up private central bankers who refer to themselves as a branch of the government - when in fact they are not Federal, they possess NO reserves, and they are not even a bank – and now they are talking about the “Twist?” Oh yeah, it’s twisted all right, don’t be fooled by their slight of hand tricks, keep your eye on the ball, and don’t let them twist reality into something it’s not!
Selasa, 20 September 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/20 - Bye Bye American Pie Edition...
Good Morning,
Equity futures are higher this morning… why? Well, let’s see… ummm… Italy was downgraded. Ummm… rates are blowing out all over Europe. Ummm… the possibility of more theft from the people and injections into the banks is lifting those animal spirits and feeding an HFT frenzy in front of the Central Criminal announcing that he’s doing the “twist” tomorrow? Yeah, that would be it – and the markets have not yet figured out that doing the “twist” is just the latest euphemism for printing money. It will amount to the same exact thing as “Quantitative Easing” only with one more step involved to throw you off the trail of common sense, thus the “twist.”
And thus we have the opposite of yesterday, with the dollar down, Euro up, bonds down, oil up (slightly), gold up, silver flat, and food commodities higher. Actually several of the major commodities, like oil, are bouncing off support, a break of which would be quite bearish.
This morning Housing Starts for the month of August came in substantially lower, falling from July’s 604,000 (revised lower) to 571,000. Housing starts fell off a cliff and went splat on the plateau below, this is right in the range of that plateau. Permits did rise, but they have done so before and not all will turn into completions in this environment, here’s econohope:
The FOMC announcement will come tomorrow, failure to announce “the twist” will be negative as it’s getting baked into the pie. This will appear innocuous and will be ignored by the media and most people who are not paying attention. A large percentage of those who are paying attention will also be fooled into thinking it is a simple shift out the yield curve. It will not be. Keep your eye on the ball – what will happen is they will “twist” short term debt into long term debt to drive down yields on the long end, but THEY MUST backfill that on the short end otherwise short rates would spike. That won’t happen because they will be QE’ing with their left hand while they are talking about what they are doing with their right hand.
Palm, Simulation, Switch, Misdirection!
When it comes to the “twist,” watch the left hand if you can (you can’t because they refuse to open their books). Thus you need to get and stay real until they are removed from the stage.
California is finally making a move cut out the criminal enterprise from their state. Creating a state chartered bank is definitely the right thing to do, everyone should be supporting this movement as Bill Still suggests in the video below:
Equity futures are higher this morning… why? Well, let’s see… ummm… Italy was downgraded. Ummm… rates are blowing out all over Europe. Ummm… the possibility of more theft from the people and injections into the banks is lifting those animal spirits and feeding an HFT frenzy in front of the Central Criminal announcing that he’s doing the “twist” tomorrow? Yeah, that would be it – and the markets have not yet figured out that doing the “twist” is just the latest euphemism for printing money. It will amount to the same exact thing as “Quantitative Easing” only with one more step involved to throw you off the trail of common sense, thus the “twist.”
And thus we have the opposite of yesterday, with the dollar down, Euro up, bonds down, oil up (slightly), gold up, silver flat, and food commodities higher. Actually several of the major commodities, like oil, are bouncing off support, a break of which would be quite bearish.
This morning Housing Starts for the month of August came in substantially lower, falling from July’s 604,000 (revised lower) to 571,000. Housing starts fell off a cliff and went splat on the plateau below, this is right in the range of that plateau. Permits did rise, but they have done so before and not all will turn into completions in this environment, here’s econohope:
Highlights
The housing starts report for August was mixed as starts dipped while permits rose moderately. Housing starts declined 5.0 percent in August, following a 2.3 percent decrease in July. The August annualized pace of 0.571 million units posted lower than the median projection for 0.592 million units and is down 5.8 percent on a year-ago basis. The dip in August was led by a 13.5 percent fall in the multifamily component, following a 7.2 percent gain in July. The single-family component edged down 1.4 percent after a 5.8 percent decrease the month before.
By region, the fall in starts was led by a 29.1 percent plunge in the Northeast.
However, a rebound in permits suggests that some of the weakness in starts was weather related as Hurricane Irene likely weighed on new groundbreaking. In contrast, housing permits rebounded 3.2 percent, following a 2.6 percent contraction in July. Permit issuance is less affected by weather since they issued indoors. The August pace of 0.620 million units annualized printed above analysts' expectation for 0.590 million. Permits in August are up 7.8 percent on a year-ago basis.
On the news, equity futures edged down while rates were little changed.
The FOMC announcement will come tomorrow, failure to announce “the twist” will be negative as it’s getting baked into the pie. This will appear innocuous and will be ignored by the media and most people who are not paying attention. A large percentage of those who are paying attention will also be fooled into thinking it is a simple shift out the yield curve. It will not be. Keep your eye on the ball – what will happen is they will “twist” short term debt into long term debt to drive down yields on the long end, but THEY MUST backfill that on the short end otherwise short rates would spike. That won’t happen because they will be QE’ing with their left hand while they are talking about what they are doing with their right hand.
Palm, Simulation, Switch, Misdirection!
When it comes to the “twist,” watch the left hand if you can (you can’t because they refuse to open their books). Thus you need to get and stay real until they are removed from the stage.
California is finally making a move cut out the criminal enterprise from their state. Creating a state chartered bank is definitely the right thing to do, everyone should be supporting this movement as Bill Still suggests in the video below:
Senin, 19 September 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/19 - Old Man Market Edition…
Good Morning,
Stocks are tumbling this morning with the dollar higher, Euro lower, bonds higher, oil is down, gold & silver are down, and food commodities are falling in the midst of an obvious correction.
$3 trillion in cuts on the backs of the wealthy doesn’t exactly sound like it would produce a roaring stock market, so low and behold some more of the fluff is removed. Damned if they do, damned if they don’t is the exact situation debt saturation produces. What matters is WHO controls the production of money. As long as the private central banks are in control the situation will remain impossible, backed by impossible math.
The economic data is pretty slim this week, primarily housing data and the FOMC clowns utter their nonsense on Wednesday while their minions on Wall Street wait with baited breath. This morning the Housing Market Index fell from the deep depression level of only 15 to 14. Plop. Thud.
Don’t worry though, on my commute back and forth to the boat show this past week I keep being reassured by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) that they have our back and are in there fighting for us! LOL, like those cheerleading monkeys weren’t and aren’t a huge complicit part of the problem. They were, and they still are.
The market never did move out of that nasty looking flag, and in fact just produced a lower high which now looks an awful lot like a Head & Shoulder’s pattern. Should we break below the bottom of that flag/ pattern, we may be in for quite the ride ahead shortly:
Stocks are tumbling this morning with the dollar higher, Euro lower, bonds higher, oil is down, gold & silver are down, and food commodities are falling in the midst of an obvious correction.
$3 trillion in cuts on the backs of the wealthy doesn’t exactly sound like it would produce a roaring stock market, so low and behold some more of the fluff is removed. Damned if they do, damned if they don’t is the exact situation debt saturation produces. What matters is WHO controls the production of money. As long as the private central banks are in control the situation will remain impossible, backed by impossible math.
The economic data is pretty slim this week, primarily housing data and the FOMC clowns utter their nonsense on Wednesday while their minions on Wall Street wait with baited breath. This morning the Housing Market Index fell from the deep depression level of only 15 to 14. Plop. Thud.
Don’t worry though, on my commute back and forth to the boat show this past week I keep being reassured by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) that they have our back and are in there fighting for us! LOL, like those cheerleading monkeys weren’t and aren’t a huge complicit part of the problem. They were, and they still are.
The market never did move out of that nasty looking flag, and in fact just produced a lower high which now looks an awful lot like a Head & Shoulder’s pattern. Should we break below the bottom of that flag/ pattern, we may be in for quite the ride ahead shortly:
Sabtu, 17 September 2011
Jumat, 16 September 2011
Market Thread 9/16
Good Morning,
Have to leave early this morning, thus no update today. Please use this post as today's Daily Thread. Thank you to all who have been contributing to the conversation in my absence.
Here's a fitting tune for the "coordinated action" by the central banks (debt pushers) to "save" Europe (from the central banks):
Have to leave early this morning, thus no update today. Please use this post as today's Daily Thread. Thank you to all who have been contributing to the conversation in my absence.
Here's a fitting tune for the "coordinated action" by the central banks (debt pushers) to "save" Europe (from the central banks):
Kamis, 15 September 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/15
Good Morning,
Quick update today, just the facts as I have limited time prior to the boat show.
CPI came in hotter than expected. Remember yesterday I said that PPI leads… Econoguess said CPI may also reflect the turn down, but I say that will come later, CPI follows:
The Empire State Report is horrid:
Jobless Claims are still horrid:
Industrial Production is weakening, and Capacity Utilization is still in depression territory even after years of real contraction:
The Philly Fed Survey is released at 10:00 Eastern.
Have a great day, get real, stay real!
Quick update today, just the facts as I have limited time prior to the boat show.
CPI came in hotter than expected. Remember yesterday I said that PPI leads… Econoguess said CPI may also reflect the turn down, but I say that will come later, CPI follows:
Highlights
Inflation at the consumer level remained surprisingly warm in August. The consumer price index in August barely slowed to a 0.4 percent increase, following a strong 0.5 percent jump in July. The August figure exceeded the median projection for a 0.2 percent increase. Excluding food and energy, the CPI rose 0.2 percent, matching the pace the month before.
For major components, energy continued to rise with a 1.2 percent increase after rebounding 2.8 percent in July. Gasoline increased 1.9 percent, following a 4.7 percent jump in July. Food price inflation accelerated, rising 0.5 percent after jumping 0.4 percent the prior month.
Within the core, shelter and apparel were the biggest contributors to the gain. Shelter rose 0.2 percent while apparel jumped 1.1 percent with the latter likely feeling pressure from higher costs for materials. Overall, most of the core's major components posted increases, additionally including used cars and trucks, medical care, household furnishings and operations, recreation, tobacco, and personal care. The new vehicles index, unchanged for the second month in a row, was an exception.
Year-on-year, overall CPI inflation worsened to 3.8 percent from 3.6 percent (seasonally adjusted) in July. The core rate accelerated to 2.0 percent from 1.8 percent on a year-ago basis. On an unadjusted year-ago basis, the headline number was up 3.8 percent in August and the core was up 2.0 percent.
With today's report, the core CPI hit the upper bound of the Fed's implicit inflation target range of 1.5 to 2.0 percent. This will make it tougher for the doves in the FOMC to argue for another round of monetary ease. Equity futures fell back at the time of the release on a rise in jobless claims and a weak Empire State.
The Empire State Report is horrid:
Highlights
Business conditions in the New York manufacturing region continue to contract at a steady but mild rate based on the Empire State index which, at minus 8.82 this month, shows its fourth straight negative single-digit reading. New orders, the most important leading indicator in the report, are also in the negative column for the fourth straight month at minus 8.00. Unfilled orders, at minus 7.61, are down for the third straight month. Strength in orders earlier in the year had been keeping shipments up but not any more with this reading falling convincingly into negative column at minus 12.88. Employment, which like shipments also lags orders, also fell into the negative column, to minus 5.46 this month. This report offers the first indication on August conditions in the manufacturing sector and the news is disappointing.
Jobless Claims are still horrid:
Highlights
Jobless claims jumped 11,000 in the September 10 week to an unexpectedly high 428,000. The prior week was revised 3,000 higher to 417,000. The Labor Department isn't citing any effect from Hurricane Irene though last week the department said they did see the possibility of the small upward revision to the September 3 week. Though there's no special factors for the September 10 week, the week was shortened by the Labor Day holiday which may be creating some noise. But a look at the four-week average isn't encouraging, up 4,000 to 419,500 for the fourth straight gain with the level more than 15,000 higher than the month-ago comparison.
Continuing claims for the September 3 week fell 12,000 to 3.726 million with the four-week average up 1,000 to 3.741 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged for the fifth straight week at 3.0 percent.
This report will likely lower the initial outlook for the September employment report and, especially given the string of other unwelcome economic news this morning, is likely to weigh on the stock market.
Industrial Production is weakening, and Capacity Utilization is still in depression territory even after years of real contraction:
After a strong July, manufacturing slowed significantly in August but remained positive. However, a continuing rebound in auto assemblies kept the manufacturing gain strong. Overall industrial production in in August rose 0.2 percent, following a 0.9 percent jump the month before (no revision). The August number came in a little higher than the market median forecast for a 0.1 percent uptick.
By major industry, manufacturing remained strong with a 0.5 percent rise after a robust 0.6 percent gain in July (no revision). The auto component advanced another 1.7 percent after a rebound of 4.5 percent in July. Outside of autos, manufacturing is still healthy. Excluding motor vehicles, manufacturing rose 0.4 percent, following a 0.3 percent increase the prior month.
In other major sectors, utilities output fell back 3.0 percent after surging 2.8 percent in July on atypically hot weather. Mining output grew 1.2 percent after increasing 1.1 percent in July.
On a year-on-year basis, overall industrial production was up 3.4 percent in August, matching the pace in July.
Overall capacity utilization in August edged up to 77.4 percent from 77.3 percent the prior month (originally 77.5). The August rate posted slightly lower than analysts' estimate for 77.5 percent.
Despite the negativism in various manufacturing surveys, national production numbers continue to look good-especially for manufacturing. On the news, equity futures rose modestly.
The Philly Fed Survey is released at 10:00 Eastern.
Have a great day, get real, stay real!
Rabu, 14 September 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/14 - Americans in Deep Edition...
Good Morning,
Equity futures are higher this morning despite the continued flow of negative data. The dollar, of course, has to be lower for this to occur, bonds are also slightly lower, oil is lower, gold & silver are both slightly lower, and most food commodities are only slightly more palatable at this morning’s level.
The still very much conflicted Mortgage Banker’s Association reported their still not believable American’s in Deeper Purchase Applications for the shortened prior holiday week. Purchase Applications, according to them and their adjustments, were up a whopping 7%, and Refinancing activity rose 6%. Not believable, sorry… not even in the slightest little bit do I believe that. Here’s Econogullible:
With macroeconomic debt saturation, Americans are in deep all right. The “Fed’s” overproduction and then manipulation of credit flows has helped to feed waves of inflation and deflation. Lately, the data has been pointing to inflation with a skyrocketing money supply, and now the inflation data, as trumped-up as it is, is pointing to inflation rounding the corner and heading back down. Here’s the PPI data, remember that the PPI leads the CPI, so it will take awhile for the wave to get going:
The “Fed” is almost always out of synch with the waves – this produces the same effect as Pilot Induced Oscillation. Because there is a time lag with their stimulus, if it really was going to work at all, they need to add the stimulus well BEFORE the next wave of deflation begins to show up. Once it shows up, sorry, too late and thus the cycle is fed out of phase by them and grows larger instead of smaller. Of course along the way they managed to saturate the entire globe, and thus their games will be coming to an end soon.
Retail Sales for August missed expectations by coming in at 0.0% versus the prior still weak .5%. Remember, this data is completely unreal as it fails miserably to correct for the devaluation of our money and also suffers from survivor bias. Still, here’s Econoday playing along:
The boat show is going great, a load of fun, many great leads, contacts, and opportunities coming out of it already, and still most of the week to go.
I’ll leave you for today with a graphic representation of America in Deep…
America Is A Country In Debt:
While politicians bicker about debt ceilings and government spending, American families suffer under an increasingly hefty debt load.
Equity futures are higher this morning despite the continued flow of negative data. The dollar, of course, has to be lower for this to occur, bonds are also slightly lower, oil is lower, gold & silver are both slightly lower, and most food commodities are only slightly more palatable at this morning’s level.
The still very much conflicted Mortgage Banker’s Association reported their still not believable American’s in Deeper Purchase Applications for the shortened prior holiday week. Purchase Applications, according to them and their adjustments, were up a whopping 7%, and Refinancing activity rose 6%. Not believable, sorry… not even in the slightest little bit do I believe that. Here’s Econogullible:
Highlights
In a shortened September 9 week that included Labor Day, the purchase index shot 7.0 percent higher with the refinance index up 6.0 percent. Mortgage bankers were busy in the week as interest rates came down with the average 30-year mortgage falling six basis points to an extremely low 4.17 percent. But the purchase index, which before this week had been long lifeless, will have to extend its gains in the upcoming weeks before it signals strength in the underlying housing market. Next data on the housing sector will be the home builders' housing market index on Monday.
With macroeconomic debt saturation, Americans are in deep all right. The “Fed’s” overproduction and then manipulation of credit flows has helped to feed waves of inflation and deflation. Lately, the data has been pointing to inflation with a skyrocketing money supply, and now the inflation data, as trumped-up as it is, is pointing to inflation rounding the corner and heading back down. Here’s the PPI data, remember that the PPI leads the CPI, so it will take awhile for the wave to get going:
Highlights
Inflation eased in August at the producer level despite a surge in food prices. Producer prices in August were unchanged percent after rebounding 0.2 percent in July. The August figure was marginally higher than the consensus forecast for a 0.1 percent decline. By major components, energy fell 1.0 percent after dipping 0.6 percent the month before. Gasoline dropped 1.0 percent, following a 2.8 percent decrease in July. Food costs, in contrast, surged 1.1 percent after jumping 0.6 percent the month before.
At the core level, PPI inflation slowed to a 0.1 percent pace after accelerating to 0.4 percent in July. Analysts had projected an increase of 0.2 percent. Weakness in the core included declines in prices for passenger cars (down 0.4 percent) and computers (down 2.6 percent). On the upside, the leader was tires (up 1.4 percent) which contributed over twenty percent of the August increase in the core. Higher prices for radio and television communication equipment also contributed to the rise in the finished core index.
For the overall PPI, the year-ago pace in August came in at 6.5 percent, compared to 7.2 percent in July (seasonally adjusted). The core rate in July held steady at 2.5 percent on a year-ago basis (seasonally adjusted). On a not seasonally adjusted basis for August, the year-ago headline PPI was up 6.5 percent while the core was up 2.5 percent.
Inflation is slowing at the producer level and this portends well for tomorrow's CPI. The Fed will need good inflation numbers before enacting another round of monetary easing.
The “Fed” is almost always out of synch with the waves – this produces the same effect as Pilot Induced Oscillation. Because there is a time lag with their stimulus, if it really was going to work at all, they need to add the stimulus well BEFORE the next wave of deflation begins to show up. Once it shows up, sorry, too late and thus the cycle is fed out of phase by them and grows larger instead of smaller. Of course along the way they managed to saturate the entire globe, and thus their games will be coming to an end soon.
Retail Sales for August missed expectations by coming in at 0.0% versus the prior still weak .5%. Remember, this data is completely unreal as it fails miserably to correct for the devaluation of our money and also suffers from survivor bias. Still, here’s Econoday playing along:
Highlights
Retail sales in August came in softer than expected. By type of sales, numbers were about evenly mixed. Overall retail sales in August slowed to flat (no change) after rising 0.3 percent in July (originally up 0.5 percent). The August figure was below the market median estimate for a 0.2 percent boost.
Excluding autos, edged up 0.1 percent, following a 0.3 percent rise in July (originally 0.5 percent). The consensus had called for a 0.3 percent increase. Gasoline sales rose 0.3 percent after jumping 0.9 percent in July. Sales excluding autos and gasoline in August increased 0.1 percent, following a 0.2 percent rise in July.
Leading the increase were electronics & appliance stores and sporting goods, hobby & book stores. Tugging down, the notables were miscellaneous store retailers and also clothing stores.
Outside of autos and gasoline, sales were mixed. Leading the increase were electronics & appliance stores (up 0.5 percent) and sporting goods, hobby & book stores (up 2.4 percent). Tugging down, the notables were miscellaneous store retailers (down 2.2 percent) and also clothing stores (down 0.7 percent).
Retail sales on a year-ago basis in August came in at 7.2 percent, compared to 8.3 percent in July. Excluding motor vehicles, sales were up 7.3 percent on a year-on-year basis, compared to 8.4 percent the month before.
Clearly, the August retail sales numbers are somewhat disappointing. Hurricane Irene likely dampened sales a bit on the East Coast and we will need to see September numbers for further evaluation. Still, it looks like the consumer is being more cautious after the political circus over the debt ceiling legislation and retrenchment in equities.
On the initial release, equity futures eased.
The boat show is going great, a load of fun, many great leads, contacts, and opportunities coming out of it already, and still most of the week to go.
I’ll leave you for today with a graphic representation of America in Deep…
America Is A Country In Debt:
While politicians bicker about debt ceilings and government spending, American families suffer under an increasingly hefty debt load.
Selasa, 13 September 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/13 - Helplessly Hoping Edition…
Good Morning,
Equity futures are close to even this morning after being down overnight. The dollar is flat, bonds are down slightly, oil is higher, gold & silver are higher, and food commodities slightly lower.
The market and the economy continue to rely on manipulations, false rumors, money injections, paper clips, balsa wood, and whatever else the central bankers can come up with to attempt to fool people into believing they have the impossible math under control. They don’t. They certainly don’t in Europe where the nonsense of China bailing out Italy is just another formerly prosecutable offense of manipulation, but in today’s world is not only ignored but championed by our former regulators.
Below you can see how prices yesterday fell out of the flag/ channel, but then “miraculously” recovered just before the close:
Hey, I’ve got a rumor for you… the markets aren’t “free” and they’re not really “markets” either.
Oh wait, that’s not a rumor, that’s fact, sorry.
On one hand Obama says “this recession” is terrible… then on the other we hear how things are improving and that we’re in “recovery.” Sad, the manipulation looks to me an awful lot like an abusive father manipulating a child. But the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index continues to expose the lies for what they are. Here’s Econoalwaysapositiveside:
Of course the NFIB itself doesn’t pull any punches stating, “Confidence in the future of the economy crashed in August…”
That’s all you need to know, but the NFIB is one of the few truth telling organizations out there so their report is definitely worth a read. Be sure to look at the cover and how low each segment is, and how far they dropped in August:
NFIB Small Business Confidence August
Import and Export Prices continue to be hot as a pistol, even by our false measurements that fail to adjust properly for the true devaluation of our money. Import prices fell .4%, but export prices rose .5%, giving us year over year readings of 9.6% for Export Prices and 13% for Import Prices. Hey, where’s that 2% inflation the “Fed” keeps yammering about? Here’s Econofool:
Gee, are new records in this data a good thing?
This weekend someone in the Open Thread posted a chart showing the rise in educational debt. Not only another bubble, but abuse of the populace that speaks to the prior articles I wrote on the subject of universities sticking it to the students who wind up debt slaves, while Wall Street "engineers" profits in grotesque endowment funds that are not used for their intended purposes:
Helplessly hoping college students too.
Back to the Boat Show, again come on by if you can!
Equity futures are close to even this morning after being down overnight. The dollar is flat, bonds are down slightly, oil is higher, gold & silver are higher, and food commodities slightly lower.
The market and the economy continue to rely on manipulations, false rumors, money injections, paper clips, balsa wood, and whatever else the central bankers can come up with to attempt to fool people into believing they have the impossible math under control. They don’t. They certainly don’t in Europe where the nonsense of China bailing out Italy is just another formerly prosecutable offense of manipulation, but in today’s world is not only ignored but championed by our former regulators.
Below you can see how prices yesterday fell out of the flag/ channel, but then “miraculously” recovered just before the close:
Hey, I’ve got a rumor for you… the markets aren’t “free” and they’re not really “markets” either.
Oh wait, that’s not a rumor, that’s fact, sorry.
On one hand Obama says “this recession” is terrible… then on the other we hear how things are improving and that we’re in “recovery.” Sad, the manipulation looks to me an awful lot like an abusive father manipulating a child. But the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index continues to expose the lies for what they are. Here’s Econoalwaysapositiveside:
Highlights
Confidence among small businesses fell for the sixth straight month, down 1.8 points in August to 88.1. The top problem is sales where more firms are currently in a downtrend than an uptrend which in turn is hurting earnings. Expectations for future sales are also in decline. Only five percent of the sample say it's a good time to expand. On the positive side, more firms plan to create new jobs over the next three months and more are reporting unfilled job openings.
Of course the NFIB itself doesn’t pull any punches stating, “Confidence in the future of the economy crashed in August…”
That’s all you need to know, but the NFIB is one of the few truth telling organizations out there so their report is definitely worth a read. Be sure to look at the cover and how low each segment is, and how far they dropped in August:
NFIB Small Business Confidence August
Import and Export Prices continue to be hot as a pistol, even by our false measurements that fail to adjust properly for the true devaluation of our money. Import prices fell .4%, but export prices rose .5%, giving us year over year readings of 9.6% for Export Prices and 13% for Import Prices. Hey, where’s that 2% inflation the “Fed” keeps yammering about? Here’s Econofool:
Highlights
A monthly decline in prices of imported petroleum products pulled total import prices 0.4 percent lower in August, results that should firm consensus expectations for mild readings in tomorrow's producer price report and Thursday's report on consumer prices. Prices for petroleum imports fell 2.1 percent in August which fed through to a 0.9 percent decline for industrial supplies. Year-on-year rates eased slightly in the month, to plus 13.0 percent for total import prices and to plus 43.5 percent for petroleum products. Importantly, price pressures for finished products remain mute, up 0.1 percent for capital goods to a year-on-year rate of plus 1.4 percent and up 0.3 percent for ex-auto consumer goods to a plus 2.0 percent year-on-year rate.
On the export side, a rise in agricultural prices pushed total export prices up 0.5 percent. Agricultural prices rose 2.2 percent in the month. Year-on-year rates are little changed at plus 9.6 percent for total export prices and at plus 23.9 percent for agricultural prices. Export prices for capital goods were unchanged for a year-on-year rate of plus 1.3 percent while consumer goods ex-autos rose 0.2 percent for a year-on-year rate of plus 5.9 percent which, in an isolated sign of price pressure at the finished goods level, is up from 5.7 percent in July for a new record.
Gee, are new records in this data a good thing?
This weekend someone in the Open Thread posted a chart showing the rise in educational debt. Not only another bubble, but abuse of the populace that speaks to the prior articles I wrote on the subject of universities sticking it to the students who wind up debt slaves, while Wall Street "engineers" profits in grotesque endowment funds that are not used for their intended purposes:
Helplessly hoping college students too.
Back to the Boat Show, again come on by if you can!
Senin, 12 September 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/12 - Running on Empty Edition…
Good Morning,
Markets are lower again this morning with Europe leading the way in the mess department – for now (it will be our turn again soon). The dollar rallied but then gave it back to be basically flat, bonds did the same thing as the dollar, oil is flat, gold & silver are down, and food commodities are down slightly.
There’s nothing on the economic calendar today, but the rest of the week is busy with inflation, manufacturing, and regional “Fed” data. Oh, and if the “Consumer” still matters, we’ll see Consumer Sentiment later too. Which reminds me… remember when the manufacturing data was important, decades ago now? Well, when that data was slipping, and slipping, and then still slipping some more – the media and pundits decided it didn’t matter anymore because the “new economy” was based on service. That’s right, service for “Consumers” was the new economy, but now I guess that doesn’t even matter anymore because the new new economy is all about financial engineering, fraud, and pretending that real change isn’t needed. “Consumer Sentiment” doesn’t matter in the new new world (where private central bankers take & make).
The market has broken beneath the large flag that has formed over the past few weeks:
The target on the flag, as if it matters in this HFT Holographic “market,” is just above 1,000 on the S&P.
I’ll be attempting to sell real products at the Seattle Boats Afloat Show all week and thru next weekend, those products will be financed without bankers and will create jobs right here – what a concept. My updates will be very short, but I’ll at least get a Daily Thread started for everyone before I set off in the morning. Hope everyone has a great week, and hope that you all got real because the new new economy is running on empty…
Markets are lower again this morning with Europe leading the way in the mess department – for now (it will be our turn again soon). The dollar rallied but then gave it back to be basically flat, bonds did the same thing as the dollar, oil is flat, gold & silver are down, and food commodities are down slightly.
There’s nothing on the economic calendar today, but the rest of the week is busy with inflation, manufacturing, and regional “Fed” data. Oh, and if the “Consumer” still matters, we’ll see Consumer Sentiment later too. Which reminds me… remember when the manufacturing data was important, decades ago now? Well, when that data was slipping, and slipping, and then still slipping some more – the media and pundits decided it didn’t matter anymore because the “new economy” was based on service. That’s right, service for “Consumers” was the new economy, but now I guess that doesn’t even matter anymore because the new new economy is all about financial engineering, fraud, and pretending that real change isn’t needed. “Consumer Sentiment” doesn’t matter in the new new world (where private central bankers take & make).
The market has broken beneath the large flag that has formed over the past few weeks:
The target on the flag, as if it matters in this HFT Holographic “market,” is just above 1,000 on the S&P.
I’ll be attempting to sell real products at the Seattle Boats Afloat Show all week and thru next weekend, those products will be financed without bankers and will create jobs right here – what a concept. My updates will be very short, but I’ll at least get a Daily Thread started for everyone before I set off in the morning. Hope everyone has a great week, and hope that you all got real because the new new economy is running on empty…
Sabtu, 10 September 2011
Jumat, 09 September 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/9 - “Other Events” Will Produce Change Edition…
Good Morning,
Markets are tumbling once again today, the dollar is rising strongly, the euro is falling, bonds are rising, oil is down, Gold & Silver are down, and food commodities are holding their elevated position a little too stubbornly.
The big plan out of the President was rumored to be $300 billion, then it became $400 billion, then $447 billion… Whatever, it’s simply more of the same with no real way to pay for any of it. The pace of number expansion, while huge, is meeting stiff political resistance making the odds of actually seeing this pass much lower than the $700 billion TARP. Note that the emergency atmosphere isn’t anywhere near the point of TARP passing with threats of end of the world and Paulson water boarding politicians Dick Cheney style. No, it’s going to take a much greater emergency to get this passed, and the truth is there are actually parts of it that would be much more effective than just giving taxpayer money to the banks – not that I’m saying it would be effective, but at least you might get a school renovation or two out of it before the empire collapses.
And collapse it will – all exponential things collapse, and we are defined by our money.
Speaking of money, yesterday the update to M2 was released showing that it had grown by another $30.4 billion in just the past week. Note that since 1980, only 30 years, that M2 has expanded 6.3 times what it was. That amounts to a non-compounded annual rate over 31 years of “growth” (inflation) of 20.4%:
Just look at the effect on the Money Multiplier – all by itself this chart is telling you that debt saturation has occurred. The Multiplier and Velocity diminish because new money must be used to service the debt and therefore does not circulate, it simply returns back to the bank to service prior loans:
And when you look at the Monetary Base, it has risen about 13.5 times since 1980, equaling a non-compounded 43.5% rate per year over the past 31 years. Oh yeah, the “Fed” is all over that stability mandate:
But the Debt Saturation becomes very clear when you look at the base money and overlay the Mean Duration of Unemployment over top. The correlation cannot be denied, and I’m sure that if the basic unemployment statistics weren’t so skewed that they, too, would match these charts:
As I’ve been saying for years now, the math is impossible, it is growing exponentially, and all exponential systems collapse. This one will be no different, the physical world demands that it happens, you cannot fool math nor Mother Nature with financial engineering and accounting fraud – at least not forever.
And thus it’s safe to say that “other events” are coming. Are you scared? The boogyman ghost of 9/11 is threatening you know! Better spend a few hundred billion more that you don’t have. Maybe a few more false pretense wars for good measure, yeah, that’ll save us all.
Those who know what’s real and what’s not are not scared. They do not participate in the criminal’s “markets.” They don’t hang out on Wall Street. But those nasty “other events” can and will affect us all, that’s why in the end it will pay for those who got real.
Those “other events” are well in motion if you are paying attention. Of course Europe is crumbling with “other events” spinning out of their impossible math tornado, and as I look at my local county newspaper this morning, it is running a headline that reads “Officials chase unconfirmed al-Qaida bomb plot.” Not only that, but there’s another article discussing how 500 Longshoremen in Longview, Washington are resorting to their own "other events:"
When was the last time you heard of wildcat strikes that included kidnapping guards? Evidently this storming of the facility was in response to seeing their labor union leader being hauled off by police who are doing the dirty work of management – and don’t even realize how they are being used. Sounds kind of like the 1930s, doesn’t it? There are a lot of parallels, only this time it’s far worse – the math was fixable then, it is no longer, at least not within the central banker box that we’ve all lived our lives in. A new box is coming.
Markets are tumbling once again today, the dollar is rising strongly, the euro is falling, bonds are rising, oil is down, Gold & Silver are down, and food commodities are holding their elevated position a little too stubbornly.
The big plan out of the President was rumored to be $300 billion, then it became $400 billion, then $447 billion… Whatever, it’s simply more of the same with no real way to pay for any of it. The pace of number expansion, while huge, is meeting stiff political resistance making the odds of actually seeing this pass much lower than the $700 billion TARP. Note that the emergency atmosphere isn’t anywhere near the point of TARP passing with threats of end of the world and Paulson water boarding politicians Dick Cheney style. No, it’s going to take a much greater emergency to get this passed, and the truth is there are actually parts of it that would be much more effective than just giving taxpayer money to the banks – not that I’m saying it would be effective, but at least you might get a school renovation or two out of it before the empire collapses.
And collapse it will – all exponential things collapse, and we are defined by our money.
Speaking of money, yesterday the update to M2 was released showing that it had grown by another $30.4 billion in just the past week. Note that since 1980, only 30 years, that M2 has expanded 6.3 times what it was. That amounts to a non-compounded annual rate over 31 years of “growth” (inflation) of 20.4%:
Just look at the effect on the Money Multiplier – all by itself this chart is telling you that debt saturation has occurred. The Multiplier and Velocity diminish because new money must be used to service the debt and therefore does not circulate, it simply returns back to the bank to service prior loans:
And when you look at the Monetary Base, it has risen about 13.5 times since 1980, equaling a non-compounded 43.5% rate per year over the past 31 years. Oh yeah, the “Fed” is all over that stability mandate:
But the Debt Saturation becomes very clear when you look at the base money and overlay the Mean Duration of Unemployment over top. The correlation cannot be denied, and I’m sure that if the basic unemployment statistics weren’t so skewed that they, too, would match these charts:
As I’ve been saying for years now, the math is impossible, it is growing exponentially, and all exponential systems collapse. This one will be no different, the physical world demands that it happens, you cannot fool math nor Mother Nature with financial engineering and accounting fraud – at least not forever.
And thus it’s safe to say that “other events” are coming. Are you scared? The boogyman ghost of 9/11 is threatening you know! Better spend a few hundred billion more that you don’t have. Maybe a few more false pretense wars for good measure, yeah, that’ll save us all.
Those who know what’s real and what’s not are not scared. They do not participate in the criminal’s “markets.” They don’t hang out on Wall Street. But those nasty “other events” can and will affect us all, that’s why in the end it will pay for those who got real.
Those “other events” are well in motion if you are paying attention. Of course Europe is crumbling with “other events” spinning out of their impossible math tornado, and as I look at my local county newspaper this morning, it is running a headline that reads “Officials chase unconfirmed al-Qaida bomb plot.” Not only that, but there’s another article discussing how 500 Longshoremen in Longview, Washington are resorting to their own "other events:"
Early this morning in Longview, hundreds of Longshore workers stormed the port, overpowered security guards, damaged rail cars and dumped grain at the center of a labor dispute that has spread to other ports in the state, officials said.
Six guards were detained for a couple of hours after 500 or more Longshoremen broke down gates about 4:30 a.m. and smashed windows in the guard shack, said Longview Police Chief Jim Duscha.
No one was hurt, and nobody has been arrested. Most of the protesters returned to their union hall after cutting brake lines and spilling grain from a car at the EGT terminal, he said.
When was the last time you heard of wildcat strikes that included kidnapping guards? Evidently this storming of the facility was in response to seeing their labor union leader being hauled off by police who are doing the dirty work of management – and don’t even realize how they are being used. Sounds kind of like the 1930s, doesn’t it? There are a lot of parallels, only this time it’s far worse – the math was fixable then, it is no longer, at least not within the central banker box that we’ve all lived our lives in. A new box is coming.
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