Sabtu, 30 Juli 2011
Jumat, 29 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/29 - Productivity Not Edition...
Good Morning,
100% fraud, 100% of the time. That’s what happens when all the money you produce is backed by debt and the proceeds go to a few greedy narcissists instead of to the good of all the people. The GDP report this morning is simply more fraud that counts the creation of debt as productivity and yet still has to fudge reports to manipulate the people from who the narcissists are robbing.
Equities are lower still, the dollar is also lower, bonds are higher, oil is lower, gold & silver continue to shine against the turd colored backdrop, and food commodities are falling for today.
The Q2 GDP report stunk up the joint, coming in at a supposed +1.3% versus the 1.9% that was expected. Worse, this is the report where they correct the prior year and from that we learn that Q1’s reported 1.9% growth was really only .4%. Feel manipulated now? Did you buy into the BS growth story? Again, why would any American support this paradigm? The markets are false, the data is false, our money system is false. Again, my advice is to GET REAL when it comes to your “investing.”
Here’s Econohopeondope:
High but still underreported inflation, and little to no real productivity.
The Employment Cost Index rose, not due to higher pay mind you, but due to inflation in the cost of benefits provided. Inflation is inflation, and especially in healthcare where you are being robbed blind by the “insurance” industry, the cost of doing business is far outstripping real revenue earnings (not the trumped-up earnings touted by accounting fraudsters):
“Solid Growth?” Give us a break for crying out loud. The production of debt has never been, nor will it ever be "productivity."
The Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment come out just prior to 10 Eastern… for those who enjoy the masochistic manipulation of the “Fed” – can’t wait.
Hark! Is that the ring of truth I’m hearing from a man who’s been mostly telling the truth for years?
Ron looks tired – don’t blame him as I watch the dollar plummet on the open. Gold’s running into another record, too bad Paul believes in gold backing money – that part of the manipulation he doesn’t get. But he does get the WHO it is that’s at the root of the problem, and that makes him the closest politician out there.
The VIX remained above the upper Bollinger yesterday, no signal yet:
100% fraud all the time – the markets are not real, the data is not real. When it comes to investing the fruits of your hard labor, you need to GET REAL.
Rest in Peace Dan Peek of America…
100% fraud, 100% of the time. That’s what happens when all the money you produce is backed by debt and the proceeds go to a few greedy narcissists instead of to the good of all the people. The GDP report this morning is simply more fraud that counts the creation of debt as productivity and yet still has to fudge reports to manipulate the people from who the narcissists are robbing.
Equities are lower still, the dollar is also lower, bonds are higher, oil is lower, gold & silver continue to shine against the turd colored backdrop, and food commodities are falling for today.
The Q2 GDP report stunk up the joint, coming in at a supposed +1.3% versus the 1.9% that was expected. Worse, this is the report where they correct the prior year and from that we learn that Q1’s reported 1.9% growth was really only .4%. Feel manipulated now? Did you buy into the BS growth story? Again, why would any American support this paradigm? The markets are false, the data is false, our money system is false. Again, my advice is to GET REAL when it comes to your “investing.”
Here’s Econohopeondope:
Highlights
It's official but it's worse than believed. The soft patch continued into the second quarter as GDP growth for posted at a very sluggish 1.3 percent annualized rise, following a downwardly revised increase of 0.4 percent in the first quarter. Analysts had forecast a 1.9 percent boost for the latest quarter and the first quarter was previously estimated at 1.9 percent. Today's report includes standard annual revisions going back three years for most series.
Demand numbers improved but barely. Final sales of domestic product improved to up an annualized 1.1 percent from 0.0 percent (unchanged) in the first quarter (previously 0.6 percent). Final sales to domestic purchasers also nudged up, rising 0.5 percent from 0.4 percent in the prior period (previously 0.4 percent).
Most of the anemia in the second quarter came from the consumer sector which came to a screeching halt with a 0.1 annualized percent uptick in the first quarter, following a 2.1 percent rise the prior quarter. Government purchases declined modestly while gains were seen in net exports, business investment in structures and equipment, and even residential investment. Inventories nudged up.
Economy-wide inflation according to the GDP price index only incremental change in momentum, rising 2.3 percent, following an increase of 2.5 percent in the first quarter. Analysts expected a 2.0 percent gain.
High but still underreported inflation, and little to no real productivity.
The Employment Cost Index rose, not due to higher pay mind you, but due to inflation in the cost of benefits provided. Inflation is inflation, and especially in healthcare where you are being robbed blind by the “insurance” industry, the cost of doing business is far outstripping real revenue earnings (not the trumped-up earnings touted by accounting fraudsters):
Highlights
Increasing acceleration in benefit costs fed an outsized 0.7 percent second-quarter increase in the employment cost index, the largest increase of the recovery. Benefits, which make up 30 percent of the index, rose 1.3 percent on top of the first-quarter's 1.1 percent jump with wages & salaries, which make up the remaining 70 percent, showing no acceleration at plus 0.4 percent.
When stripping out government workers and looking at just the private sector, benefits rose a quarterly 1.6 percent vs 1.2 percent in the first quarter with wages & salaries showing incremental acceleration at plus 0.5 percent. Add these two together and total compensation in the private sector -- and this is a special sign of increasing pressure -- rose 0.8 percent vs 0.5 percent gains in the prior two quarters.
Year-on-year rates tell the same story with benefits up 3.6 percent vs 3.0 percent in the first quarter and wages & salaries unchanged at plus 1.6 percent. These readings are for both government and private workers combined. Total year-on-year compensation is up 2.2 percent from 2.0 percent in the first quarter. A look at just the private sector shows an outsized three tenths increase in the year-on-year rate to plus 2.3 percent.
If the economy were in a solid growth mode these results would definitely be a concern for Federal Reserve policy makers who keep a close eye on compensation and often comment in detail about benefit costs. But the economy, based if nothing else on this morning's accompanying release of GDP data, isn't in a solid growth mode, making these early signs of compensation inflation a distant secondary concern.
“Solid Growth?” Give us a break for crying out loud. The production of debt has never been, nor will it ever be "productivity."
The Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment come out just prior to 10 Eastern… for those who enjoy the masochistic manipulation of the “Fed” – can’t wait.
Hark! Is that the ring of truth I’m hearing from a man who’s been mostly telling the truth for years?
Ron looks tired – don’t blame him as I watch the dollar plummet on the open. Gold’s running into another record, too bad Paul believes in gold backing money – that part of the manipulation he doesn’t get. But he does get the WHO it is that’s at the root of the problem, and that makes him the closest politician out there.
The VIX remained above the upper Bollinger yesterday, no signal yet:
100% fraud all the time – the markets are not real, the data is not real. When it comes to investing the fruits of your hard labor, you need to GET REAL.
Rest in Peace Dan Peek of America…
Kamis, 28 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/28 – Kabuki Theatre of the Absurd Edition…
Good Morning,
Equity futures turned slightly positive this morning following a Weekly Jobless Claims Report at 398,000, a dip slightly below the psychological 400k mark. The dollar is higher, bonds are higher, oil is higher, gold & silver are flat, while food commodities rise enough to make one choke.
The Department of Labor reported that Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 398,000 from the prior 418,000 – which was revised higher of course. Econospin has no problem making this sound as good as possible, but even if it were believable, which it’s not, it’s still a jobs losing proposition. If this raises employment expectation, then prepare to be disappointed (again) as mass layoff announcements have been steady over the past couple of weeks. Here’s Econoshill:
Oh, then there’s this not reported unadjusted gem from the DOL, “The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending July 9 was 7,645,601, an increase of 320,152 from the previous week.” Oh yeah, go long the phony stock market based upon phony data – that’s a winner of an “investment.”
Pending Home Sales are released at 10 Eastern. Tomorrow brings the first guess at Q2 GDP. A whopping 1.9% is the group of clown’s guess. I say that real GDP is very negative and has been for more than a decade now.
Yesterday the VIX shot up and closed over the top of the upper Bollinger Band, that sets up a potential market buy signal once we have a close back inside the bands:
The major indices are all getting close to the bottom Bollinger, with the Transports closing beneath it yesterday.
If there’s one positive about this debt ceiling Kabuki, it’s that it’s giving the debt much needed attention. If only that attention was based in reality… sigh. The involvement of the rating agencies is putrid. That group of clowns is as conflicted as the day is long. If they were even close to honest they would admit that America is already in default, that is exactly what Quantitative Easing is. Our “rating” certainly would not be triple-A. Thus the rating agencies are complicit in allowing the government to run a shell/Ponzi game – had they taken action to downgrade our debt long ago, then perhaps the math would have never become so impossible. Everyone was silent for far too long, that’s because the system depends upon their complicity. Calling this “debate” Kabuki is an insult to the Asian art – let’s face it, we’re talking about the theatre of the absurd.
Back to doing and investing in something REAL.
Equity futures turned slightly positive this morning following a Weekly Jobless Claims Report at 398,000, a dip slightly below the psychological 400k mark. The dollar is higher, bonds are higher, oil is higher, gold & silver are flat, while food commodities rise enough to make one choke.
The Department of Labor reported that Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 398,000 from the prior 418,000 – which was revised higher of course. Econospin has no problem making this sound as good as possible, but even if it were believable, which it’s not, it’s still a jobs losing proposition. If this raises employment expectation, then prepare to be disappointed (again) as mass layoff announcements have been steady over the past couple of weeks. Here’s Econoshill:
Highlights
Initial jobless claims dropped a very sharp 24,000 in the July 23 week to 398,000 for the first sub-400,000 reading since early April (in a partial offset the prior week was revised 4,000 higher to 422,000). The four-week average of 413,750 is down a steep 8,500 in the week for a nearly 15,000 improvement from the month-ago reading, a comparison that points to improvement for the monthly jobs report.
Continuing claims have also been coming down, down 17,000 in the July 16 week to 3.703 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is down one tenth to 2.9 percent.
One factor that may cloud today's report is uncertainty about retooling in the auto sector, a factor where timing is always hard to gauge and where uncertainty is even greater this year due to ongoing production cutbacks tied to Japan. Minnesota, where the government is shut down, is also a special factor though the state did not provide any related details this week. Yet given that the Labor Department isn't citing any special factors, today's report offers badly needed good news for the stock market.
Oh, then there’s this not reported unadjusted gem from the DOL, “The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending July 9 was 7,645,601, an increase of 320,152 from the previous week.” Oh yeah, go long the phony stock market based upon phony data – that’s a winner of an “investment.”
Pending Home Sales are released at 10 Eastern. Tomorrow brings the first guess at Q2 GDP. A whopping 1.9% is the group of clown’s guess. I say that real GDP is very negative and has been for more than a decade now.
Yesterday the VIX shot up and closed over the top of the upper Bollinger Band, that sets up a potential market buy signal once we have a close back inside the bands:
The major indices are all getting close to the bottom Bollinger, with the Transports closing beneath it yesterday.
If there’s one positive about this debt ceiling Kabuki, it’s that it’s giving the debt much needed attention. If only that attention was based in reality… sigh. The involvement of the rating agencies is putrid. That group of clowns is as conflicted as the day is long. If they were even close to honest they would admit that America is already in default, that is exactly what Quantitative Easing is. Our “rating” certainly would not be triple-A. Thus the rating agencies are complicit in allowing the government to run a shell/Ponzi game – had they taken action to downgrade our debt long ago, then perhaps the math would have never become so impossible. Everyone was silent for far too long, that’s because the system depends upon their complicity. Calling this “debate” Kabuki is an insult to the Asian art – let’s face it, we’re talking about the theatre of the absurd.
Back to doing and investing in something REAL.
Rabu, 27 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/27 – Is there Anybody Out There Edition…
Good Morning,
Equity futures are lower again this morning, but not nearly as low as they should be for the lunacy that goes on. The dollar is slightly higher, bonds lower, yen higher still, oil still being held beneath $100, gold running for the roses now at $1,630, silver higher, and food commodities mixed with rice continuing to rise.
Durable Goods Orders were a big miss coming in at -2.1% in June, this is down from +1.9% and well below the +1.0% consensus. Here’s Econoexcuse:
What, the dog didn’t do it?
The completely conflicted and hypocritical Mortgage Banker’s Association reported that Purchase Applications fell 3.8% in the past week, and that Refinancing Activity fell 5.5% following their double-digit extreme nonsense the week prior. These people belong in prison, not creating unbelievable national economic statistics:
Yesterday’s New Home Sales was also a miss, construction still at depression levels.
The VIX continues to rise into the debt and IQ abyss, Holly Cross now in the rearview mirror:
Notice how the political Kabuki has people angry at the politicians instead of the bankers? They are way off point, for it is the central bankers who are at the very root of the debt problem – they created a system of debt money that benefits them, the only reason to be mad at politicians is for giving them the power in the first place, and for not taking it away in the second place. No More National Debt!
Equity futures are lower again this morning, but not nearly as low as they should be for the lunacy that goes on. The dollar is slightly higher, bonds lower, yen higher still, oil still being held beneath $100, gold running for the roses now at $1,630, silver higher, and food commodities mixed with rice continuing to rise.
Durable Goods Orders were a big miss coming in at -2.1% in June, this is down from +1.9% and well below the +1.0% consensus. Here’s Econoexcuse:
Highlights
Headline durables disappoint and ex transportation is soft but the picture is more complex. New factory orders for durables in June fell 2.1 percent, following a rebound of 1.9 percent the prior month (previously up 2.1 percent from the factory orders report). The June advance came in below the median forecast for a 1.0 percent rise. Excluding transportation, durables edged up 0.1 percent after rebounding 0.7 percent in May.
Transportation was the weakest component, dropping a sharp 8.5 percent, following a 5.8 percent rebound in May. All major subcomponents of transportation were down. For June, motor vehicles slipped 1.4 percent, nondefense aircraft dropped 28.9 percent, and defense aircraft fell 205 percent. But Boeing is expected to boost nondefense aircraft soon and autos are expected to recover from supply shortages from Japan.
Ex-autos, weakness was in machinery, down sharply. All other industries in ex autos were up.
Within ex-autos, machinery dropped 2.3 percent in June. On the positive side, gains were seen in primary metals, up 1.0 percent; computers & electronics, up 0.2 percent; electrical equipment, up 0.4 percent; and "other," up 0.2 percent.
So, the real picture is a mostly positive June with isolated weakness in transportation and machinery.
Focusing on investment, new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft have been volatile but slowly trending up. New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft slipped 0.4 percent in June, following a 1.7 percent gain the month before. Shipments for this series advanced 1.0 percent, following a 1.3 percent increase the month before.
Overall, the picture for durables manufacturing is mixed, though recovery from temporary weakness in nondefense aircraft and autos should bump up orders and production in durables manufacturing in coming months.
On the news, equity futures eased and Treasury rates nudged down.
What, the dog didn’t do it?
The completely conflicted and hypocritical Mortgage Banker’s Association reported that Purchase Applications fell 3.8% in the past week, and that Refinancing Activity fell 5.5% following their double-digit extreme nonsense the week prior. These people belong in prison, not creating unbelievable national economic statistics:
Highlights
The purchase index fell 3.8 percent in the July 22 week to extend a run of weakness that points to trouble for July home sales. The refinance index, which spiked higher earlier this month, fell back 5.5 percent. Rates moved slightly higher in the week with 30-year mortgages averaging 4.57 percent.
Yesterday’s New Home Sales was also a miss, construction still at depression levels.
The VIX continues to rise into the debt and IQ abyss, Holly Cross now in the rearview mirror:
Notice how the political Kabuki has people angry at the politicians instead of the bankers? They are way off point, for it is the central bankers who are at the very root of the debt problem – they created a system of debt money that benefits them, the only reason to be mad at politicians is for giving them the power in the first place, and for not taking it away in the second place. No More National Debt!
Selasa, 26 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/26 – Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap Edition...
Good Morning,
Equity futures are flat this morning prior to the open. This despite a dollar drilling a hole deeper than the Horizon oil well, the Yen is rising higher into the danger zone, oil is trying to get above $100 a barrel but looks like that well’s been capped (via manipulation), gold is slightly lower but still well above a stunning $1,600 an ounce, silver keeps rising, and food commodities are looking like squishy canned mixed veggies – very expensive ones.
Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales are released at 10 Eastern this morning and will be reported inside of today’s daily thread. Case-Shiller Home Price Data comes out just prior to the open, it too will be reported inside of the Daily thread.
Sickening is the feeling I had as Obama and Boehner both interrupted the evening news by taking their drivel to the people. Neither one mentioned their real agendas which I won’t even discuss as their games are just revolting – hostage taking for political gain is just one part of this corrupt sickness. None of this should be happening; we needn’t have any national debt whatsoever.
The VIX is feeding off this idiocy and is going to produce a “holly cross” today when the 50dma crosses over the 200dma. There have been exactly three of these holly crosses on the VIX in the past 5 years, two were prior and during the large drop in 2007/2008. Of course this is all a part of kabuki theatre, none of it is real:
The dollar is sinking, it is winning the race to the bottom of the skank money producers/manipulators. Very close to an all-time low, from a technical perspective it looks to be headed there:
Yesterday I had a conversation with a friend who was upside down on his house and couldn’t sell it because it wouldn’t appraise for the amount he had sold it for – twice. He rented it out for awhile then sold it via a short sale. The bank refused to play along, so he intentionally got two payments behind (only partial hit to credit that way) to get their attention in an attempt to get the short sale agreement approved. They sent him letters every week threatening to foreclose if he got another payment behind and they called him constantly in an attempt to squeeze a couple more payments out of him.
He had followed my writing about MERS and how unclean the paper trail is, so one day when he was sick of their inaction and games he demanded to see a copy of the original deed… Thud… Just like that the letters stopped, the phone calls stopped, and the short sale was approved a couple weeks later.
Knowledge is the key when dealing with shysters, the big banks are nothing but. The MERS mess and the way that is being dealt with is more sickening than the phony debt limit debate, yet it is garnering far less attention. All fraud all of the time…
Equity futures are flat this morning prior to the open. This despite a dollar drilling a hole deeper than the Horizon oil well, the Yen is rising higher into the danger zone, oil is trying to get above $100 a barrel but looks like that well’s been capped (via manipulation), gold is slightly lower but still well above a stunning $1,600 an ounce, silver keeps rising, and food commodities are looking like squishy canned mixed veggies – very expensive ones.
Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales are released at 10 Eastern this morning and will be reported inside of today’s daily thread. Case-Shiller Home Price Data comes out just prior to the open, it too will be reported inside of the Daily thread.
Sickening is the feeling I had as Obama and Boehner both interrupted the evening news by taking their drivel to the people. Neither one mentioned their real agendas which I won’t even discuss as their games are just revolting – hostage taking for political gain is just one part of this corrupt sickness. None of this should be happening; we needn’t have any national debt whatsoever.
The VIX is feeding off this idiocy and is going to produce a “holly cross” today when the 50dma crosses over the 200dma. There have been exactly three of these holly crosses on the VIX in the past 5 years, two were prior and during the large drop in 2007/2008. Of course this is all a part of kabuki theatre, none of it is real:
The dollar is sinking, it is winning the race to the bottom of the skank money producers/manipulators. Very close to an all-time low, from a technical perspective it looks to be headed there:
Yesterday I had a conversation with a friend who was upside down on his house and couldn’t sell it because it wouldn’t appraise for the amount he had sold it for – twice. He rented it out for awhile then sold it via a short sale. The bank refused to play along, so he intentionally got two payments behind (only partial hit to credit that way) to get their attention in an attempt to get the short sale agreement approved. They sent him letters every week threatening to foreclose if he got another payment behind and they called him constantly in an attempt to squeeze a couple more payments out of him.
He had followed my writing about MERS and how unclean the paper trail is, so one day when he was sick of their inaction and games he demanded to see a copy of the original deed… Thud… Just like that the letters stopped, the phone calls stopped, and the short sale was approved a couple weeks later.
Knowledge is the key when dealing with shysters, the big banks are nothing but. The MERS mess and the way that is being dealt with is more sickening than the phony debt limit debate, yet it is garnering far less attention. All fraud all of the time…
Senin, 25 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/25 - Threats, Hostage Taking, & Sovereign Money Edition
Good Morning,
Equity futures gapped down on the open yesterday and are still down a triple-digit amount as no “deal” has yet to be made on the debt limit. The dollar continues to sink while the Japanese Yen is in dangerous territory, oil is falling, yet gold has shot to another all-time high proving yet again that it’s a monetary root problem, silver is also higher, while most food commodities continue to choke real, living people with fake markets and fake money.
The threat’s been made – “economic Armageddon” will happen unless _______ party agrees to our (central banker box) solution. So, what happens if the threat’s been made but reality turns out different? Do the clowns and barkers wind up in prison? Out of office? Or do we continue to accept their inane manipulation into our economy and lives? Certainly if you were to make threats about their living you would wind up in prison in an instant.
The truth is that the national debt is a total embarrassment… not just because there’s so much of it, but because there should never be ANY of it in the first place! Why would the government of a collective people agree to pay private bankers interest in exchange for “borrowing money” that never existed in the first place? In other words, why would a sovereign government give a few private individuals the right to produce the nation’s money and charge it interest? These are the real questions that must be asked, not arguing about left/right or who’s giving up what! The only people who should be giving up anything is the private banks – and that would be the right to produce money at their will.
A key demarcation point was reached when Obama was elected President and he came out “focused on the future,” stating that “we all need to put our past behind us.” While that optimistic speak has a nice sounding façade, it was code for the rule of law will not be enforced and those who are robbing Americans not only will not go to prison for their crimes, but they will be allowed to continue to commit crimes (because they finance his election and he would not be there without it).
Make no mistake, the debt ceiling debate is meant to distract you… while the impossible math is clearly evident, raising the debt limit certainly is no solution to anything. Even if you fall into the central banker box of lies and deceit, common sense dictates that capping the debt is more beneficial for one’s credit than is unlimited ability to spend – thus the opposite of the threats is true. And as has been completely proven now over and over, we are macro-economically debt saturated and thus adding more debt will only result in further drag on the economy and higher structural unemployment.
No, what needs to happen is a complete revamp of our monetary system and WHO it is that is in control of producing our nation’s money. Below Bill Still advocates just such an on target solution, however, my caution, as it’s always been, is that while we must take back the power of money creation we must do so carefully with controls in place to limit the amount of money that gets produced – that is entirely possible as I spelled out in Freedom’s Vision. Also, the current debt must be cleared for prosperity to take root – again, Freedom’s Vision spells out just one method of how to accomplish that. Here’s Bill Still on point as usual:
This morning the Chicago “Fed’s” National Activity Index plummeted once again and prior readings were revised drastically lower… again. The prior month’s report was -.19, but it was revised downward to -.55, and thus the current report of -.46 could be headlined to read like it is an “improvement,” a favorite trick of the mainstream complicit pumpers. The 3 month moving average tanked to -.60, here’s Econononsense:
Of course any data from the “Fed” is suspect – period.
So, what will it be? Raise the limit, or not raise the limit? Does it matter? Are you tired of being manipulated yet? Are you tired of being threatened yet?
You know, my new mantra is simply to deny these criminals anything – no respect, no participation in their crimes, no money to fuel their Ponzi. Who to vote for in 2012? Who gives a rip as long as the central banks are financing both sides to create their central banker box? So, no vote from me, no money from me, just let me know when the people are ready to take back the power that is rightfully theirs.
You know all the bizarre violence over the weekend has got to leave you wondering… I believe the root of all that too is the impossible math and the pressure it creates on society. It is corrosive, it is the underlying cause of the decay in society’s moral fabric. This is why it’s very important not to feed this paradigm.
Equity futures gapped down on the open yesterday and are still down a triple-digit amount as no “deal” has yet to be made on the debt limit. The dollar continues to sink while the Japanese Yen is in dangerous territory, oil is falling, yet gold has shot to another all-time high proving yet again that it’s a monetary root problem, silver is also higher, while most food commodities continue to choke real, living people with fake markets and fake money.
The threat’s been made – “economic Armageddon” will happen unless _______ party agrees to our (central banker box) solution. So, what happens if the threat’s been made but reality turns out different? Do the clowns and barkers wind up in prison? Out of office? Or do we continue to accept their inane manipulation into our economy and lives? Certainly if you were to make threats about their living you would wind up in prison in an instant.
The truth is that the national debt is a total embarrassment… not just because there’s so much of it, but because there should never be ANY of it in the first place! Why would the government of a collective people agree to pay private bankers interest in exchange for “borrowing money” that never existed in the first place? In other words, why would a sovereign government give a few private individuals the right to produce the nation’s money and charge it interest? These are the real questions that must be asked, not arguing about left/right or who’s giving up what! The only people who should be giving up anything is the private banks – and that would be the right to produce money at their will.
A key demarcation point was reached when Obama was elected President and he came out “focused on the future,” stating that “we all need to put our past behind us.” While that optimistic speak has a nice sounding façade, it was code for the rule of law will not be enforced and those who are robbing Americans not only will not go to prison for their crimes, but they will be allowed to continue to commit crimes (because they finance his election and he would not be there without it).
Make no mistake, the debt ceiling debate is meant to distract you… while the impossible math is clearly evident, raising the debt limit certainly is no solution to anything. Even if you fall into the central banker box of lies and deceit, common sense dictates that capping the debt is more beneficial for one’s credit than is unlimited ability to spend – thus the opposite of the threats is true. And as has been completely proven now over and over, we are macro-economically debt saturated and thus adding more debt will only result in further drag on the economy and higher structural unemployment.
No, what needs to happen is a complete revamp of our monetary system and WHO it is that is in control of producing our nation’s money. Below Bill Still advocates just such an on target solution, however, my caution, as it’s always been, is that while we must take back the power of money creation we must do so carefully with controls in place to limit the amount of money that gets produced – that is entirely possible as I spelled out in Freedom’s Vision. Also, the current debt must be cleared for prosperity to take root – again, Freedom’s Vision spells out just one method of how to accomplish that. Here’s Bill Still on point as usual:
This morning the Chicago “Fed’s” National Activity Index plummeted once again and prior readings were revised drastically lower… again. The prior month’s report was -.19, but it was revised downward to -.55, and thus the current report of -.46 could be headlined to read like it is an “improvement,” a favorite trick of the mainstream complicit pumpers. The 3 month moving average tanked to -.60, here’s Econononsense:
Highlights
Growth in national business activity is below historical trend based on the Chicago Fed's index which comes in at minus 0.46 in June vs a downwardly revised minus 0.55 in May. At minus 0.60, the three-month average is at its lowest level since October 2009. The three-month average in May is revised lower to minus 0.31. Weakness in personal consumption & housing is weighing most heavily on the index followed by employment. Production & income is also a negative with sales, orders & inventories the only plus.
Of course any data from the “Fed” is suspect – period.
So, what will it be? Raise the limit, or not raise the limit? Does it matter? Are you tired of being manipulated yet? Are you tired of being threatened yet?
You know, my new mantra is simply to deny these criminals anything – no respect, no participation in their crimes, no money to fuel their Ponzi. Who to vote for in 2012? Who gives a rip as long as the central banks are financing both sides to create their central banker box? So, no vote from me, no money from me, just let me know when the people are ready to take back the power that is rightfully theirs.
You know all the bizarre violence over the weekend has got to leave you wondering… I believe the root of all that too is the impossible math and the pressure it creates on society. It is corrosive, it is the underlying cause of the decay in society’s moral fabric. This is why it’s very important not to feed this paradigm.
Sabtu, 23 Juli 2011
Jumat, 22 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/22 - Kabuki Theatre Edition
Good Morning,
Equity futures are falling this morning after yesterday’s money pumping glory rally. The dollar is up slightly, bonds are up, oil is down, gold is pushing up strongly above $1,600 again, silver is rising, but food commodities are falling.
There are no meaningful economic releases today.
The market remains unreal and nothing but fluff. Yesterday it was another Greek “bailout,” coupled with more rumor-mongering political kabuki regarding the debt ceiling. The Greek “bailout” is nothing but money from yet another “special fund” used to lengthen the time the Greeks are enslaved, but to artificially do it at a far lower interest rate than any free market would ever allow.
And so I ask, WHERE DOES THE MONEY FOR THAT COME FROM? Did it exist already? If it did exist already then it is taking money from something and someone else… but that’s simply not the case. This is just another cover-up scheme to create the appearance that money printing is not occurring to cover DEFAULTED debt. The Greeks are in default, but then again so are we – this scheme is the exact same scheme the “Fed” is running on Americans. And just look at how you pay for it in the depreciation of your money - $1,600+ gold, and you pay for it every single time you fill up your tank or take a bite to eat. Famine in Africa is nothing compared to the nasty conditions created all over the world by out-of-control narcissistic central bankers.
As far as our debt ceiling kabuki… the rumor of $3 trillion “saved” over a decade means that our deficits will still be growing exponentially. The math is impossible and everyone will find that despite all the talk of “deficit reduction,” that real reduction is going to be absolutely unachievable. Impossible is just that – none of the proposals will so much as dent the impossible math. The only thing they can possibly accomplish is to fool you for another year… maybe… if you don’t have two neurons communicating with one another that is… which collectively we seem not to have.
Whatever, all that is completely on ignore from me because I know how this game eventually ends. I am committed to working outside of the central banker system, that means I refuse to participate in their unfree, manipulated at warp-speed, “markets.” No thanks.
Instead I am putting my money to work building a real business. A business that does not depend upon financial engineering, banks, and one that will create jobs here in America while being on the leading edge responsible with efficient use of resources. There are a lot of people with money out there looking for real places to put their capital to work. Matching that money up directly with real business is the only way around the central banking paradigm, besides owning precious metals. My sense is that there is more and more of this direct financing occurring. If you look, you will find opportunity in this regard – just make sure that you perform your due diligence.
Equity futures are falling this morning after yesterday’s money pumping glory rally. The dollar is up slightly, bonds are up, oil is down, gold is pushing up strongly above $1,600 again, silver is rising, but food commodities are falling.
There are no meaningful economic releases today.
The market remains unreal and nothing but fluff. Yesterday it was another Greek “bailout,” coupled with more rumor-mongering political kabuki regarding the debt ceiling. The Greek “bailout” is nothing but money from yet another “special fund” used to lengthen the time the Greeks are enslaved, but to artificially do it at a far lower interest rate than any free market would ever allow.
And so I ask, WHERE DOES THE MONEY FOR THAT COME FROM? Did it exist already? If it did exist already then it is taking money from something and someone else… but that’s simply not the case. This is just another cover-up scheme to create the appearance that money printing is not occurring to cover DEFAULTED debt. The Greeks are in default, but then again so are we – this scheme is the exact same scheme the “Fed” is running on Americans. And just look at how you pay for it in the depreciation of your money - $1,600+ gold, and you pay for it every single time you fill up your tank or take a bite to eat. Famine in Africa is nothing compared to the nasty conditions created all over the world by out-of-control narcissistic central bankers.
As far as our debt ceiling kabuki… the rumor of $3 trillion “saved” over a decade means that our deficits will still be growing exponentially. The math is impossible and everyone will find that despite all the talk of “deficit reduction,” that real reduction is going to be absolutely unachievable. Impossible is just that – none of the proposals will so much as dent the impossible math. The only thing they can possibly accomplish is to fool you for another year… maybe… if you don’t have two neurons communicating with one another that is… which collectively we seem not to have.
Whatever, all that is completely on ignore from me because I know how this game eventually ends. I am committed to working outside of the central banker system, that means I refuse to participate in their unfree, manipulated at warp-speed, “markets.” No thanks.
Instead I am putting my money to work building a real business. A business that does not depend upon financial engineering, banks, and one that will create jobs here in America while being on the leading edge responsible with efficient use of resources. There are a lot of people with money out there looking for real places to put their capital to work. Matching that money up directly with real business is the only way around the central banking paradigm, besides owning precious metals. My sense is that there is more and more of this direct financing occurring. If you look, you will find opportunity in this regard – just make sure that you perform your due diligence.
Kamis, 21 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/21
Good Morning,
Equity futures are higher again this morning with the dollar sinking, bonds falling, oil rising, gold is higher, silver is flat, and most food commodities are lower.
Of note this morning is that the dollar has broken down from that small daily triangle I’ve been showing:
If it stays below that triangle, then it looks like it is ready to make a trip to the bottom of the larger descending wedge. That would put it near the all-time lows, it is open air beneath that as can be seen on this monthly chart:
We’ll see, if the dollar descends then oil will definitely rise along with everything else and that will eventually choke the economy, and thus it is somewhat self-limiting. Due to the self-limiting feature of the dollar being tied to commodities, then it takes a concerted effort to destroy the dollar, exactly what we’ve been experiencing. While the theatre of the absurd continues in D.C., the impossible math will still exist regardless of any “deal” that’s made (on behalf of the central bankers).
This morning Jobless Claims came in higher than expected again, at 418,000. That is up from last week’s 405k, which, of course, was revised higher. Not even close to job creation, here’s Econodope:
This is like listening to a multi-year broken record. The mainstream simply cannot admit that debt saturation has occurred and that attempting to force more debt into a saturated system results in higher unemployment. It’s mind numbing that we’re still caught in the central banker’s web of deceit.
Also mind numbing is how the situation at Fukushima is being handled. No real attempt at containment still, meanwhile radiation continues to pour into our environment where it winds up circling the globe. Here’s Arnie Gunderson with an update on the condition of the plant and also what is happening with what is now being called “black rain.”
Equity futures are higher again this morning with the dollar sinking, bonds falling, oil rising, gold is higher, silver is flat, and most food commodities are lower.
Of note this morning is that the dollar has broken down from that small daily triangle I’ve been showing:
If it stays below that triangle, then it looks like it is ready to make a trip to the bottom of the larger descending wedge. That would put it near the all-time lows, it is open air beneath that as can be seen on this monthly chart:
We’ll see, if the dollar descends then oil will definitely rise along with everything else and that will eventually choke the economy, and thus it is somewhat self-limiting. Due to the self-limiting feature of the dollar being tied to commodities, then it takes a concerted effort to destroy the dollar, exactly what we’ve been experiencing. While the theatre of the absurd continues in D.C., the impossible math will still exist regardless of any “deal” that’s made (on behalf of the central bankers).
This morning Jobless Claims came in higher than expected again, at 418,000. That is up from last week’s 405k, which, of course, was revised higher. Not even close to job creation, here’s Econodope:
Highlights
Layoffs remain stubbornly high though longer term trends may be improving if only slightly. Initial jobless claims rose 10,000 in the July 16 week to a 418,000 level that's slightly higher than expected (prior week revised 3,000 higher to 408,000). The July 16 week is the survey week for the household employment section of the monthly employment report and a comparison with the prior survey week of June 18 shows an improvement but a small one at 9,000. A comparison of four-week averages during the same two weeks shows a smaller 5,000 improvement, to 421,250 vs 426,250.
Other data include a 50,000 decline in continuing claims for the July 9 week to 3.698 million with the four-week average down 4,000 to 3.721 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is down one tenth to 2.9 percent.
There are no special factors skewing today's report with claims tied to the government shutdown in Minnesota adding up to no more than 1,750. The job market is still very tough though trends in this report hint at slight improvement from June's extremely disappointing employment report.
This is like listening to a multi-year broken record. The mainstream simply cannot admit that debt saturation has occurred and that attempting to force more debt into a saturated system results in higher unemployment. It’s mind numbing that we’re still caught in the central banker’s web of deceit.
Also mind numbing is how the situation at Fukushima is being handled. No real attempt at containment still, meanwhile radiation continues to pour into our environment where it winds up circling the globe. Here’s Arnie Gunderson with an update on the condition of the plant and also what is happening with what is now being called “black rain.”
Ex Japanese Nuclear Regulator Blames Radioactive Animal Feed on "Black Rain"
Stocks are looking and acting like they want to break out higher – from my perspective that is more tragic than if they follow a wave of deflation now. The markets are not free, they are not real, and they have never been more risk filled for the average investor. Again, my take is that we are all better off if you ignore the markets and find something real and productive to directly invest your money in. This is a throwback to the way business used to be financed, and it is the future if we don’t want to be ruled by central bankers who tell us nothing but lies.
Rabu, 20 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/20
Good Morning,
I’m on the road with a business trip until Wednesday evening. I’ll attempt to get a post up if I have time, if not, please use this as your daily market thread…
I’m on the road with a business trip until Wednesday evening. I’ll attempt to get a post up if I have time, if not, please use this as your daily market thread…
Selasa, 19 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/19
Good Morning,
I’m on the road with a business trip until Wednesday evening. I’ll attempt to get a post up if I have time, if not, please use this as your daily market thread…
I’m on the road with a business trip until Wednesday evening. I’ll attempt to get a post up if I have time, if not, please use this as your daily market thread…
Senin, 18 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/18 - Clowns to the Left, Jokers to the Right Edition…
Good Morning,
Equity futures are lower prior to the open with the dollar higher, bonds flat, oil down slightly, gold hurdling $1,600 an ounce to another all-time high, silver gapping higher, while food commodities wither in the scorching heat of impossible math.
Treasury International Capital Data (TIC) was released for May, Econoday reports the Net Long Term Securities Transactions (line 19) to be positive at $23.6 billion. In fact, however, the total Net Inflows for May were $-67.5 Billion (line 30 which nets out the total). Anyway you want to slice it none of it has an auditable trail and is therefore suspect at best – outright fraud is more likely. Here’s Econoday:
Here’s the entire TIC report:
TIC Data for May 2011
The Housing Market Index (can you say “Depression?”) is released at 10 Eastern this morning. Data the rest of the week is fairly light, with Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, Philly “Fed,” and “Leading” Indicators.
The debt saturated condition continues to rattle Europe, of course, where there is huge underlying stress in the credit markets. The gap between this reality and equities has never been wider with the sick mainstream media publishing articles stating that the European debt crisis won’t affect our banks! Sick. In my mind that is a far more damaging and worse crime that tapping someone’s cell phone. But now we have arrests for that activity… surprising, I guess Mr. Murdock must be out of the central banker’s favor, and thus he shifted from the “club” side of the law, to the law that applies to everyone else.
Speaking of central banker mischief, note how all of the big banks report billions upon billions of profits and claim to have improving credit conditions that allow them to release “reserves” that magically turn into Ferraris for them? Well how does that square with MGIC’s report where they report losses amongst higher claims and more people falling behind on their payments? Gee, claims only rose 44% in the last quarter, as values plunged! Just a reminder that MGIC is the largest monoline insurer of mortgages. Again, just exposing more lies and more fraud from the central criminals.
The debt ceiling debate is really exposing the political clowns for what they are – central banking lackeys and manipulators of public opinion. Their scare you tactics have actually made the governors ban together to demand (dammit) that a “deal” be reached on the debt limit ceiling before economic catastrophe strikes! Laugh out loud at those clowns.
They don’t realize that economic catastrophe struck a long time ago and that they are a big part of the problem by not changing the way special interests (especially the central banks) are allowed to create their own money and use it to influence politics. This has led to impossible math that became impossible long ago.
This morning Weiss Ratings (not taken seriously by the mainstream, yet more accurate) downgraded America's debt rating to "C-minus — approximately equivalent to a BBB- rating by S&P, or one notch above speculative grade (junk)."
Guess I’m… Stuck in the Middle with You!
Equity futures are lower prior to the open with the dollar higher, bonds flat, oil down slightly, gold hurdling $1,600 an ounce to another all-time high, silver gapping higher, while food commodities wither in the scorching heat of impossible math.
Treasury International Capital Data (TIC) was released for May, Econoday reports the Net Long Term Securities Transactions (line 19) to be positive at $23.6 billion. In fact, however, the total Net Inflows for May were $-67.5 Billion (line 30 which nets out the total). Anyway you want to slice it none of it has an auditable trail and is therefore suspect at best – outright fraud is more likely. Here’s Econoday:
Highlights
Held down by increasing US investment overseas, net inflow of long-term securities slowed to $23.6 billion in May for the weakest reading of the year. US resident outflow totaled $21.0 billion, up from $14.2 billion in April and compared with $30.6 billion in March. Low US yields are likely pushing investment overseas and limiting investment at home.
Foreign buying of US long-term securities totaled an in-trend $44.6 billion in May and was centered in Treasuries along with a respectable total for equities. Foreigners sold government agency bonds during the month though they were moderate buyers of US corporate bonds. Foreign purchases were roughly split evenly between private investors and official institutions.
A look at foreign holdings of Treasuries shows incremental gains for China, to $1.16 trillion, and Japan, to $912.4 trillion, with a slightly more than incremental gain for UK accounts to $346.5 billion. OPEC, the fourth largest holder of Treasuries, shows a more than $8 billion gain to $229.8 billion. Russia, the ninth largest holder, fell more than $10 billion to $115.2 billion.
Here’s the entire TIC report:
TIC Data for May 2011
The Housing Market Index (can you say “Depression?”) is released at 10 Eastern this morning. Data the rest of the week is fairly light, with Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, Philly “Fed,” and “Leading” Indicators.
The debt saturated condition continues to rattle Europe, of course, where there is huge underlying stress in the credit markets. The gap between this reality and equities has never been wider with the sick mainstream media publishing articles stating that the European debt crisis won’t affect our banks! Sick. In my mind that is a far more damaging and worse crime that tapping someone’s cell phone. But now we have arrests for that activity… surprising, I guess Mr. Murdock must be out of the central banker’s favor, and thus he shifted from the “club” side of the law, to the law that applies to everyone else.
Speaking of central banker mischief, note how all of the big banks report billions upon billions of profits and claim to have improving credit conditions that allow them to release “reserves” that magically turn into Ferraris for them? Well how does that square with MGIC’s report where they report losses amongst higher claims and more people falling behind on their payments? Gee, claims only rose 44% in the last quarter, as values plunged! Just a reminder that MGIC is the largest monoline insurer of mortgages. Again, just exposing more lies and more fraud from the central criminals.
The debt ceiling debate is really exposing the political clowns for what they are – central banking lackeys and manipulators of public opinion. Their scare you tactics have actually made the governors ban together to demand (dammit) that a “deal” be reached on the debt limit ceiling before economic catastrophe strikes! Laugh out loud at those clowns.
They don’t realize that economic catastrophe struck a long time ago and that they are a big part of the problem by not changing the way special interests (especially the central banks) are allowed to create their own money and use it to influence politics. This has led to impossible math that became impossible long ago.
This morning Weiss Ratings (not taken seriously by the mainstream, yet more accurate) downgraded America's debt rating to "C-minus — approximately equivalent to a BBB- rating by S&P, or one notch above speculative grade (junk)."
Guess I’m… Stuck in the Middle with You!
Sabtu, 16 Juli 2011
Jumat, 15 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/15 - Wasted Time Edition…
Good Morning,
Yes, it’s a waste of time to report pre-open as the HFTs will simply use pre-market movement to shake non-HFT donators out of their position and turn profits. What profits? Try $3 trillion+ at both Citi and Bank of America – both outrageous “profits” made by churning in the markets but also by lowering loan reserves – as if they have any actual reserves at all, they don’t if they were to mark their “assets” to any semblance of reality. But these are the companies running America, they are your boss. But let’s pretend and note that the markets are slightly higher this morning despite a higher dollar, bonds are lower, oil is flat, gold is taking a breather just beneath $1,600, silver is higher, and food commodities are mixed. Don’t forget that today is Options Expiration, that means more fun and games.
In the Land of Make Believe, the CPI went negative on a month over month basis at -.2%, but is still (falsely) showing a +3.4% rate year over year. Reality is much, much greater than that. Here are some words from people who make a living playing within the central banker box:
Gee, QE2 hadn’t even ended and this number turned negative. Just give the powers of deflation a little while and I think it will be roaring which will force their hand into QE3 once again so that they can keep their rob you Ponzi games alive.
The Empire State Manufacturing Report was negative for the second month in a row, Econodime is having a tough time spinning that one into gold:
Speaking of Industrial Production, in May it was originally reported at +.1%, but that was revised down to -.1% just to keep the trend of overstatements alive. For June they just reported +.2%, so that probably means next month we’ll find out it is either zero or -.2%. Reality is something else entirely.
“Consumer” Sentiment comes out in a few minutes, we’ll discuss that inside of today’s Market Thread, not than any of the bankers give a rip about what the non-Ferrari peons think. The Sentiment and Confidence reports used to matter, but not in today's world of QE masking.
The evening news is filled with scare tactics on the debt ceiling. Really, I couldn’t care less, but I hate being manipulated and that’s what all of this is about. If it were up to me I’d throw Obama, most of Congress, and all of the central bankers in jail and start over. Short of that I’m losing interest and don’t even view their wild shenanigans as worth my time at this point. I’ll keep track and keep reporting for now, but the pain/ give-a-rip meter is definitely pegged.
Yes, it’s a waste of time to report pre-open as the HFTs will simply use pre-market movement to shake non-HFT donators out of their position and turn profits. What profits? Try $3 trillion+ at both Citi and Bank of America – both outrageous “profits” made by churning in the markets but also by lowering loan reserves – as if they have any actual reserves at all, they don’t if they were to mark their “assets” to any semblance of reality. But these are the companies running America, they are your boss. But let’s pretend and note that the markets are slightly higher this morning despite a higher dollar, bonds are lower, oil is flat, gold is taking a breather just beneath $1,600, silver is higher, and food commodities are mixed. Don’t forget that today is Options Expiration, that means more fun and games.
In the Land of Make Believe, the CPI went negative on a month over month basis at -.2%, but is still (falsely) showing a +3.4% rate year over year. Reality is much, much greater than that. Here are some words from people who make a living playing within the central banker box:
Highlights
Consumer price inflation turned negative for the first time in twelve months on another decline in energy costs. The consumer price index in June dipped 0.2 percent, following a 0.2 percent increase the month before. The June number matched the median estimate for a 0.2 percent decrease. Excluding food and energy, the CPI rose 0.3 percent, equaling the May rate and topping the consensus forecast for a 0.2 percent increase.
Turning to major components, energy dropped 4.4 percent, following a 1.0 percent decline. Gasoline fell 6.8 percent after decreasing 2.0 percent in May. Food price inflation slowed with a 0.2 percent gain after a 0.4 percent surge the month before.
Within the core new vehicles increased 0.6 percent, used cars and trucks jumped 1.6 percent, and apparel increased 1.4 percent in June. And owners' equivalent rent is no longer as soft as in recent months, rising 0.2 percent.
Year-on-year, overall CPI inflation held steady at 3.4 percent (seasonally adjusted) in June. In contrast, the core rate firmed to 1.6 percent from 1.5 percent in May on a year-ago basis. On an unadjusted year-ago basis, the headline number was up 3.6 percent in June while the core was up 1.6 percent.
The headline is good news but the strong core will give Fed officials pause on taking on more quantitative easing. However, the motor vehicle prices gains are likely temporarily hot.
Gee, QE2 hadn’t even ended and this number turned negative. Just give the powers of deflation a little while and I think it will be roaring which will force their hand into QE3 once again so that they can keep their rob you Ponzi games alive.
The Empire State Manufacturing Report was negative for the second month in a row, Econodime is having a tough time spinning that one into gold:
Highlights
The best news that can be squeezed from the Empire state report is that the rate of contraction is easing. The headline index came in at minus 3.76 in July, a sub-zero reading indicating month-to-month contraction in business conditions but above minus 7.79 to indicate a slightly less severe rate of contraction compared to June. Shipments are a clear positive, showing monthly expansion at plus 2.22 vs June's minus 8.02. Employment, at plus 1.11, also expanded though at a slower rate than June's 10.20.
Other readings are more downbeat including a minus 5.45 for new orders, the second negative reading in a row, and a minus 12.22 reading for unfilled orders that suggests manufacturers in the region are aggressively working down their backlog. Inventories also contracted as did the workweek. Price data confirm overall slowing with both input and output pressures easing.
Today's report points to a second month of weakness for the Philly Fed report on Thursday as well as to trouble for the July ISM report. But these are anecdotal reports, based on small samples and using diffusion methodologies. Today's industrial production report, to be released at 9:15 a.m. ET this morning, will offer definitive data on June.
Speaking of Industrial Production, in May it was originally reported at +.1%, but that was revised down to -.1% just to keep the trend of overstatements alive. For June they just reported +.2%, so that probably means next month we’ll find out it is either zero or -.2%. Reality is something else entirely.
“Consumer” Sentiment comes out in a few minutes, we’ll discuss that inside of today’s Market Thread, not than any of the bankers give a rip about what the non-Ferrari peons think. The Sentiment and Confidence reports used to matter, but not in today's world of QE masking.
The evening news is filled with scare tactics on the debt ceiling. Really, I couldn’t care less, but I hate being manipulated and that’s what all of this is about. If it were up to me I’d throw Obama, most of Congress, and all of the central bankers in jail and start over. Short of that I’m losing interest and don’t even view their wild shenanigans as worth my time at this point. I’ll keep track and keep reporting for now, but the pain/ give-a-rip meter is definitely pegged.
Kamis, 14 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/14 – Burn, Baby, Burn Edition…
Good Morning,
Equity futures are higher this morning even after the U.S. was put on credit watch by Moody’s. The dollar is flat, bonds are lower, oil is higher and getting close to $100 again, gold is testing an unbelievable $1,600 an ounce, silver is shining as a hedge to the lunacy, while the price of food commodities gets further out of reach for the world’s poor.
Yesterday criminal Bernanke flapped his lips about more QE and the commodity markets went wild. Then the insiders got wind of the credit watch and sold equities into it. That action shows two things – first is that more QE is going to royally squick the people of the world with higher prices, and secondly the insider action again shows how corrupt these unfree markets really are… again.
To me the thought of another big QE program is far more scary than another round of deflation, but I know it’s coming at some point and it’s going to be very ugly when it does. Just look at oil… when the first round of QE began oil was at $33 a barrel. When the second round of QE began oil was at $70 a barrel. Now we’re at $100 a barrel, which is already economy choking, and if QE3 has an equal effect you’ll be staring at $140 a barrel and $5 a gallon for gas. That’s just one negative aspect of more printing, but again you know it’s coming at some point, just look at all the pressure to “get a deal” and raise the debt ceiling.
Since the money changers aren’t getting their way, they roll out their puppet President to threaten retirees by withholding their retirement money – oh yeah, nobody sees that threat for what it is. When that fails to work, the money changers get their puppet rating agencies to issue downgrade warnings in another attempt to scare the people in allowing them to make all their numbers bigger and bigger. Of course all the media mantra and scare tactics are completely backwards – it is the act of raising the debt ceiling that should scare the hell out of everyone, and it is that act that should instantly produce credit rating downgrades, not the other way around. So, we are recklessly heading into the great monetary inferno, burn, baby, burn. You know what they say about the road to hell, boy was it hot yesterday.
This morning JPMorgan “beat” estimates again with second quarter income soaring to ONLY $5.43 Billion!! In one quarter! How did they do that? By robbing you in the unfree markets (which they have absolutely no business being in at all), by reducing loan loss provisions AGAIN, and by marking their worthless portfolio of stinking insolvent debt to their own fantasy model. You know, it’s funny, but you would think that a “beat” and that kind of money production would send their stock higher, but in fact it is lower. Maybe I’m not the only one who smells the rot. By the way, false earnings like this completely distort the entire corporate earnings picture giving idiot analysts a sense of well-being to justify their shilling at outrageous valuations (when stripped of accounting fraud).
The PPI settled down in June, primarily due to the falling price of oil at that time. Month over month it went negative .4%, but less food and energy it was still positive .3%. Of course a lower reading here is viewed as a green light for more money printing and thus bad is good, burn, baby, burn:
Even with their own trumped up inflation statistics, 7% inflation is raging hot, but of course does not garner the impossible math attention it deserves.
June Retail Sales managed to eek out a .1% positive number. Remember, this statistic way overstates sales as it suffers from survivor bias and is not correctly corrected into a real inflation adjusted number, thus a .1% positive number means that actual sales of real products is down significantly. Don’t expect to hear that from someone whose living depends on fluffing you up:
Year over year increases in Retail Sales do not reflect actual increased sales, instead it is simply a partial inflation indication.
The weekly Jobless Claims came in lower than last week and on expectations of 405,000 which is still way above an overall job losing proposition. Note this is an estimate based upon a short week and that the prior week was revised higher by three times the usual amount. Also, Econohay would like you to believe that the 11,500 layoffs due to Minnesota stopping business is no big deal, but in fact it is a big deal, it is another symptom of a debt saturated society and it has massive ripple effects that are just now starting to be seen - like Miller beer had to stop distributions in the state as they could not renew their business license – I know it’s just beer, but how many people will be laid off because of that? Debt is an ugly thing, perhaps it will take a lack of brain numbing rot to bring the people to their senses? I know, I know, American Idol is still on:
400k is not the key number, 350k and below is where jobs are being created and it’s been years since we’ve had a print that low.
Note that the VIX failed to stay beneath the 50 and 200dma’s:
Burn, baby, burn.
Equity futures are higher this morning even after the U.S. was put on credit watch by Moody’s. The dollar is flat, bonds are lower, oil is higher and getting close to $100 again, gold is testing an unbelievable $1,600 an ounce, silver is shining as a hedge to the lunacy, while the price of food commodities gets further out of reach for the world’s poor.
Yesterday criminal Bernanke flapped his lips about more QE and the commodity markets went wild. Then the insiders got wind of the credit watch and sold equities into it. That action shows two things – first is that more QE is going to royally squick the people of the world with higher prices, and secondly the insider action again shows how corrupt these unfree markets really are… again.
To me the thought of another big QE program is far more scary than another round of deflation, but I know it’s coming at some point and it’s going to be very ugly when it does. Just look at oil… when the first round of QE began oil was at $33 a barrel. When the second round of QE began oil was at $70 a barrel. Now we’re at $100 a barrel, which is already economy choking, and if QE3 has an equal effect you’ll be staring at $140 a barrel and $5 a gallon for gas. That’s just one negative aspect of more printing, but again you know it’s coming at some point, just look at all the pressure to “get a deal” and raise the debt ceiling.
Since the money changers aren’t getting their way, they roll out their puppet President to threaten retirees by withholding their retirement money – oh yeah, nobody sees that threat for what it is. When that fails to work, the money changers get their puppet rating agencies to issue downgrade warnings in another attempt to scare the people in allowing them to make all their numbers bigger and bigger. Of course all the media mantra and scare tactics are completely backwards – it is the act of raising the debt ceiling that should scare the hell out of everyone, and it is that act that should instantly produce credit rating downgrades, not the other way around. So, we are recklessly heading into the great monetary inferno, burn, baby, burn. You know what they say about the road to hell, boy was it hot yesterday.
This morning JPMorgan “beat” estimates again with second quarter income soaring to ONLY $5.43 Billion!! In one quarter! How did they do that? By robbing you in the unfree markets (which they have absolutely no business being in at all), by reducing loan loss provisions AGAIN, and by marking their worthless portfolio of stinking insolvent debt to their own fantasy model. You know, it’s funny, but you would think that a “beat” and that kind of money production would send their stock higher, but in fact it is lower. Maybe I’m not the only one who smells the rot. By the way, false earnings like this completely distort the entire corporate earnings picture giving idiot analysts a sense of well-being to justify their shilling at outrageous valuations (when stripped of accounting fraud).
The PPI settled down in June, primarily due to the falling price of oil at that time. Month over month it went negative .4%, but less food and energy it was still positive .3%. Of course a lower reading here is viewed as a green light for more money printing and thus bad is good, burn, baby, burn:
Highlights
In June, lower energy costs gave the economy a break. Producer price inflation in June turned negative with prices dropping 0.4 percent, following a relatively soft rise of 0.2 percent in May. The latest number came in lower than analysts' forecast for a 0.3 percent decline. By major components, energy fell a sizeable 2.8 percent after rising 1.5 percent in May. Gasoline dropped 4.7 percent after rising 2.7 percent the prior month. Food costs rebounded 0.6, following a 1.4 percent dip the prior month. At the core level, PPI inflation bumped up to 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent in May and topping the median forecast of 0.2 percent. On a not seasonally adjusted basis for June, the year-ago the headline PPI was up 7.0 percent while the core was up 2.4 percent.
Even with their own trumped up inflation statistics, 7% inflation is raging hot, but of course does not garner the impossible math attention it deserves.
June Retail Sales managed to eek out a .1% positive number. Remember, this statistic way overstates sales as it suffers from survivor bias and is not correctly corrected into a real inflation adjusted number, thus a .1% positive number means that actual sales of real products is down significantly. Don’t expect to hear that from someone whose living depends on fluffing you up:
Highlights
Retail sales edged up in June despite a price related drop in gasoline sales. Overall retail sales in June edged up 0.1 percent, following a 0.1 percent dip in May (originally down 0.2 percent). The increase in June was marginally better than the median forecast for no change. A rebound in auto sales helped lift overall sales. Motor vehicle sales made a partial 0.8 percent rebound after dropping 1.8 percent in May. Both months' sales were constrained by shortages of models dependent upon parts from Japan.
Excluding autos, sales were flat, following a 0.2 percent gain in May. Analysts expected a 0.1 percent uptick. Here, components were mixed but softened largely by weak gasoline sales. Gasoline dropped 1.3 percent, following a 0.5 percent increase. Sales excluding autos and gasoline in June posted a modest 0.2 percent rise, matching the gain in May.
Outside of autos and gasoline, sales were mixed. The biggest gains were seen in building materials & garden equipment (up 1.3 percent); clothing & accessories (up 0.7 percent); and general merchandise stores (up 0.4 percent). Also gaining were food & beverage, nonstore retailers, and miscellaneous store retailers.
The largest decliners were furniture & home furnishing (down 0.8 percent); sporting goods, hobby & book stores (down 0.7 percent); and food services & drinking places (down 0.4 percent). Also falling were electronics & appliances and health & personal care.
Retail sales on a year-ago basis in June posted at 8.1 percent, compared to 7.8 percent in May. Excluding motor vehicles, sales were up 7.9 percent on a year-on-year basis, compared to 8.0 percent in May.
Essentially, overall retail sales in June were soft, mixed and about as expected. However, today's drop in initial jobless claims may be encouraging for future sales along with supply constraints in the auto sector being resolved.
Year over year increases in Retail Sales do not reflect actual increased sales, instead it is simply a partial inflation indication.
The weekly Jobless Claims came in lower than last week and on expectations of 405,000 which is still way above an overall job losing proposition. Note this is an estimate based upon a short week and that the prior week was revised higher by three times the usual amount. Also, Econohay would like you to believe that the 11,500 layoffs due to Minnesota stopping business is no big deal, but in fact it is a big deal, it is another symptom of a debt saturated society and it has massive ripple effects that are just now starting to be seen - like Miller beer had to stop distributions in the state as they could not renew their business license – I know it’s just beer, but how many people will be laid off because of that? Debt is an ugly thing, perhaps it will take a lack of brain numbing rot to bring the people to their senses? I know, I know, American Idol is still on:
Highlights
The headline decline in jobless claims is good news though there's special factors at play that cloud the July 9 week. Initial claims fell 22,000 to an as-expected level of 405,000 but the period is a shortened one that includes the July 4 holiday (prior week revised upward to 427,000). Another factor is uncertainty over the week-to-week timing of shutdowns, including auto retooling, in the manufacturing sector, a seasonal factor that lowers claims after adjustment and always makes for uncertain readings at this time of year. One factor that is clearly inflating claims is the government shutdown in Minnesota which added 11,500, before adjustment, to the week's total. A look at the four-week average, especially important for uncertain periods, is favorable, down 3,750 to 423,250.
Continuing claims for the July 2 week rose 15,000 to 3.727 million with the four-week average up slightly to 3.719 million. Continuing claims have been steady at recovery lows for the last six weeks or so. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged for the fourth straight week at 3.0 percent.
Initial claims did come down in the latest week but whether this is the beginning of a trend is too soon to say. Until claims fall below 400,000, optimism on the jobs market will continue to be limited.
400k is not the key number, 350k and below is where jobs are being created and it’s been years since we’ve had a print that low.
Note that the VIX failed to stay beneath the 50 and 200dma’s:
Burn, baby, burn.
Rabu, 13 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/13 – World Wide Spread of the Debt Plague Edition…
Good Morning,
Equity prices are higher this morning, the dollar is lower, bonds are lower, oil is higher ($97), gold is setting a new all-time high ($1,580), silver is soaring, and food commodities are literally choking the life out of people living on the margins.
Yesterday the “Fed” hinted at QE3 in their meeting minutes and that has reignited the fluff trade. Meanwhile CNN is talking that we need to bring in “big thinkers” to fix our economy… you know, people like Bill Clinton, Alan Greenspan, and other banking big wigs. You know, because these “big thinkers” can solve these impossible math problems and they certainly had no part in creating them! Maybe the big banks can all donate a few million to put them up in a lavish hotel while they ponder it for awhile.
The fluff on trade was supposedly set off by China reporting year over year “growth” at 9.5% which is above the 9.3% “growth” estimate. First of all, I’m just going to say that whenever you see a percentage growth number that large you should instantly turn on your skeptic mode. Growth numbers that large are absolutely not sustainable in the real world, and certainly not for the duration that the Chinese have been making this claim. So, that brings up the non-real world that unfortunately is the world’s fluff monetary system. You can create money and debt to make numbers larger, but that is apparent growth, it is money growth, not REAL growth.
This is laid bare by today’s Import and Export Prices report where we find the closest American report on real inflation. This is where we see that Export Prices have zoomed 9.9% in the past year, and that Import Prices have rocketed 13.6% in the past year! “Holly inflation, Batman!”
“Boy Wonder, if only you knew what the real Evil Doers where up to!”
“Holly cannoli, it’s a world-wide black plague of historic debt saturated proportions! What’s an average guy investor like me supposed to do?”
“There, there, Boy Wonder, just hang on to your wallet and find REAL things to invest in… the fluff always collapses in the end, and the Evil Doers always wind up behind bars… or maybe not, but it’s up to us to try!”
And so it goes, another day another trumped up statistic of monumental debt proportions. But hey, on a month over month basis the price of oil fell and created a momentary lower inflation blip, thus a green light for QE3, right? Whatever, here’s Econonoclue:
Let’s go back to that 13.6% import inflation and compare that to China’s supposed 9.5% “growth.” Is it really positive growth at all with those numbers? Hardly, it’s nothing but monetary fluff – all of it.
The hyper hypocritical Mortgage Banker’s Association today reported that their whack-job Purchase Index sank another 2.6% in the past week, while their Refinancing Index fell a supposed 6.2%. That number is tame by their standards, but again, I find it impossible to believe economic statistics that swing that much in a single week. Nothing they report is believable, it’s pure bull. Here’s Econoday helping to spread the fertilizer:
What, no bottom call to go along with that? Please sir, may I have another?
So, we have gold climbing to a new all-time record – that tells you all you need to know really. And people thought $500 an ounce was unbelievable, we’re now more than three times that level. Europe is a debt saturated wreck, the Yen continues to climb in a surreal corium like slow-motion melt up of bizzaro proportions, it’s like watching their version of monetary China Syndrome. Yet stocks are high, high, high, while big corporations create artificial “profits” (formerly known as fraud), small businesses suffer, and individuals either can’t find a job or are working for a pittance with frozen and downsized wages against raging inflation in everything that one NEEDS. Yep, those “big thinkers” are needed badly.
Other than precious metals I’ve seen little that inspires confidence as a place to put my money to work. I refuse to participate in these markets as I know the rot that lies underneath. They aren’t even real, they are simply a manipulated HFT game for the money changers. But what I’ve come to realize is that despite all of this messed up reality there are still opportunities for those who think outside of the central banker box. And it’s obvious that resolution to the debt saturation plague is going to be a decades long journey. So, I’m choosing to live my life in a positive manner and am developing a business that will work in almost any monetary environment, not dependant upon the credit issued by a group of screwed up narcissistic bankers. There are opportunities out there, just make damn certain you’re putting your money to work in something real… something that does not support their debt is money scheme.
Equity prices are higher this morning, the dollar is lower, bonds are lower, oil is higher ($97), gold is setting a new all-time high ($1,580), silver is soaring, and food commodities are literally choking the life out of people living on the margins.
Yesterday the “Fed” hinted at QE3 in their meeting minutes and that has reignited the fluff trade. Meanwhile CNN is talking that we need to bring in “big thinkers” to fix our economy… you know, people like Bill Clinton, Alan Greenspan, and other banking big wigs. You know, because these “big thinkers” can solve these impossible math problems and they certainly had no part in creating them! Maybe the big banks can all donate a few million to put them up in a lavish hotel while they ponder it for awhile.
The fluff on trade was supposedly set off by China reporting year over year “growth” at 9.5% which is above the 9.3% “growth” estimate. First of all, I’m just going to say that whenever you see a percentage growth number that large you should instantly turn on your skeptic mode. Growth numbers that large are absolutely not sustainable in the real world, and certainly not for the duration that the Chinese have been making this claim. So, that brings up the non-real world that unfortunately is the world’s fluff monetary system. You can create money and debt to make numbers larger, but that is apparent growth, it is money growth, not REAL growth.
This is laid bare by today’s Import and Export Prices report where we find the closest American report on real inflation. This is where we see that Export Prices have zoomed 9.9% in the past year, and that Import Prices have rocketed 13.6% in the past year! “Holly inflation, Batman!”
“Boy Wonder, if only you knew what the real Evil Doers where up to!”
“Holly cannoli, it’s a world-wide black plague of historic debt saturated proportions! What’s an average guy investor like me supposed to do?”
“There, there, Boy Wonder, just hang on to your wallet and find REAL things to invest in… the fluff always collapses in the end, and the Evil Doers always wind up behind bars… or maybe not, but it’s up to us to try!”
And so it goes, another day another trumped up statistic of monumental debt proportions. But hey, on a month over month basis the price of oil fell and created a momentary lower inflation blip, thus a green light for QE3, right? Whatever, here’s Econonoclue:
Highlights
A monthly downswing in oil prices led a sweep of declines in June import prices which fell 0.5 percent overall and, importantly, also fell excluding petroleum products, down 0.2 percent. Declines are broad through nearly all input components with output components, including capital goods and consumer goods, showing moderating pressure from already incremental rates. Yet the monthly decline didn't hold down the year-on-year increase which at 13.6 percent is the largest since August 2008, which was the month of course just before the financial meltdown.
The export side shows a mild 0.1 percent increase though here too the year-on-year rate is extremely elevated, at 9.9 percent with the non-agricultural rate at a record 7.8 percent. The monthly rate, as it is on the import side, was held down by the drop in oil prices which offset a sharp 0.7 percent rise in agricultural products.
Today's report is a reminder that lower oil prices, and with them easing pressure on the consumer tied to gas prices, is a big plus for coming economic data on June. Because of oil, both producer prices on Thursday and consumer prices on Friday are expected to show headline declines.
Let’s go back to that 13.6% import inflation and compare that to China’s supposed 9.5% “growth.” Is it really positive growth at all with those numbers? Hardly, it’s nothing but monetary fluff – all of it.
The hyper hypocritical Mortgage Banker’s Association today reported that their whack-job Purchase Index sank another 2.6% in the past week, while their Refinancing Index fell a supposed 6.2%. That number is tame by their standards, but again, I find it impossible to believe economic statistics that swing that much in a single week. Nothing they report is believable, it’s pure bull. Here’s Econoday helping to spread the fertilizer:
Highlights
July is off to a weak start for the housing sector, at least based on data from the Mortgage Bankers Association that shows a 2.6 percent decline in purchase applications for the July 8 week. Refinancing applications also declined, down 6.2 percent. The declines came despite a sizable drop in rates during the week with 30-year mortgages down 14 basis points to an average 4.55 percent. Next data on the housing sector will come Monday with the housing market index.
What, no bottom call to go along with that? Please sir, may I have another?
So, we have gold climbing to a new all-time record – that tells you all you need to know really. And people thought $500 an ounce was unbelievable, we’re now more than three times that level. Europe is a debt saturated wreck, the Yen continues to climb in a surreal corium like slow-motion melt up of bizzaro proportions, it’s like watching their version of monetary China Syndrome. Yet stocks are high, high, high, while big corporations create artificial “profits” (formerly known as fraud), small businesses suffer, and individuals either can’t find a job or are working for a pittance with frozen and downsized wages against raging inflation in everything that one NEEDS. Yep, those “big thinkers” are needed badly.
Other than precious metals I’ve seen little that inspires confidence as a place to put my money to work. I refuse to participate in these markets as I know the rot that lies underneath. They aren’t even real, they are simply a manipulated HFT game for the money changers. But what I’ve come to realize is that despite all of this messed up reality there are still opportunities for those who think outside of the central banker box. And it’s obvious that resolution to the debt saturation plague is going to be a decades long journey. So, I’m choosing to live my life in a positive manner and am developing a business that will work in almost any monetary environment, not dependant upon the credit issued by a group of screwed up narcissistic bankers. There are opportunities out there, just make damn certain you’re putting your money to work in something real… something that does not support their debt is money scheme.
Selasa, 12 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/12 – All in Edition…
Good Morning,
Equity futures are down just slightly after being down deeper overnight. The dollar is higher after breaking out of the triangle I’ve been showing, the yen is becoming an issue again, bonds are higher, oil is lower, gold & silver are down a little, and food commodities are also lower.
The Small Business Index fell once again, this time just slipping a tenth to 90.8 from the prior 90.9. The people who publish this report are sounding militantly upset over the lack of economic progress, I think rightly so. Of course they will talk politics within the box created and manipulated for them, unfortunately they don’t call the impossible math what it is and they fail to see that their only salvation is to think and operate outside of the central banker box.
This mantra is going to be repeated by me – small businesses have taken the shaft while large corporations have received nothing but trillions in aid and in the form of favorable rule making. I am personally shifting my investment strategy to avoid all things large corporate and am starting a new business that receives funding not from large banks, but from investors like us – while returning a good, but conservative and fully collateralized return. In this way, we cut out the bankers, create jobs right here in the U.S. and are secure knowing that we aren’t participating/ contributing to their wild casino that formerly were free markets. I’ll be talking more about this later. In the mean time here’s Econoday staying well within the box as usual:
The group who writes the Small Business Optimism Index report are pretty pointed, one of the few groups who understands that the country never really “recovered.” Here’s their entire report, as usual it’s a pretty good read:
Small Business Optimism Index July 2011
The International Trade numbers came in with a much larger deficit than expected at -$50.2 billion, much greater than April’s -$43.7 billion. A lot of this deficit is a result of importing more expensive energy, but it should be clear to everyone that while we’re printing money here, much of it is leaving the country. In this way we are exporting inflation, in fact causing the price of energy to rise, and this sets in motion a negative feedback loop that makes it impossible to escape the impossible math. This is just another reason why in the end the money printing “stimulus” crowd will be proven wrong, just as they always have when viewed through the lens of history. So why do they do it? Why does a thief rob a bank? Here’s Econobox supporting the thieves’ perspective:
There’s always a silver lining in Wonderland.
Well outside of Wonderland, our president and Congress are playing games with the debt ceiling. Yesterday Obama went all in when stating that any deal had to be large and that he would not sign off on something that simply kicks the can. Yeah, right. The math is so impossible that they aren’t even in the ballpark of slowing down the can. Everything feeds the central banks, and until we get out of their box the impossible math is going to rule supreme. Of course within the box a large dose of austerity will instantly cause the economy to suffer. Doing nothing will also cause the economy to suffer. Continuing on the path we’re currently on – printing/ stimulus – will make the economy suffer even more in the end. Impossible math just is, you cannot trick it nor fool it.
Equity futures are down just slightly after being down deeper overnight. The dollar is higher after breaking out of the triangle I’ve been showing, the yen is becoming an issue again, bonds are higher, oil is lower, gold & silver are down a little, and food commodities are also lower.
The Small Business Index fell once again, this time just slipping a tenth to 90.8 from the prior 90.9. The people who publish this report are sounding militantly upset over the lack of economic progress, I think rightly so. Of course they will talk politics within the box created and manipulated for them, unfortunately they don’t call the impossible math what it is and they fail to see that their only salvation is to think and operate outside of the central banker box.
This mantra is going to be repeated by me – small businesses have taken the shaft while large corporations have received nothing but trillions in aid and in the form of favorable rule making. I am personally shifting my investment strategy to avoid all things large corporate and am starting a new business that receives funding not from large banks, but from investors like us – while returning a good, but conservative and fully collateralized return. In this way, we cut out the bankers, create jobs right here in the U.S. and are secure knowing that we aren’t participating/ contributing to their wild casino that formerly were free markets. I’ll be talking more about this later. In the mean time here’s Econoday staying well within the box as usual:
Highlights
The political drumbeat continues from the National Federation of Independent Business whose text for June declares: "Small-business owners are registering a vote of 'no confidence' in the federal government." It uses the word "grave" to describe small-business concern over the federal budget and asks: "Who can blame the prevalence of pessimism when administration officials are telling Congress that small businesses need to pay more in taxes to support government spending programs?"
Now their numbers. Their index slipped one tenth in June to 90.8 in what the text describes as recession territory. The weakest readings concern the outlook for the economy and the outlook for sales. Interestingly, strength appears in employment plans. Also there's evidence of pricing power with a net 10 percent of the sample raising their selling prices over the last three months. It also notes that access to credit is only a limited problem.
The group who writes the Small Business Optimism Index report are pretty pointed, one of the few groups who understands that the country never really “recovered.” Here’s their entire report, as usual it’s a pretty good read:
Small Business Optimism Index July 2011
The International Trade numbers came in with a much larger deficit than expected at -$50.2 billion, much greater than April’s -$43.7 billion. A lot of this deficit is a result of importing more expensive energy, but it should be clear to everyone that while we’re printing money here, much of it is leaving the country. In this way we are exporting inflation, in fact causing the price of energy to rise, and this sets in motion a negative feedback loop that makes it impossible to escape the impossible math. This is just another reason why in the end the money printing “stimulus” crowd will be proven wrong, just as they always have when viewed through the lens of history. So why do they do it? Why does a thief rob a bank? Here’s Econobox supporting the thieves’ perspective:
Highlights
The trade deficit unexpectedly worsened in May and sharply. Higher oil prices that month played a key role in the increased red ink. The May trade gap ballooned to $50.2 billion from a revised $43.6 billion in April (originally $46.7 billion). The May deficit was much larger than analysts' estimate for $42.7 billion. Exports slipped 0.5 percent after improving 1.4 percent in April. Imports jumped 2.6 percent after edging down 0.3 percent the month before.
The widening in the trade deficit was led by the petroleum gap which expanded to $30.4 billion from $26.1 billion in April. For May, the price of imported oil jumped $5.52 per barrel to $108.70-the highest level since August 2008. Also, the physical quantity of oil imports jumped 9.1 percent to 275.3 million barrels for the month after plunging 14.5 percent in April. The prior month's imports were atypically soft. The nonpetroleum goods shortfall worsened to $33.3 billion from $31.1 billion the prior month. The services surplus advanced to $14.7 billion from $14.5 billion in April.
Looking at end use categories for goods, exports fell 1.1 percent while imports jumped 2.9 percent in the latest month. The dip in exports was led by a $1.8 billion decrease in industrial supplies, with a decline also seen in consumer goods (down $0.4 billion). Foods, feeds & beverages were down fractionally. On the plus side were capital goods excluding autos (up $0.4 billion) and automotive (up $0.6 billion).
The surge in imports by end use categories was led by a $4.3 billion jump in industrial supplies (mostly crude oil) with gains also seen in capital goods excluding autos (up $1.2 billion), and automotive (up $0.6 billion). The foods, feeds & beverages component was up marginally.
On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the May figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong $2.1 ($2.6 for April), and Australia $1.2 ($1.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China $25.0 ($21.6), OPEC $11.3 ($9.6), European Union $8.8 ($7.5), Mexico $6.3 ($5.5), Germany $3.8 ($3.8), Venezuela $3.1 ($2.8), Canada $2.7 ($2.4), and Japan $2.6 ($3.6).
The trade deficit is draining funds from the U.S. economy faster than earlier believed. This will lead most economists to lower their forecast for second quarter GDP. However, oil prices have come down significantly since May and we likely will see improvement in at least the petroleum gap next month. Looking for the silver lining, the boost is capital equipment imports may be a subtraction in GDP accounting, but it suggests some optimism on the part of businesses. The dip in consumer goods imports is disappointing but not so much after a $2.1 billion jump in April. The decline in goods exports also is disappointing but follows a jump in April and combined with a still low (though not as low as some weeks ago) dollar, exports likely are still on an uptrend.
There’s always a silver lining in Wonderland.
Well outside of Wonderland, our president and Congress are playing games with the debt ceiling. Yesterday Obama went all in when stating that any deal had to be large and that he would not sign off on something that simply kicks the can. Yeah, right. The math is so impossible that they aren’t even in the ballpark of slowing down the can. Everything feeds the central banks, and until we get out of their box the impossible math is going to rule supreme. Of course within the box a large dose of austerity will instantly cause the economy to suffer. Doing nothing will also cause the economy to suffer. Continuing on the path we’re currently on – printing/ stimulus – will make the economy suffer even more in the end. Impossible math just is, you cannot trick it nor fool it.
Senin, 11 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/11 – Swan Diving Edition…
Good Morning,
7/11/11 for you numerology watchers… not sure the meaning, but for some reason I’m thinking how good a fully sugared Slurpee would be right about now.
Equity futures are sharply lower again this morning, already making lows beneath Friday’s low. The dollar is higher, bonds are higher, oil is down sharply, gold is within $20 of another all-time high, silver is higher, and most food commodities are lower.
Note the latest trend that has most commodities falling on the down strokes except for the precious metals. Then on the upstrokes precious metals do well too. That’s because debt saturation is a monetary phenomena – the central scammers, wait, I mean central bankers, have developed a money is debt scheme that lines their coffers and burdens the rest of society.
That burden is now striking hard in Italy which is jumping into the debt saturation/ impossible math spotlight. No surprise there, it’s just the latest excuse for problems.
And it’s the same old stuff here at home using the debt ceiling as a political tool at the center of a wrestling match. In this match they are arguing over two aspects of a TRIANGLE, and no one will talk about the third. The triangle has three sides, not two, with higher taxes on one side, lower spending on another, but on the third is the one no one will touch and that is clearing out the debt! How do you clear out the debt? You let the banks DEFAULT. Had we done that already, we’d be well underway to a real recovery by now, but the issue framers won’t even talk about doing it properly. Freedom’s Vision would be one way to do it properly.
Meanwhile we get manipulated with false mantra, false debate, never ending fraud, false statistics, and outright lies.
The dollar broke the daily chart’s descending wedge in the upward direction and came right to the top of the much smaller triangle that I’ve been pointing out lately. A break above that triangle line – any higher than here – will probably set in motion a dollar rally which will take down equities. Again, worth watching here to see how it behaves (how we are manipulated):
No economic data today, the rest of this week is all about trumped up price data; the PPI, CPI, and trade data. Industrial Production, Empire Manufacturing, and “Consumer” Sentiment are thrown in as a kicker.
The horror that is Fukushima is not contained – not even slightly. And the special interest in charge, TEPCO, has no interest but to delay, delay, delay in hopes that somehow it will either just go away, or they can escape before someone holds them accountable. So, they make up stuff, the latest being that they have a plan, and it will take them a DECADE to invent some magical device that will allow them to pick up melted corium and do something with it! What a joke of sad and tragic proportions – real people, and our real planet are in serious trouble in the mean time. If you wish to stay informed, the following is a long Arnie Gunderson video that is worth the time:
7/11/11 for you numerology watchers… not sure the meaning, but for some reason I’m thinking how good a fully sugared Slurpee would be right about now.
Equity futures are sharply lower again this morning, already making lows beneath Friday’s low. The dollar is higher, bonds are higher, oil is down sharply, gold is within $20 of another all-time high, silver is higher, and most food commodities are lower.
Note the latest trend that has most commodities falling on the down strokes except for the precious metals. Then on the upstrokes precious metals do well too. That’s because debt saturation is a monetary phenomena – the central scammers, wait, I mean central bankers, have developed a money is debt scheme that lines their coffers and burdens the rest of society.
That burden is now striking hard in Italy which is jumping into the debt saturation/ impossible math spotlight. No surprise there, it’s just the latest excuse for problems.
And it’s the same old stuff here at home using the debt ceiling as a political tool at the center of a wrestling match. In this match they are arguing over two aspects of a TRIANGLE, and no one will talk about the third. The triangle has three sides, not two, with higher taxes on one side, lower spending on another, but on the third is the one no one will touch and that is clearing out the debt! How do you clear out the debt? You let the banks DEFAULT. Had we done that already, we’d be well underway to a real recovery by now, but the issue framers won’t even talk about doing it properly. Freedom’s Vision would be one way to do it properly.
Meanwhile we get manipulated with false mantra, false debate, never ending fraud, false statistics, and outright lies.
The dollar broke the daily chart’s descending wedge in the upward direction and came right to the top of the much smaller triangle that I’ve been pointing out lately. A break above that triangle line – any higher than here – will probably set in motion a dollar rally which will take down equities. Again, worth watching here to see how it behaves (how we are manipulated):
No economic data today, the rest of this week is all about trumped up price data; the PPI, CPI, and trade data. Industrial Production, Empire Manufacturing, and “Consumer” Sentiment are thrown in as a kicker.
The horror that is Fukushima is not contained – not even slightly. And the special interest in charge, TEPCO, has no interest but to delay, delay, delay in hopes that somehow it will either just go away, or they can escape before someone holds them accountable. So, they make up stuff, the latest being that they have a plan, and it will take them a DECADE to invent some magical device that will allow them to pick up melted corium and do something with it! What a joke of sad and tragic proportions – real people, and our real planet are in serious trouble in the mean time. If you wish to stay informed, the following is a long Arnie Gunderson video that is worth the time:
Why Fukushima Can Happen Here: What the NRC and Nuclear Industry Dont Want You to Know
Sabtu, 09 Juli 2011
Jumat, 08 Juli 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/8 - What Employment Edition...
Good Morning,
Equity futures plummeted on the Employment Situation release with headline numbers far worse than expectations, coming in at only 18,000 supposed nonfarm payroll and the headline rate spun for mass media consumption rising to 9.2%. Once again this report is way off the expectations set by the notoriously bad ADP Report that came out just yesterday. The reality, of course, is far worse and we’ll dive into that in just a minute. The immediate reaction sent the dollar lower, bonds way higher, oil lower, gold & silver higher still, and most food commodities are slightly higher.
Take a look at the 5 minute short term chart of the dollar, and you’ll see that once again it fell just off of overhead resistance. I would not be surprised to see it reverse and break that triangle higher today, we’ll see:
The expectation for the Employment Report was that there would be 105,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added, and that the rate would fall to 9.0%, not rise. Of course the truth is far worse as the economy continues to shed jobs like crazy and reports like this continue to expose the lies from the administration and from “economists” for what they are – complete nonsense. Before I jump into the spin, here’s Econospin doing their part to convince you to please, oh please, keep the Ponzi scheme going – least they wind up being included in the BLS’s numbers:
Pretty hard for them to spin that one. Note the revisions lower to the previous months, and also that earnings are falling as well. Price inflation in the things you need while earnings are falling. Terrific economy, and I’ve been telling you why that’s happening, and I’m going to tell it like it is once again, but first here’s the entire report…
Employment June 2011
Let’s start uncovering the lies starting with the advertised rate of “only” 9.2%. First of all, even by their own convoluted methods, the teen unemployment rate is 24.5%. When we turn to the “alternate” tables (where we get much closer to reality) we find that U-6 unemployment jumped in June a full percentage point(!) from 15.4% to 16.4% not seasonally adjusted, but still jumping from 15.8% to 16.2% even with seasonally adjustments:
Now let’s talk about the phony “Birth/ Death Model” adjustments. This number manipulation devise added a whopping 131,000 supposed jobs in June, surprisingly the exact same number this model added in June of last year. While that’s a pile of wishful manipulation, it breaks the trend where they grow the number by telling an even bigger lie than they told last year:
While this number can’t be just subtracted from the headline number it is clear that without this phony model that the economy is still shedding thousands upon thousands of jobs. A lot of those jobs are governmental jobs, heck, just yesterday the state of Minnesota shut down completely idling thousands of state workers who not only are losing pay, but also currently have no benefits either. This as Minnesota has an impossible $5 billion hole in their budget, this is just slightly smaller than Washington State, here in my home state. And this highlights the reality that is DEBT SATURATION. Once the economy is saturated with debt, then adding more debt only works to burden the economy with higher interest payments and thus IT CANNOT SUPPORT AS MANY JOBS.
This means that all the supposed experts are WRONG. They are wrong and cannot wrap their minds around debt saturation because their livings are corrupted by special interest money. But since my living is not corrupted in such a manner, I can show you the following chart comparing Base Money to the Mean Duration of Unemployment and you can draw your own conclusion – I think it is self-evident:
Just yesterday the “Fed” released their M2 money supply figures that zoomed up a whopping $76.1 billion in just the past week! This is up sharply and is a huge one week figure. Since all money in this country is created as an obligation (generally in the phony bond market), it all carries interest with it, and thus places an even greater anchor around the neck of employment.
Below you can see in the M1 Multiplier what effect adding more debt has upon the way money goes through the economy... or in this case how it fails to ripple through the economy:
Again, prior to the debt saturation point, adding debt works to stimulate the economy – after debt saturation adding debt does the exact opposite. You can see that on the following chart of the Employment Population Ratio which rose in waves leading up to the year 1999, but then has declined ever since. Hey, where is the supposed recovery?
Of course I’m not the only one pointing out the lies, John Williams at Shadow Stats also tries to paint a picture of reality by tracking employment the way it was tracked prior to the current manipulations, according to him real unemployment is pushing 23%:
As sad as these statistics are, they pale in comparison to what’s happening in and around Fukushima, Japan. The lies being told there were whoppers of historic proportions, but they are now being exposed… finally. Things like ordering irradiated TEPCO workers to stand in front of television cameras and pretend to be just ordinary citizens, ordered to lie about how nice life is and has been in the Fukushima area while failing to identify themselves as employees who were told directly to lie to the Japanese people and to the world. That’s just the tip of the iceberg, there is far more occurring than I can possibly cover here. I suggest that you stay informed on this subject, we generally discuss it every day inside of our Daily Thread.
Equity futures plummeted on the Employment Situation release with headline numbers far worse than expectations, coming in at only 18,000 supposed nonfarm payroll and the headline rate spun for mass media consumption rising to 9.2%. Once again this report is way off the expectations set by the notoriously bad ADP Report that came out just yesterday. The reality, of course, is far worse and we’ll dive into that in just a minute. The immediate reaction sent the dollar lower, bonds way higher, oil lower, gold & silver higher still, and most food commodities are slightly higher.
Take a look at the 5 minute short term chart of the dollar, and you’ll see that once again it fell just off of overhead resistance. I would not be surprised to see it reverse and break that triangle higher today, we’ll see:
The expectation for the Employment Report was that there would be 105,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added, and that the rate would fall to 9.0%, not rise. Of course the truth is far worse as the economy continues to shed jobs like crazy and reports like this continue to expose the lies from the administration and from “economists” for what they are – complete nonsense. Before I jump into the spin, here’s Econospin doing their part to convince you to please, oh please, keep the Ponzi scheme going – least they wind up being included in the BLS’s numbers:
Today's employment report is abysmal. We have had two months in a row of essentially no growth. Nonfarm payroll employment in June slowed to a crawl with an 18,000 gain, following a revised 25,000 rise in May, and revised 217,000 in April. The market median forecast was for a 105,000 boost. Also, the April and May revisions were down net 44,000. Once again, the government sector held down payroll numbers as private nonfarm payrolls outpaced the total with an increase of 57,000 in June, following a 73,000 advance in May. Analysts had projected a 125,000 gain in June.
Most major industries were little changed. Goods-producing jobs edged up 4,000, following a 3,000 rise in May. Manufacturing jobs rebounded 6,000 after a 2,000 dip in May. However, construction declined 9,000 after decreasing 4,000. Mining advanced 8,000, following 9,000 gain the prior month.
Growth in private service-providing jobs slowed to a rise of 53,000 after a 70,000 increase the prior month. Leading the increase in June was leisure & hospitality, up 34,000 with professional & technical services, up 24,000. Health care continued to trend upward with a 14,000 boost. On the downside, standouts were educational services, down 17,400; financial activities, down 15,000; and temp help, down 12,000.
The government sector shed another 39,000, following a 48,000 drop in May. This latest decrease was led by local government but declines were also seen at state and federal levels.
Average hourly earnings also slowed June, coming in at no change, following a 0.3 percent rise the prior month. The consensus forecast was for a 0.2 percent increase. The average workweek for all workers in June slipped to 34.3 hours from 34.4 the month before. The June figure came in lower than the market projection for 34.4 hours.
On a year-ago basis, overall payroll jobs in June improved to a still soft 0.8 percent from 0.6 percent the previous month.
From the household survey, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.2 percent from 9.1 percent in May. The consensus expected 9.0 percent.
The June jobs report reinvigorates the argument that the economy is in a soft patch. While a number of indicators have picked up strength, employment is key for the consumer sector to add to economic growth. On the news, equity futures dipped significantly, bond prices firmed, and crude oil declined.
Pretty hard for them to spin that one. Note the revisions lower to the previous months, and also that earnings are falling as well. Price inflation in the things you need while earnings are falling. Terrific economy, and I’ve been telling you why that’s happening, and I’m going to tell it like it is once again, but first here’s the entire report…
Employment June 2011
Let’s start uncovering the lies starting with the advertised rate of “only” 9.2%. First of all, even by their own convoluted methods, the teen unemployment rate is 24.5%. When we turn to the “alternate” tables (where we get much closer to reality) we find that U-6 unemployment jumped in June a full percentage point(!) from 15.4% to 16.4% not seasonally adjusted, but still jumping from 15.8% to 16.2% even with seasonally adjustments:
Now let’s talk about the phony “Birth/ Death Model” adjustments. This number manipulation devise added a whopping 131,000 supposed jobs in June, surprisingly the exact same number this model added in June of last year. While that’s a pile of wishful manipulation, it breaks the trend where they grow the number by telling an even bigger lie than they told last year:
While this number can’t be just subtracted from the headline number it is clear that without this phony model that the economy is still shedding thousands upon thousands of jobs. A lot of those jobs are governmental jobs, heck, just yesterday the state of Minnesota shut down completely idling thousands of state workers who not only are losing pay, but also currently have no benefits either. This as Minnesota has an impossible $5 billion hole in their budget, this is just slightly smaller than Washington State, here in my home state. And this highlights the reality that is DEBT SATURATION. Once the economy is saturated with debt, then adding more debt only works to burden the economy with higher interest payments and thus IT CANNOT SUPPORT AS MANY JOBS.
This means that all the supposed experts are WRONG. They are wrong and cannot wrap their minds around debt saturation because their livings are corrupted by special interest money. But since my living is not corrupted in such a manner, I can show you the following chart comparing Base Money to the Mean Duration of Unemployment and you can draw your own conclusion – I think it is self-evident:
Just yesterday the “Fed” released their M2 money supply figures that zoomed up a whopping $76.1 billion in just the past week! This is up sharply and is a huge one week figure. Since all money in this country is created as an obligation (generally in the phony bond market), it all carries interest with it, and thus places an even greater anchor around the neck of employment.
Below you can see in the M1 Multiplier what effect adding more debt has upon the way money goes through the economy... or in this case how it fails to ripple through the economy:
Again, prior to the debt saturation point, adding debt works to stimulate the economy – after debt saturation adding debt does the exact opposite. You can see that on the following chart of the Employment Population Ratio which rose in waves leading up to the year 1999, but then has declined ever since. Hey, where is the supposed recovery?
Of course I’m not the only one pointing out the lies, John Williams at Shadow Stats also tries to paint a picture of reality by tracking employment the way it was tracked prior to the current manipulations, according to him real unemployment is pushing 23%:
As sad as these statistics are, they pale in comparison to what’s happening in and around Fukushima, Japan. The lies being told there were whoppers of historic proportions, but they are now being exposed… finally. Things like ordering irradiated TEPCO workers to stand in front of television cameras and pretend to be just ordinary citizens, ordered to lie about how nice life is and has been in the Fukushima area while failing to identify themselves as employees who were told directly to lie to the Japanese people and to the world. That’s just the tip of the iceberg, there is far more occurring than I can possibly cover here. I suggest that you stay informed on this subject, we generally discuss it every day inside of our Daily Thread.
Langganan:
Postingan (Atom)