Sabtu, 30 April 2011
Jumat, 29 April 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 4/29 - Smokin' Edition...
Good Morning,
Equities are climbing again this morning, the last trading day of the month. The dollar continues its slide into nothingness (even relative to other debt saturated currencies), bonds continue higher not in support of equities, oil is higher, gold is in new record territory, silver is still working on breaching the $50 mark despite another attempt to cut it down via margin increases, and food commodities are bouncing slightly after declining yesterday.
It’s typical that a bullish bias exists on the last and first trading days of the month. There was a small movement in the McClellan Oscillator yesterday, so expect a large price move today. Which direction? Well, let me consult my daily pump you up with fluff POMO schedule…
Yep, another $5 to $10 Billion today and every day. Is it ever going to end? I say that if it does we will see an instant return to another wave of deflation. And if they keep it going commodity prices will continue to the moon. Will they keep it going? They have to, the “Fed” doesn’t work for you, they work for the private central banks.
Personal Income and Outlays in March are showing the money printing in action and if this report is even close to accurate then we may be seeing the beginnings of inflation in incomes. If that continues, it will fuel a spiral in inflation expectations that will require more and more money pumping from the “Fed.” Again inflation is hot in this report and I’m certain that aspect of it is understated – here’s Econopray:
So then it must be okay to send oil prices to the moon? Heaven help you if you live on a fixed income.
Wait… are wages really increasing or aren’t they? In a separate report, the Employment Cost Index does not show the gains:
Gee, could that be why confidence is being lost in the dollar? Or could that be why China and Russia are on a gold buying binge? Or why central bankers of the world are exchanging their debt backed money from nothing for gold?
Uh, huh. The handwriting has been on the wall for quite some time. But remember, those who produce the money are the ones WHO are really in control. In this nation that would currently be the private banks. They know that the math of debt doesn’t work, and I still think that switching to a gold backed money works for them as long as they are still the ones who control and produce the money.
While the U.S. is supposedly the world’s largest holder of gold, that gold has not been truly assayed for decades, and in that time the central bankers have been acting as if they own it (you really own it). They have acted freely to swap it all over the globe and even though that gold truly belongs to the people, they won’t even allow an audit of their activities. So who knows how much gold there is in reality?
The lesson here is two-fold. First and foremost, what’s most important is WHO controls the production of money. Secondly never trust private individuals with your physical gold – always take and maintain delivery of the real thing – paper gold is an outright swindle.
Speaking of swindle, evidently the EU is tired of being swindled:
Oh yeah… Collusion, “Lack of Transparency,” Manipulation, Abusive, and most importantly “Behaved Badly.” Uh huh, and just look at the names associated.
Of course we’ve been preaching about this for years. But nothing will be done that has any meaning because they are the ones WHO have wrongly been allowed to control the production of money, and then they sent the bill to you and me. Ridiculous – these banks and their schemes need to be cut down, a truly healthy economy will prove to be elusive until that occurs.
The Chicago PMI was just released for April. It fell from 70.6 to 67.6 which is also below consensus. “Consumer” Sentiment was also just released for April, and came in very close to March’s level at a still depressed 69.8 on their Index.
'Fukushima - gross miscarriage of radiation science'
Someone's smokin' alright - But I think Bernanke plans to keep on tokin'...
Equities are climbing again this morning, the last trading day of the month. The dollar continues its slide into nothingness (even relative to other debt saturated currencies), bonds continue higher not in support of equities, oil is higher, gold is in new record territory, silver is still working on breaching the $50 mark despite another attempt to cut it down via margin increases, and food commodities are bouncing slightly after declining yesterday.
It’s typical that a bullish bias exists on the last and first trading days of the month. There was a small movement in the McClellan Oscillator yesterday, so expect a large price move today. Which direction? Well, let me consult my daily pump you up with fluff POMO schedule…
Yep, another $5 to $10 Billion today and every day. Is it ever going to end? I say that if it does we will see an instant return to another wave of deflation. And if they keep it going commodity prices will continue to the moon. Will they keep it going? They have to, the “Fed” doesn’t work for you, they work for the private central banks.
Personal Income and Outlays in March are showing the money printing in action and if this report is even close to accurate then we may be seeing the beginnings of inflation in incomes. If that continues, it will fuel a spiral in inflation expectations that will require more and more money pumping from the “Fed.” Again inflation is hot in this report and I’m certain that aspect of it is understated – here’s Econopray:
Highlights
The consumer sector got some lift from income growth in March. Personal income in March grew 0.5 percent, following a 0.4 percent gain in February. The latest was a little higher than the median projection for 0.4 percent. Wages & salaries rose a moderate 0.3 percent, softening from 0.4 percent in February.
Consumer spending slowed somewhat in the latest month but was coming off a robust February. Personal consumption expenditures printed at a 0.6 percent rise in March after jumping 0.9 percent the prior month. Analysts had forecast a 0.5 percent gain. The slowing was largely due to a leveling off in durables after the large advance in this component in February. Durables were a little better than many expected as earlier released unit new motor vehicle sales dipped in March. Of course, higher gasoline prices helped boost the nondurables component. Nonetheless, real PCEs managed to gain 0.2 percent, following a 0.5 percent surge in February.
For PCEs in March, strength was led by nondurables (includes gasoline), up 0.9 percent, after a 1.7 percent surge in February. Durables eased to up 0.1 percent, following a 2.1 percent jump the prior month. Services spending advanced 0.5 percent after a 0.4 percent rise the month before.
On the inflation front, the PCE price index continued to be hot, jumping 0.4 percent and matching the February boost. However, the core rate decelerated a bit to a sluggish 0.1 percent rise in March, following a 0.2 percent gain in February. On a year-ago basis, headline PCE inflation worsened to 1.8 percent from 1.6 percent in February. Core PCE price inflation was steady at 0.9 percent on a year-ago basis. The latest core numbers will let the Fed keep arguing that underlying inflation is still soft.
Year on year, personal income growth for March came in 5.3 percent, compared to 5.2 percent in February. PCEs growth posted at a year-ago 4.6 percent, up from 4.5 percent the prior month.
The consumer sector is holding up a little better than expected despite high gasoline prices. The question is whether the price effects are "transitory" as hoped by the Fed. The income gains are at least helping to offset the impact of higher gasoline prices on consumers' budgets.
So then it must be okay to send oil prices to the moon? Heaven help you if you live on a fixed income.
Wait… are wages really increasing or aren’t they? In a separate report, the Employment Cost Index does not show the gains:
HighlightsI took the liberty of drawing a big fat trend arrow for your wages (err, I mean employment costs). CPI, of course, is trumped and reality is much higher than advertised. I’m giving this report on wages the benefit of a doubt, but who really knows as the data is so widely warped that trust in the money printing central’s data makes one look like an idiot.
A rise in benefit costs fed an above-trend rise in the employment cost index which however shows no acceleration in wages. The ECI rose a quarterly 0.6 percent in the first quarter vs a run of 0.4 percent gains in prior quarters. Year-on-year, the ECI is up 2.0 percent for no change vs the fourth quarter. Wages rose 0.4 percent, the same pace as the fourth quarter, and are up only 1.6 percent year on year. Benefits jumped 1.1 percent for a 3.0 percent year-on-year increase with health benefits for employers up 3.4 percent. For comparison, the year-on-year rate for the CPI was 2.7 percent in March.
Gee, could that be why confidence is being lost in the dollar? Or could that be why China and Russia are on a gold buying binge? Or why central bankers of the world are exchanging their debt backed money from nothing for gold?
Gold Luring Central-Bank Buyers May Extend Record Rally in PriceApril 29 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks that were net sellers of gold a decade ago are buying the precious metal to reduce their reliance on the dollar as a reserve currency, signaling demand that may extend a record rally in prices.
As developing countries accelerate purchases, gold may reach $2,000 an ounce this year, compared with a record of $1,538.80 yesterday in New York, said Robert McEwen, the chief executive officer of producer U.S. Gold Corp. Euro Pacific Capital’s Michael Pento, who correctly predicted gold’s highs for the past two years, forecast a 2011 high of $1,600.
Prices reached a record 14 times this month on demand from investors seeking an alternative to the dollar after the currency slumped to the lowest since 2009, U.S. debt widened, and the Federal Reserve signaled April 27 that borrowing costs will remain near zero percent for an extended period. The economy in China, the biggest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, grew 9.7 percent in the first quarter.
“China is out to have more gold than America, and Russia is aspiring to the same,” McEwen said yesterday in an interview in New York. “When you have debt, you don’t have a lot of flexibility. China wants to show its currency has more backing than the U.S.”
In 2010, central banks became net buyers for the first time in two decades, adding 87 metric tons in official-sector purchases by countries including Bolivia, Sri Lanka and Mauritius, according to World Gold Council data. China, with more than $3 trillion in foreign-currency reserves, plans to set up new funds to invest in precious metals, Century Weekly reported this week. Russia purchased 8 tons of gold in the first quarter.
China’s Gold Reserves
China, which has just 1.6 percent of its reserves in gold, may invest more than $1 trillion in bullion, Pento said. “China wants to be an international player, and they need to own more gold than they currently have.”
The U.S. Treasury Department projects the government could reach its debt ceiling of $14.3 trillion as soon as mid-May and run out of options for avoiding default by early July. The Fed has kept its benchmark rate between zero percent and 0.25 percent since December 2008 to help stimulate the economy, driving the dollar down 11 percent against a basket of six major currencies during the past year.
“Until monetary policy changes, you’re going to continue to see gold go up,” said Michael Cuggino, who helps manage $12 billion at Permanent Portfolio Funds in San Francisco.
“Ultimately the best thing we can do to create strong fundamentals for the dollar in the medium term is first, keep inflation low, which maintains the buying power of the dollar, and second, create a stronger economy,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on April 27.
Uh, huh. The handwriting has been on the wall for quite some time. But remember, those who produce the money are the ones WHO are really in control. In this nation that would currently be the private banks. They know that the math of debt doesn’t work, and I still think that switching to a gold backed money works for them as long as they are still the ones who control and produce the money.
While the U.S. is supposedly the world’s largest holder of gold, that gold has not been truly assayed for decades, and in that time the central bankers have been acting as if they own it (you really own it). They have acted freely to swap it all over the globe and even though that gold truly belongs to the people, they won’t even allow an audit of their activities. So who knows how much gold there is in reality?
The lesson here is two-fold. First and foremost, what’s most important is WHO controls the production of money. Secondly never trust private individuals with your physical gold – always take and maintain delivery of the real thing – paper gold is an outright swindle.
Speaking of swindle, evidently the EU is tired of being swindled:
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Among 16 Banks Probed by EU Over CDSApril 29 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and 14 other investment banks face a European Union antitrust probe into credit-default swaps for companies and sovereign debt.
The European Commission is investigating whether 16 bank dealers, including Citigroup Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG, colluded by giving market information to Markit, a financial information provider. Regulators will also examine whether nine of the firms struck unfair deals with ICE Clear Europe, a clearinghouse for derivatives, shutting out competitors.
“Lack of transparency in markets can lead to abusive behavior and facilitate violations of competition rules,” Joaquin Almunia, the EU’s competition commissioner, said in an e-mailed statement. “I hope our investigation will contribute to a better functioning of financial markets.”
Global regulators have sought to toughen regulation of credit-default swaps, saying the trades helped fuel the financial crisis. The EU’s probe into the CDS market adds to separate investigations in the U.K. and U.S into whether banks colluded to manipulate the London interbank offered rate.
Possible Collusion
Bank of America Corp., Barclays Plc, BNP Paribas SA, Commerzbank AG, Credit Suisse Group AG, HSBC Holdings Plc, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, UBS AG, Wells Fargo & Co., Credit Agricole SA and Societe Generale SA will also be investigated for possible collusion in giving “most of the pricing, indices and other essential daily data only to Markit.”
The commission said this “may have the effect of foreclosing the access to the valuable raw data by other information service providers.” It said some of the clauses in Markit’s licence and distribution agreements “could be abusive and impede the development of competition in the market for the provision of CDS information.”
The EU will also separately investigate credit default swap clearing agreements struck by ICE Clear Europe with Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and UBS.
‘Behaved Badly’
“What we are looking at is whether the main players in the market have behaved badly, have entered into anti-competitive agreements or abused a possible dominant position,” Amelia Torres, a commission spokeswoman, told reporters in Brussels today.
Oh yeah… Collusion, “Lack of Transparency,” Manipulation, Abusive, and most importantly “Behaved Badly.” Uh huh, and just look at the names associated.
Of course we’ve been preaching about this for years. But nothing will be done that has any meaning because they are the ones WHO have wrongly been allowed to control the production of money, and then they sent the bill to you and me. Ridiculous – these banks and their schemes need to be cut down, a truly healthy economy will prove to be elusive until that occurs.
The Chicago PMI was just released for April. It fell from 70.6 to 67.6 which is also below consensus. “Consumer” Sentiment was also just released for April, and came in very close to March’s level at a still depressed 69.8 on their Index.
'Fukushima - gross miscarriage of radiation science'
Someone's smokin' alright - But I think Bernanke plans to keep on tokin'...
Kamis, 28 April 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 4/28 – Con men, Sideshows, and Carnival Barkers Edition…
Good Morning,
Ever notice that the word “CONfidence” begins with the root con? I’ll have more on that in a minute…
Meanwhile, stocks are down, the dollar is down and has been more or less crashing nonstop (but is now bouncing a little due to bad economic data), bonds are shooting higher on the bad data, oil set a new high and pulled back slightly, gold is at another new all-time high, silver is climbing again back to just under $50 an ounce despite margin intervention just the other day, and most food commodities are just slightly lower.
Weekly Jobless Claims shot up from 403,000 to 429,000. This is the third week in a row now back above 400k, and this rise was against expectations that it would fall to 390k. Here’s Econohope finding it hard to continue the improvement claim:
Any number above 350k represents job contraction, jobs have been contracting now for years, not just months.
GDP for the first quarter supposedly rose by an annualized rate of 1.8% against expectations of 2.0% or more. This is down sharply from Q4’s 3.1%. Here’s Econospin, then I’ll de-spin it for you:
The GDP report is nothing but fluff – and is a big part of the CON. It’s so far removed from reality that I’m personally shocked that anyone takes this seriously. The big picture is that DEBT should not count as productivity, nor should any financial engineering – remove that and our true productivity would likely be half of what is reported. But let’s ignore that and play along with the central banker game…
Below is the table from the BEA’s GDP Report with the current “deflators” highlighted:
The “Deflator” is used to supposedly correct for inflation to make the GDP number “Real.” This deflator is supposed to represent annualized inflation. So, the BEA adds up all the “productivity” and then subtracts the deflator to find “real growth.” Note that last year there was a string of 2.0% deflators, then in Q4 it fell to .3%, and is now a supposed 1.9%.
Okay, but does that really represent annualized inflation? Not even close. Of course the PPI and CPI numbers are also complete fantasy, but as I look around I see a set of numbers that seems closer to the truth – namely Import and Export Prices. March is the end of Quarter one, and in the month of March Import prices were reported up by 2.7% just for that month alone! Annualize that number (without compounding) and it’s a staggering 32.4%! But if you just add up the prior year’s Import price inflation, it adds up to 9.7%!!! And just to prove that this is no fluke, export prices rose 9.5% in the past year even with our government’s own figures.
Import and export prices more accurately measure the true fall in the value of the dollar. Now, trade inside of the United States may not see all of this price inflation immediately, that takes time. Still, real inflation, in my opinion, is much greater than the deflator values suggest. In essence what I’m saying is that the supposedly positive GDP reflects money creation, not productivity as it is anything but “real.”
Remember, there are three types of “money;” Sovereign, credit, and “other” (derivatives, margin, etc.), the total of which is completely impossible to track and very much out of control.
Let’s take a quick look at a long term dollar chart that Jesse made, this will give you the long term perspective of just how far the dollar has fallen in value versus the “basket” currencies it is measured against:
The dollar is now down in the .72 region, not far above the all-time lows.
Keep in mind that the dollar index is NOT real either – all the currencies in that basket are depreciating. So, to see real, you need to compare the dollar to something outside of that basket, and that would be the real price of tangible things – just look at the price of gold or even a candy bar to get an idea of real dollar devaluing.
So, if stocks rise while the dollar is falling in value, is the rise “real.” No, because that share of stock, if sold, will actually buy you less than it used to.
And now we have an interesting development with the Russell 2000 small cap Index rising to new all-time highs yesterday:
Of course the other indices have a way to go, but the Transports are pretty close, while the NDX and XLF are very far away from their respective all-time highs. Still, should the major indices join the RUT, then the big picture wave count changes. And this is exactly why McHugh has changed his big picture outlook to a belief that the Grand Supercycle wave III did not in fact top in the year 2000 as almost everyone believed. If his read is correct, that means that the timeframe from the year 2000 until March 2009 was wave 4 within III and that we are currently in a wave 5 movement to complete Grand Supercycle III. If that read is correct, then it means that once wave 5 of III tops, that we will experience something on a larger scale than the past decade as wave IV progresses.
I personally do not know what is true in regards to the waves, but what I see fundamentally is that money printing allowed the private banks to capture the markets and to capture our political system. I think that waves will happen until complete confidence in the current money system is gone, and that confidence is eroding further every day.
Bernanke’s CON of a press CONferenence didn’t seem to promote CONfidence in the dollar. Instead the dollar tanked some more, gold, silver, oil, and even stocks rose as there is obviously no end in sight to zero percent interest rates or the artificial money printing and capture of the planet.
For confidence to flourish, people must believe that the rule of law is being upheld. I maintain that there is the natural rule of law, and then there is the man-made version which can be manipulated and changed. I maintain that the bankers have captured politics with their money printing, and that they have had the man-made laws changed to suit them. The gap between the man-made laws and what is real and natural is getting larger and larger. As that gap grows, it will reach a point at which the people will just find it unacceptable to live with the glaring gap.
The most important natural rule of law is that the agreed to money system not disadvantage the majority. This is the basis of usury and why it is so important – in this regard we are miles and miles away from the natural and proper order of things (rule of law). But a symptom of the money capture is political capture… and this is why it’s important to have leaders that we have confidence in.
And I must say that I did not have any confidence in George Bush, but I now have even less confidence in Obama. Both, of course, are obvious puppets of the central banks – as have national level politicians been since the CON of the “Federal Reserve Act.” But never in my life have I seen so many con men in so high of places.
First of all, I’ll point out that Donald Trump is nothing but a narcissistic con man – what he does he does for his own gain, not for the gain of humanity. Again, simply look at his stance on the banks and on Wall Street – he has repeatedly stated that he would leave them alone, and if anything would further deregulate them. That alone is all you need to know – he is making overtures for his own personal gain and thus what he says lacks the underlying truth.
Now, let’s address the “birther” issue… I started out skeptical. In fact, I even was guilty of ignoring this issue and falling into the media boxing it in as “nutty.” Like most people, I failed to appreciate fully the implications that it represents – so let’s take a fresh big picture look. This issue is important for several reasons, the largest of which is confidence.
A nation’s leader should have 100% of their loyalty resting in the country which they lead. If they do not, then they may fail to make decision to the benefit of those who he represents. With Obama, I think any rational, thinking, American has to wonder if that is the case. The issues are much more complex than simply being born in the United States… It is possible to be born in the U.S., but to not have 100% of your loyalties here – that is one major issue that is largely ignored. But to me, the way this whole issue has been handled destroys my personal confidence in our President.
If it were me, I would have simply provide the long form, notarized copy of my certificate that’s sitting in the drawer in my desk a long time ago. By the way, my certificate is worn, folded, and is obviously not fresh off the computer printer. Still, a fresh copy can be requested from the hospital, but if it comes from the hospital, I can guarantee you that it doesn’t come in a layered .pdf form…
Something is not kosher. For it to be in .pdf form at all, it would have had to have been scanned as a whole, not layered. And that to me casts Obama in the role of a CON MAN. And in turn that further erodes my CONFIDENCE in him and in his administration – and that is why this is such an important issue that is being made more important by the day. Obama’s “Sideshow, and Carnival Barker” comment yesterday was obviously aimed at Trump. Yet, if Obama was not himself a CON MAN, then he would not be forced to step inside of the circus tent – and that is clearly where he resides.
No, this issue is not dead, it is more important than ever as this document release, if proven to be trumped (and I think the .pdf layers do that), then it could be the downfall of a President. And I must say, that he deserves the downfall for many things, he is not an adult and has failed to reel in and contain the out of control central bankers. The results of which are a destroyed middle-class, unnecessary wars (and thousands of deaths), totally captured markets, and the loss of confidence in our monetary and political systems. Obama’s lack of honest dealing with the “birther” issue absolutely is important – it strikes at the very character of our markets, of our political system, and the way in which we represent ourselves to the rest of the world. We are being led by a CON MAN, not that changing him out will change that – we must change out WHO controls the production of money to have significance.
Meanwhile, the special interest captured government of Japan is failing to reel in TEPCO who is absolutely making the Fukushima matter worse. More radiation, and now tinkering with the reactors and fuel rod pools is getting very dangerous with the threat of further explosions possible. Particles heavier than plutonium are now being found in the United States, and the total radiation being expelled is rising to new heights. There are too many details to cover here, so please join us in the daily thread if you wish to understand the real issues involved.
Ever notice that the word “CONfidence” begins with the root con? I’ll have more on that in a minute…
Meanwhile, stocks are down, the dollar is down and has been more or less crashing nonstop (but is now bouncing a little due to bad economic data), bonds are shooting higher on the bad data, oil set a new high and pulled back slightly, gold is at another new all-time high, silver is climbing again back to just under $50 an ounce despite margin intervention just the other day, and most food commodities are just slightly lower.
Weekly Jobless Claims shot up from 403,000 to 429,000. This is the third week in a row now back above 400k, and this rise was against expectations that it would fall to 390k. Here’s Econohope finding it hard to continue the improvement claim:
Highlights
Initial jobless claims are definitely on the rise and it may not be auto related. Initial claims jumped 25,000 in the April 23 week to 429,000 which is nearly 40,000 above expectations (prior week revised 1,000 higher to 404,000). The Labor Department said layoffs in the auto sector were isolated and not a major factor. The four-week average rose a steep 9,250 to 408,500 and is nearly 15,000 above the month-ago level. Initial claims were on a convincing downward trend, but no longer with this month's data pointing to trouble for the April employment report.
Any number above 350k represents job contraction, jobs have been contracting now for years, not just months.
GDP for the first quarter supposedly rose by an annualized rate of 1.8% against expectations of 2.0% or more. This is down sharply from Q4’s 3.1%. Here’s Econospin, then I’ll de-spin it for you:
Highlights
The economy slowed during the first quarter of 2011. However, the detail shows moderate forward momentum. First quarter GDP growth eased to a 1.8 percent annualized pace, following a 3.1 percent boost in the fourth quarter. First quarter growth came in lower than the median projection for 2.0 percent.
The softer growth in the first quarter was largely due to a sharp upturn in imports, a deceleration in personal consumption, a larger decrease in federal government spending, and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports that were partly offset by a sharp upturn in private inventory investment.
Nonetheless, relative strength was seen in personal spending, investment in equipment & software, and inventory investment. Exports also continued to rise although not as rapidly as earlier. PCEs rose an annualized 2.7 percent, following 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter. Equipment & software improved to 11.6 percent from 7.7 percent the prior quarter. Inventories rose a moderate but stronger $43.8 billion, compared to $16.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Exports gained 4.9 percent in the first quarter, following 8.6 percent in the previous quarter.
Weakness included a drop in government purchases (down 5.2 percent), nonresidential structures (down 21.7 percent, residential structures (down 4.1 percent), and imports (up 4.4 percent).
Final sales of domestic product posted at a sluggish 0.8 percent in the first quarter, compared to 6.7 percent the prior quarter. Final sales to domestic purchasers (takes out net exports) slowed to a 0.9 percent increase from a 3.2 percent rise in the fourth quarter. Deceleration in both was primarily due to a sharper drop in government purchases and a fall in structures investment-especially nonresidential but also residential.
Economy-wide inflation picked up with the GDP price index jumping _ percent from a modest 0.4 percent rise in the fourth quarter. Analysts had forecast 2.2 percent.
Year-on-year, real GDP in the first quarter is up 2.3 percent, compared to 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter.
Economy-wide inflation picked up with the GDP price index jumping 1.9 percent from a modest 0.4 percent rise in the fourth quarter. Analysts had forecast 2.2 percent.
Overall, the headline number was disappointing as were the final sales figures. But key components-consumer spending, equipment investment, and inventory investment-are maintaining forward momentum.
The GDP report is nothing but fluff – and is a big part of the CON. It’s so far removed from reality that I’m personally shocked that anyone takes this seriously. The big picture is that DEBT should not count as productivity, nor should any financial engineering – remove that and our true productivity would likely be half of what is reported. But let’s ignore that and play along with the central banker game…
Below is the table from the BEA’s GDP Report with the current “deflators” highlighted:
The “Deflator” is used to supposedly correct for inflation to make the GDP number “Real.” This deflator is supposed to represent annualized inflation. So, the BEA adds up all the “productivity” and then subtracts the deflator to find “real growth.” Note that last year there was a string of 2.0% deflators, then in Q4 it fell to .3%, and is now a supposed 1.9%.
Okay, but does that really represent annualized inflation? Not even close. Of course the PPI and CPI numbers are also complete fantasy, but as I look around I see a set of numbers that seems closer to the truth – namely Import and Export Prices. March is the end of Quarter one, and in the month of March Import prices were reported up by 2.7% just for that month alone! Annualize that number (without compounding) and it’s a staggering 32.4%! But if you just add up the prior year’s Import price inflation, it adds up to 9.7%!!! And just to prove that this is no fluke, export prices rose 9.5% in the past year even with our government’s own figures.
Import and export prices more accurately measure the true fall in the value of the dollar. Now, trade inside of the United States may not see all of this price inflation immediately, that takes time. Still, real inflation, in my opinion, is much greater than the deflator values suggest. In essence what I’m saying is that the supposedly positive GDP reflects money creation, not productivity as it is anything but “real.”
Remember, there are three types of “money;” Sovereign, credit, and “other” (derivatives, margin, etc.), the total of which is completely impossible to track and very much out of control.
Let’s take a quick look at a long term dollar chart that Jesse made, this will give you the long term perspective of just how far the dollar has fallen in value versus the “basket” currencies it is measured against:
The dollar is now down in the .72 region, not far above the all-time lows.
Keep in mind that the dollar index is NOT real either – all the currencies in that basket are depreciating. So, to see real, you need to compare the dollar to something outside of that basket, and that would be the real price of tangible things – just look at the price of gold or even a candy bar to get an idea of real dollar devaluing.
So, if stocks rise while the dollar is falling in value, is the rise “real.” No, because that share of stock, if sold, will actually buy you less than it used to.
And now we have an interesting development with the Russell 2000 small cap Index rising to new all-time highs yesterday:
Of course the other indices have a way to go, but the Transports are pretty close, while the NDX and XLF are very far away from their respective all-time highs. Still, should the major indices join the RUT, then the big picture wave count changes. And this is exactly why McHugh has changed his big picture outlook to a belief that the Grand Supercycle wave III did not in fact top in the year 2000 as almost everyone believed. If his read is correct, that means that the timeframe from the year 2000 until March 2009 was wave 4 within III and that we are currently in a wave 5 movement to complete Grand Supercycle III. If that read is correct, then it means that once wave 5 of III tops, that we will experience something on a larger scale than the past decade as wave IV progresses.
I personally do not know what is true in regards to the waves, but what I see fundamentally is that money printing allowed the private banks to capture the markets and to capture our political system. I think that waves will happen until complete confidence in the current money system is gone, and that confidence is eroding further every day.
Bernanke’s CON of a press CONferenence didn’t seem to promote CONfidence in the dollar. Instead the dollar tanked some more, gold, silver, oil, and even stocks rose as there is obviously no end in sight to zero percent interest rates or the artificial money printing and capture of the planet.
For confidence to flourish, people must believe that the rule of law is being upheld. I maintain that there is the natural rule of law, and then there is the man-made version which can be manipulated and changed. I maintain that the bankers have captured politics with their money printing, and that they have had the man-made laws changed to suit them. The gap between the man-made laws and what is real and natural is getting larger and larger. As that gap grows, it will reach a point at which the people will just find it unacceptable to live with the glaring gap.
The most important natural rule of law is that the agreed to money system not disadvantage the majority. This is the basis of usury and why it is so important – in this regard we are miles and miles away from the natural and proper order of things (rule of law). But a symptom of the money capture is political capture… and this is why it’s important to have leaders that we have confidence in.
And I must say that I did not have any confidence in George Bush, but I now have even less confidence in Obama. Both, of course, are obvious puppets of the central banks – as have national level politicians been since the CON of the “Federal Reserve Act.” But never in my life have I seen so many con men in so high of places.
First of all, I’ll point out that Donald Trump is nothing but a narcissistic con man – what he does he does for his own gain, not for the gain of humanity. Again, simply look at his stance on the banks and on Wall Street – he has repeatedly stated that he would leave them alone, and if anything would further deregulate them. That alone is all you need to know – he is making overtures for his own personal gain and thus what he says lacks the underlying truth.
Now, let’s address the “birther” issue… I started out skeptical. In fact, I even was guilty of ignoring this issue and falling into the media boxing it in as “nutty.” Like most people, I failed to appreciate fully the implications that it represents – so let’s take a fresh big picture look. This issue is important for several reasons, the largest of which is confidence.
A nation’s leader should have 100% of their loyalty resting in the country which they lead. If they do not, then they may fail to make decision to the benefit of those who he represents. With Obama, I think any rational, thinking, American has to wonder if that is the case. The issues are much more complex than simply being born in the United States… It is possible to be born in the U.S., but to not have 100% of your loyalties here – that is one major issue that is largely ignored. But to me, the way this whole issue has been handled destroys my personal confidence in our President.
If it were me, I would have simply provide the long form, notarized copy of my certificate that’s sitting in the drawer in my desk a long time ago. By the way, my certificate is worn, folded, and is obviously not fresh off the computer printer. Still, a fresh copy can be requested from the hospital, but if it comes from the hospital, I can guarantee you that it doesn’t come in a layered .pdf form…
Something is not kosher. For it to be in .pdf form at all, it would have had to have been scanned as a whole, not layered. And that to me casts Obama in the role of a CON MAN. And in turn that further erodes my CONFIDENCE in him and in his administration – and that is why this is such an important issue that is being made more important by the day. Obama’s “Sideshow, and Carnival Barker” comment yesterday was obviously aimed at Trump. Yet, if Obama was not himself a CON MAN, then he would not be forced to step inside of the circus tent – and that is clearly where he resides.
No, this issue is not dead, it is more important than ever as this document release, if proven to be trumped (and I think the .pdf layers do that), then it could be the downfall of a President. And I must say, that he deserves the downfall for many things, he is not an adult and has failed to reel in and contain the out of control central bankers. The results of which are a destroyed middle-class, unnecessary wars (and thousands of deaths), totally captured markets, and the loss of confidence in our monetary and political systems. Obama’s lack of honest dealing with the “birther” issue absolutely is important – it strikes at the very character of our markets, of our political system, and the way in which we represent ourselves to the rest of the world. We are being led by a CON MAN, not that changing him out will change that – we must change out WHO controls the production of money to have significance.
Meanwhile, the special interest captured government of Japan is failing to reel in TEPCO who is absolutely making the Fukushima matter worse. More radiation, and now tinkering with the reactors and fuel rod pools is getting very dangerous with the threat of further explosions possible. Particles heavier than plutonium are now being found in the United States, and the total radiation being expelled is rising to new heights. There are too many details to cover here, so please join us in the daily thread if you wish to understand the real issues involved.
Selasa, 26 April 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 4/27 – Lip Service Doesn’t Change the Impossible Math Edition…
Good Morning,
I’ll be away this morning; this short update is written on the evening of the 26th…
The market action earlier today (26th) moved all of the major indices above their upper Bollinger Bands. The Transports and the SPX broke out to new closing highs, confirming the uptrend. The XLF, however, is still weak, and the VIX barely moved down after producing a market sell signal yesterday. Conflicting signals to me are a sign of a phony market – one driven not by fundamentals, but instead driven by money printing and manipulation (you can’t argue the manipulation as buying bonds is manipulating equities).
Durable Goods and the worthless MBA Purchase Applications report will come in the morning prior to the bell – hopefully someone will post those in the daily thread, if not I will when I return.
The FOMC announcement comes earlier than usual with the new format – 12:30 Eastern instead of 2:15. This is a SICK game that the “Fed” plays with the markets, lip service that is in fact nothing but psychological manipulation by those who stole the power to produce this nation’s money. They have created a completely impossible math situation, and nothing that Bernanke utters will change that… especially more lip service in the form of a post FOMC news conference. It’s kind of like having your torturer whisper sweet nothings in your ear right before they dunk your head under water for the hundredth time! Gee, thanks…
Raise your hand if you think Bernanke is going to say something stupid! What a ridiculous game, I feel like we should all be pounding out our flour on the nearest flat rock…
Standard & Poor’s tonight downgraded Japan from stable to watch “negative,” just like the U.S.. The truth, of course is that the impossible math of Japan is far further progressed than here and Standard & Poor’s is anything but in front of the situation. Yes, their conflicted business model is a large part of the situation in which we find ourselves (Japan Debt Outlook Cut to Negative by S&P on Reconstruction).
More and more evidence points to our own assessments about the Fukushima nuclear plants being far more accurate than the official story line. Now they are finally admitting leaks in 3 of the reactors, they are admitting that the number 4 fuel pool is leaking, and now experts are considering the possibility that the number 3 explosion wasn’t just hydrogen, but that it also had a nuclear impetus that spread the number 3 fuel pool fuel all over the planet…
I’ll be away this morning; this short update is written on the evening of the 26th…
The market action earlier today (26th) moved all of the major indices above their upper Bollinger Bands. The Transports and the SPX broke out to new closing highs, confirming the uptrend. The XLF, however, is still weak, and the VIX barely moved down after producing a market sell signal yesterday. Conflicting signals to me are a sign of a phony market – one driven not by fundamentals, but instead driven by money printing and manipulation (you can’t argue the manipulation as buying bonds is manipulating equities).
Durable Goods and the worthless MBA Purchase Applications report will come in the morning prior to the bell – hopefully someone will post those in the daily thread, if not I will when I return.
The FOMC announcement comes earlier than usual with the new format – 12:30 Eastern instead of 2:15. This is a SICK game that the “Fed” plays with the markets, lip service that is in fact nothing but psychological manipulation by those who stole the power to produce this nation’s money. They have created a completely impossible math situation, and nothing that Bernanke utters will change that… especially more lip service in the form of a post FOMC news conference. It’s kind of like having your torturer whisper sweet nothings in your ear right before they dunk your head under water for the hundredth time! Gee, thanks…
Raise your hand if you think Bernanke is going to say something stupid! What a ridiculous game, I feel like we should all be pounding out our flour on the nearest flat rock…
Standard & Poor’s tonight downgraded Japan from stable to watch “negative,” just like the U.S.. The truth, of course is that the impossible math of Japan is far further progressed than here and Standard & Poor’s is anything but in front of the situation. Yes, their conflicted business model is a large part of the situation in which we find ourselves (Japan Debt Outlook Cut to Negative by S&P on Reconstruction).
More and more evidence points to our own assessments about the Fukushima nuclear plants being far more accurate than the official story line. Now they are finally admitting leaks in 3 of the reactors, they are admitting that the number 4 fuel pool is leaking, and now experts are considering the possibility that the number 3 explosion wasn’t just hydrogen, but that it also had a nuclear impetus that spread the number 3 fuel pool fuel all over the planet…
Gundersen Postulates Unit 3 Explosion May Have Been Prompt Criticality in Fuel Pool
Again, to me we have a deadly serious situation in which a corporate special interest has been stonewalling the public. Not only that, the captured governments of Japan and the United States have failed to act in humanity’s best interest. At least I can give the Soviet Union far superior grades from that standpoint for the way that they quickly produced an all-out effort to contain the radiation of Chernobyl. Looking at both incidents now in hindsight, it is clear to me that the Russians lacked this special interest capture and thus the government was able to act. Sure would be nice to learn this lesson, it’s the same lesson we should have learned following the BP oil spill.
Have a great morning, carry on my wayward sons, and enjoy the “Fed” lip flappin’!
Morning Update/ Market Thread 4/26 - Broke Edition...
Good Morning,
Equity futures are higher, again on the back of a broken dollar which is sinking once again. Bonds are rising which does not back the rise in equities, oil is higher, and most food commodities are slightly lower. Gold is slightly lower, but regaining its footing after being much lower overnight, and silver fell sharply off new highs yesterday when margin requirements were hiked in an attempt to manipulate the price down. This did produce a top-looking candlestick, and the price is lower this morning, however I would be very suspicious of manipulated tops as my experience is that they don’t last. The $50 silver barrier was obviously too hot for the manipulators to stand, but it is they who broke the markets in the first place, once you break confidence it cannot be undone.
The FOMC meeting begins today, and we’ll see both “Consumer” Confidence and State Street Confidence numbers at 10 Eastern. This will be interesting as one confidence number has been sinking while the other has been soaring. Guess which is which? One is benefiting from money printing while the other is taking it in the shorts. Tune into the daily thread to see how this one turns out.
This morning Case-Shiller reported home Prices for February. Month to month, home prices dropped by 1.1%, this is more than January’s .9% fall which was subsequently revised to a 1.0% decline. Year over Year, prices fell 2.6%, this is an acceleration of price decline from 2.0%, and is worse than the 2.2% drop expected. Here’s Econospin blaming the weather as if bad weather never happens in February:
And for those who can handle less spin, here’s the entire report including a couple of nice charts worth taking a look at – Can you say “double dip?” I thought so, let’s face it, the housing market is broken:
Case Shiller February
With earnings season in full swing, “profits” appear on the surface to be peachy. However, looking under the hood a little the falsehoods of fraud and money printing can be seen if you’re willing to look. For example, the XLF has been lagging far behind the rest of the market despite record “profits” for Wall Street banks. Here’s a chart of the XLF, why is it lagging so badly?
Well, here’s a clue:
The bottom line is that the banks are NOT making money the old fashioned way – via prudent lending. The large banks have morphed into something completely unrecognizable… they are now behemoth corporations that control the production of money, they control and manipulate all the markets, and they speculate in the same markets that they own and control. Oh, and while they are doing that, they are busy marking their debt and derivatives to a fantasy model of their own creation! Nice business model. The truth, of course, is that the large banks are insolvent, as in BROKE when their REAL assets are compared to their liabilities. These banks literally own the “FED” and they have totally captured politics and economic policy.
It’s quite the bizarre situation when you pause to really think about it.
Yesterday’s market volume was the lowest of the year. It also produced a VIX market Sell Signal which occurs when the VIX closes back above the lower Bollinger band after closing a daily candle below it:
That sell signal has been overrun recently by money printing, so I wouldn’t bet the farm on it, especially with inverted and bullish Head & Shoulder patterns in play. Still, this signal if it is prophesying a market decline, usually leads the market by a few days – so patience is required even when the market isn’t as highly manipulated as it is now.
Here's the latest update from Arnie Gunderson calling for a pause and rethinking of our nuclear power programs - he's spot on, only I think the shift needs to be even more dramatic:
Equity futures are higher, again on the back of a broken dollar which is sinking once again. Bonds are rising which does not back the rise in equities, oil is higher, and most food commodities are slightly lower. Gold is slightly lower, but regaining its footing after being much lower overnight, and silver fell sharply off new highs yesterday when margin requirements were hiked in an attempt to manipulate the price down. This did produce a top-looking candlestick, and the price is lower this morning, however I would be very suspicious of manipulated tops as my experience is that they don’t last. The $50 silver barrier was obviously too hot for the manipulators to stand, but it is they who broke the markets in the first place, once you break confidence it cannot be undone.
The FOMC meeting begins today, and we’ll see both “Consumer” Confidence and State Street Confidence numbers at 10 Eastern. This will be interesting as one confidence number has been sinking while the other has been soaring. Guess which is which? One is benefiting from money printing while the other is taking it in the shorts. Tune into the daily thread to see how this one turns out.
This morning Case-Shiller reported home Prices for February. Month to month, home prices dropped by 1.1%, this is more than January’s .9% fall which was subsequently revised to a 1.0% decline. Year over Year, prices fell 2.6%, this is an acceleration of price decline from 2.0%, and is worse than the 2.2% drop expected. Here’s Econospin blaming the weather as if bad weather never happens in February:
Highlights
S&P Case Shiller data are mixed in what is probably a good sign for home prices which have been in a long and damaging slide. Seasonally adjusted data for the composite 10 index show a 0.2 percent decline for February, less steep than the 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent declines of the two prior months. These are three-month moving averages which indicates that February showed little change. Year-on-year contraction, however, is deepening, to minus 2.6 percent vs. minus 2.2 percent in January and minus 1.4 percent in December. Unadjusted data, which is widely looked at in this report, show a 1.1 percent monthly slide that reflects weather issues.
And for those who can handle less spin, here’s the entire report including a couple of nice charts worth taking a look at – Can you say “double dip?” I thought so, let’s face it, the housing market is broken:
Case Shiller February
With earnings season in full swing, “profits” appear on the surface to be peachy. However, looking under the hood a little the falsehoods of fraud and money printing can be seen if you’re willing to look. For example, the XLF has been lagging far behind the rest of the market despite record “profits” for Wall Street banks. Here’s a chart of the XLF, why is it lagging so badly?
Well, here’s a clue:
Biggest Banks Beating Estimates Can’t Hide 13% Drop in Revenue
April 26 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest percentage drop in quarterly revenue in three years, driven by lower lending and reduced fees, is damping investor appetite for shares of the six largest U.S. banks.
Net revenue at the six lenders -- Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley -- fell 13.3 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Pretax pre-provision profits, which exclude taxes, loan-loss provisions and one-time items and are considered a better gauge of profitability than earnings, slid 40.2 percent.
While five of the banks beat analysts’ estimates, and JPMorgan and Wells Fargo reported record quarterly earnings, anemic revenue and a steady drop in pre-provision profits have kept investors at bay. Since JPMorgan reported earnings on April 13 with a 67 percent rise in net income to $5.6 billion, the KBW Bank Index of the 24 largest U.S. banks has fallen 3.5 percent as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 1.6 percent.
“You’re seeing people backing off of exposure to this space because of the lack of loan growth and poor revenue growth,” said Paul Miller, a former examiner for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and an analyst for FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia. “It’s not a sell-off -- it’s more of a slow drift down. These stocks are going to trade very weak” until their loan books and revenue start to grow.
The bottom line is that the banks are NOT making money the old fashioned way – via prudent lending. The large banks have morphed into something completely unrecognizable… they are now behemoth corporations that control the production of money, they control and manipulate all the markets, and they speculate in the same markets that they own and control. Oh, and while they are doing that, they are busy marking their debt and derivatives to a fantasy model of their own creation! Nice business model. The truth, of course, is that the large banks are insolvent, as in BROKE when their REAL assets are compared to their liabilities. These banks literally own the “FED” and they have totally captured politics and economic policy.
It’s quite the bizarre situation when you pause to really think about it.
Yesterday’s market volume was the lowest of the year. It also produced a VIX market Sell Signal which occurs when the VIX closes back above the lower Bollinger band after closing a daily candle below it:
That sell signal has been overrun recently by money printing, so I wouldn’t bet the farm on it, especially with inverted and bullish Head & Shoulder patterns in play. Still, this signal if it is prophesying a market decline, usually leads the market by a few days – so patience is required even when the market isn’t as highly manipulated as it is now.
Here's the latest update from Arnie Gunderson calling for a pause and rethinking of our nuclear power programs - he's spot on, only I think the shift needs to be even more dramatic:
Fairewinds Calls for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to Delay Licensing Until Fukushima Lessons Are Evaluated
From my perspective the regulators are broken, the housing market is broken, the banks are broken, the United States is broke, the rest of the developed world is broke, and what we call “markets” are completely and totally broken. Oh, and don’t forget Broke Back Bucky, he’s broken too…
Senin, 25 April 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 4/25
Good Morning,
Equity futures are flat to down slightly heading into the open. The dollar is lower, bonds are flat, oil is higher, gold is higher, silver gapped higher, and most food commodities are substantially higher as well.
New Home Sales are released at 10 Eastern this morning. This is a busy week for economic data, the FOMC announces on Wednesday, Q1 GDP comes on Thursday, and we’ll see both “Consumer” Confidence and Sentiment numbers this week – something that commodity prices should be affecting.
It seems like much time is wasted wondering what the Chinese will do – will they revalue the Yuan? Will they sell off their U.S. debt holdings? In the end, whatever they do is the result of the impossible math that WE’VE created. The impossible math is glaringly obvious, yet we continue to do nothing about it except to distract the masses with “investigations” into high oil prices (which never find anything or anyone to blame), or by dropping bombs on other world leader’s compounds as if assassinating whoever we want is no big deal.
I have to keep this update short as I will be out of town for the morning – will have more tomorrow.
Equity futures are flat to down slightly heading into the open. The dollar is lower, bonds are flat, oil is higher, gold is higher, silver gapped higher, and most food commodities are substantially higher as well.
New Home Sales are released at 10 Eastern this morning. This is a busy week for economic data, the FOMC announces on Wednesday, Q1 GDP comes on Thursday, and we’ll see both “Consumer” Confidence and Sentiment numbers this week – something that commodity prices should be affecting.
It seems like much time is wasted wondering what the Chinese will do – will they revalue the Yuan? Will they sell off their U.S. debt holdings? In the end, whatever they do is the result of the impossible math that WE’VE created. The impossible math is glaringly obvious, yet we continue to do nothing about it except to distract the masses with “investigations” into high oil prices (which never find anything or anyone to blame), or by dropping bombs on other world leader’s compounds as if assassinating whoever we want is no big deal.
I have to keep this update short as I will be out of town for the morning – will have more tomorrow.
Sabtu, 23 April 2011
Jumat, 22 April 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 4/22 - Dear Mr. President, YOU are the Oil Speculator...
Good Morning,
Markets are closed today, and there are no economic releases. Next week will bring a lot of data including Q1 GDP which is forecast to have risen 2.0%, down from 3.1% in Q4, 2010. Wednesday will also bring more lip flapping from the “Fed’s” FOMC, and oh boy, we get a historic first in that Bernanke will hold a press conference after the announcement. What a placating joke.
Once again President Obama says that the evil speculators are running up the price of oil and that he’s really going to crack down on them! This time he means it. Of course he said basically the same exact thing back in 2009, and then again in 2010, and how’s that worked out so far? Oh yeah, and here’s what he said when he was running for President, showing just how knowledgeable our President is on the subject:
Well, here’s a tip, Mr. President. Take a look at the following chart and see if you can spot the correlation:
Okay, so WHO is in charge of the monetary base, Mr. President? Yes, that’s right, the same PRIVATE bankers who pretend to be a government agency and are the largest donators to your campaign. The same bankers who you promised time and again to crack down on, but never did. If and when you get serious about controlling speculation in the oil markets, then please write and I’ll fill you in on how to actually accomplish that – just make sure you surround yourself with your most trusted security force first!
And Mr. President, just so that you’re not confused on where the fuel for the speculation is coming from, let’s discuss that aspect because it seems that many people are being fooled by the “Fed’s” mechanics of “Quantitative Easing.” The trail they have built for America is one based upon deception.
But to fully understand this deception, we must first understand that there are three types of money:
1. Credit Money – this is money that is borrowed under contract, must be repaid within a specified timeframe, and bears interest. Prior to QE, 100% of our traceable money was credit money – new money came into existence through private loans, and if the government needed more money than they received in taxes, then they could barrow more in the form of bonds – usually bought by the private banks. In this way, ALL money is created by the PRIVATE banks, is someone’s obligation, and bears interest.
2. Sovereign Money – This is money created by the government without debt. Our government does not produce sovereign money any longer.
3. Other Money – Other money is created by instruments that act like money, but are neither sovereign produced, nor bear interest. This is BY FAR the largest type of money in existence. It includes all derivative instruments, trading on margin, futures (which are just another form of derivative), and any thing else that acts like money generally to create leverage (which is the act of effectively multiplying money).
Now we need to talk about Inflation and Deflation. For overall MONETARY inflation to occur, the total supply of all three forms of money must rise. For monetary deflation to occur, the total of all three forms of money must decline.
Monetary inflation/ deflation is not necessarily the same as overall PRICE inflation/ deflation. It is possible to have the money supply growing, for example, but to have overall PRICE deflation occur if the population size is growing faster than the total supply of money – and visa versa.
Let’s examine the “Roaring Twenties.” At the time, there was a mix of sovereign money (supposedly “gold backed”), privately created credit money, and then massive amounts of margin was used to buy up stock which inflated the price of equities. The aggregate of all three dramatically outstripped the growth in population and overall price inflation broke out, especially in equities where margin was rampant. This created a bubble which was not supported by income and thus the bubble burst in the year 1929 – note that having gold backed sovereign money DID NOT stop the bubble from being created! This is because private credit and margin were not kept under control. And that is because we allowed the private bankers to be in control, and it was in their interest to let it get out of control – the very same thing that is happening today.
Here’s what most “economists” either don’t know or don’t admit. Credit dollar creation is inflationary up until the point of debt saturation which is when income can no longer support it. Once debt saturation is reached, then credit creation becomes deflationary!!! This is why we had the wave of deflation that began in 2007 and roared into 2009.
During the Great Depression, margin money and credit money were allowed to contract. That allowed debt to fall to the point that income could support it, and then REAL growth resumed.
Today we have failed to let derivatives, margin, and credit money contract. Our income still cannot support more debt, and thus we are still debt saturated.
In comes the “Fed” to try something “different” because we don’t want to repeat the Great Depression: So instead of letting the debt properly default, and let investors deleverage their margin, the “Fed” instead began transferring the private debt and leverage onto itself with a guarantee by the American taxpayer. This is exactly what “QE” is – it is a shift of debt from private banks onto the general population. Doing so IS MONEY “PRINTING,” but it is simply indirect instead of direct. By taking debt instruments off the private banks, they are thus allowing the total money (all three types) to expand where otherwise it could not have!
Understand? In this way the mechanics of QE are designed to fool you. They get to claim that at some point they will be repaid, but that is simply a game, because in the mean time the banks are allowed to generate even more, and thus the total supply of money skyrockets. That’s the fuel that creates the speculation.
My contention is that the total supply of the three types of money is unknowable because derivatives and margin are so out of control. Banks are effectively being allowed to “fractional reserve” to infinity, and thus producing nearly infinite leverage. This, of course, is NOT supported by income – and thus is GUARANTEED to fail.
It is the creation of too much credit, and too much of the “other money” type that is the problem. It became a problem because we allowed private individuals to control its production. Think about it – any individual, and even any politician who is given the power to create money will find ways to create more of it. Give me that power, and I’ll show you how!
But it is possible to create a system that works – that is sustainable over time, allows prosperity, but also allows contraction without collapse. Such a system should, in my opinion, be a mix of private credit money, and sovereign money with NO “other money.” If your goal is truly to reign in speculation in oil, food, or anything else, that is the only proper direction to head.
WHO controls the production of our money, Mr. President, WHO.
Still more radiation is being found in feeding mother’s breast milk in Japan. Of the nine mothers tested so far, half have radioactive iodine contamination, and the most contaminated mother lives 150 miles away. According to one nuclear expert, the currently reported levels of radioactive iodine at the Fukushima plant absolutely mean that nuclear fission is taking place both in the reactors and in the cooling pools – Expert who worked at Sandia Labs: “TEPCO data suggest that fission is ongoing… This is bad news” — “Truly scary” that nobody in Japan seems to know basics of reactor accident progression. And thus radiation continues to pour out of the plant, across the ocean, and into our food and water supply where they are continuing to find increasing levels of radiation in our water, milk, and soil.
Yet according to the FDA, not to worry, it’s all safe… Well here’s a conversation that Arnie Gunderson had with Dr. Steven Wing regarding radiation exposure. No, there’s no “safe” level of radiation. And what Dr. Wing pointed out is that even though the radiation is spread very widely, the total number of cancers does not decrease because of the dispersion! In other words, the more radiation that comes out, the more cancers there are regardless of how widely it disperses.
Markets are closed today, and there are no economic releases. Next week will bring a lot of data including Q1 GDP which is forecast to have risen 2.0%, down from 3.1% in Q4, 2010. Wednesday will also bring more lip flapping from the “Fed’s” FOMC, and oh boy, we get a historic first in that Bernanke will hold a press conference after the announcement. What a placating joke.
Once again President Obama says that the evil speculators are running up the price of oil and that he’s really going to crack down on them! This time he means it. Of course he said basically the same exact thing back in 2009, and then again in 2010, and how’s that worked out so far? Oh yeah, and here’s what he said when he was running for President, showing just how knowledgeable our President is on the subject:
Well, here’s a tip, Mr. President. Take a look at the following chart and see if you can spot the correlation:
Okay, so WHO is in charge of the monetary base, Mr. President? Yes, that’s right, the same PRIVATE bankers who pretend to be a government agency and are the largest donators to your campaign. The same bankers who you promised time and again to crack down on, but never did. If and when you get serious about controlling speculation in the oil markets, then please write and I’ll fill you in on how to actually accomplish that – just make sure you surround yourself with your most trusted security force first!
And Mr. President, just so that you’re not confused on where the fuel for the speculation is coming from, let’s discuss that aspect because it seems that many people are being fooled by the “Fed’s” mechanics of “Quantitative Easing.” The trail they have built for America is one based upon deception.
But to fully understand this deception, we must first understand that there are three types of money:
1. Credit Money – this is money that is borrowed under contract, must be repaid within a specified timeframe, and bears interest. Prior to QE, 100% of our traceable money was credit money – new money came into existence through private loans, and if the government needed more money than they received in taxes, then they could barrow more in the form of bonds – usually bought by the private banks. In this way, ALL money is created by the PRIVATE banks, is someone’s obligation, and bears interest.
2. Sovereign Money – This is money created by the government without debt. Our government does not produce sovereign money any longer.
3. Other Money – Other money is created by instruments that act like money, but are neither sovereign produced, nor bear interest. This is BY FAR the largest type of money in existence. It includes all derivative instruments, trading on margin, futures (which are just another form of derivative), and any thing else that acts like money generally to create leverage (which is the act of effectively multiplying money).
Now we need to talk about Inflation and Deflation. For overall MONETARY inflation to occur, the total supply of all three forms of money must rise. For monetary deflation to occur, the total of all three forms of money must decline.
Monetary inflation/ deflation is not necessarily the same as overall PRICE inflation/ deflation. It is possible to have the money supply growing, for example, but to have overall PRICE deflation occur if the population size is growing faster than the total supply of money – and visa versa.
Let’s examine the “Roaring Twenties.” At the time, there was a mix of sovereign money (supposedly “gold backed”), privately created credit money, and then massive amounts of margin was used to buy up stock which inflated the price of equities. The aggregate of all three dramatically outstripped the growth in population and overall price inflation broke out, especially in equities where margin was rampant. This created a bubble which was not supported by income and thus the bubble burst in the year 1929 – note that having gold backed sovereign money DID NOT stop the bubble from being created! This is because private credit and margin were not kept under control. And that is because we allowed the private bankers to be in control, and it was in their interest to let it get out of control – the very same thing that is happening today.
Here’s what most “economists” either don’t know or don’t admit. Credit dollar creation is inflationary up until the point of debt saturation which is when income can no longer support it. Once debt saturation is reached, then credit creation becomes deflationary!!! This is why we had the wave of deflation that began in 2007 and roared into 2009.
During the Great Depression, margin money and credit money were allowed to contract. That allowed debt to fall to the point that income could support it, and then REAL growth resumed.
Today we have failed to let derivatives, margin, and credit money contract. Our income still cannot support more debt, and thus we are still debt saturated.
In comes the “Fed” to try something “different” because we don’t want to repeat the Great Depression: So instead of letting the debt properly default, and let investors deleverage their margin, the “Fed” instead began transferring the private debt and leverage onto itself with a guarantee by the American taxpayer. This is exactly what “QE” is – it is a shift of debt from private banks onto the general population. Doing so IS MONEY “PRINTING,” but it is simply indirect instead of direct. By taking debt instruments off the private banks, they are thus allowing the total money (all three types) to expand where otherwise it could not have!
Understand? In this way the mechanics of QE are designed to fool you. They get to claim that at some point they will be repaid, but that is simply a game, because in the mean time the banks are allowed to generate even more, and thus the total supply of money skyrockets. That’s the fuel that creates the speculation.
My contention is that the total supply of the three types of money is unknowable because derivatives and margin are so out of control. Banks are effectively being allowed to “fractional reserve” to infinity, and thus producing nearly infinite leverage. This, of course, is NOT supported by income – and thus is GUARANTEED to fail.
It is the creation of too much credit, and too much of the “other money” type that is the problem. It became a problem because we allowed private individuals to control its production. Think about it – any individual, and even any politician who is given the power to create money will find ways to create more of it. Give me that power, and I’ll show you how!
But it is possible to create a system that works – that is sustainable over time, allows prosperity, but also allows contraction without collapse. Such a system should, in my opinion, be a mix of private credit money, and sovereign money with NO “other money.” If your goal is truly to reign in speculation in oil, food, or anything else, that is the only proper direction to head.
WHO controls the production of our money, Mr. President, WHO.
Still more radiation is being found in feeding mother’s breast milk in Japan. Of the nine mothers tested so far, half have radioactive iodine contamination, and the most contaminated mother lives 150 miles away. According to one nuclear expert, the currently reported levels of radioactive iodine at the Fukushima plant absolutely mean that nuclear fission is taking place both in the reactors and in the cooling pools – Expert who worked at Sandia Labs: “TEPCO data suggest that fission is ongoing… This is bad news” — “Truly scary” that nobody in Japan seems to know basics of reactor accident progression. And thus radiation continues to pour out of the plant, across the ocean, and into our food and water supply where they are continuing to find increasing levels of radiation in our water, milk, and soil.
Yet according to the FDA, not to worry, it’s all safe… Well here’s a conversation that Arnie Gunderson had with Dr. Steven Wing regarding radiation exposure. No, there’s no “safe” level of radiation. And what Dr. Wing pointed out is that even though the radiation is spread very widely, the total number of cancers does not decrease because of the dispersion! In other words, the more radiation that comes out, the more cancers there are regardless of how widely it disperses.
Epidemiologist, Dr. Steven Wing, Discusses Global Radiation Exposures and Consequences with Gundersen
While I wholeheartedly support what Dr. Wing is saying regarding acting collectively to ensure safety, I strongly disagree that there’s nothing you can do to protect yourself individually. You can strive to eat food and drink water that was produced prior to the spread of radiation. You can avoid milk and creamy dairy products. You can install a reverse osmosis filter for your home’s water. And if you want to get even more creative, there are many other things you can do as well. The young, in particular, should be protected.
And our government absolutely needs to get far more proactive, but again, they have been completely captured by special interests and thus will fail again in that regard.
Kamis, 21 April 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 4/21
Good Morning,
Equity futures are up slightly following yesterday’s wild gap. The dollar is down some more, falling below the 2009 lows showing that this is a higher level wave lower. Of course as the dollar falls in value, the cost of oil goes up, and WTI is now $111 and change. Gold and silver are both higher still, with rumors now floating that someone/ some group/ some nation is working to corner the silver market. Personally doubt that the heavy buying is an attempt to “corner the market,” rather it is a statement about the value of the dollar – I say that because silver is catching up to gold which is also setting records. Of course most food commodities are also higher.
The weekly Jobless Claims number came in above 400K again. At 403,000, this is well above the consensus that was looking for 390k, and once again last week’s number was revised higher. Here’s Econohope:
The Philly Fed, Home Price Index, and “Leading Indicators” are released at 10 Eastern and will be reported inside of the daily thread comments below this post.
Why is the market and commodities zooming? Could billions per day in hot money have anything to do with it? Let’s take a look at a chart I built this morning showing the cost of oil versus the monetary base:
Hmmm… there’s a pretty big story there I think, and it pretty much puts the blame squarely where it belongs. You can blame demand (falling), or mid-east wars (American manipulation), or even speculators for the cost of oil, but it is the constant flow of hot money, including billions of dollars per day, that is really behind rising prices. The “Fed” is out of control with the production of money.
This week the housing data was touted in the mainstream as “flexing muscle.” [insert major eye roll here] Below are the freshly updated charts of Housing Starts and Permits, you decide how bright the future looks based on these:
STARTS:
PERMITS:
I’ll simply note that a REAL economic recovery has never occurred without the housing industry leading the way. If you look at all the info in the charts above what is it that’s leading the way? Oh yeah, money printing. Extraordinary money printing. Of course there needs to be sufficient money or the economy will suffer, but when you overdo it, the economy also suffers. These wild swings are brought to you because of the “Fed” controlled system. It doesn’t work to have private individuals manage the nation’s money – period.
Now there are rumors that the “Fed” may be selling put options on Treasury Bonds in order to drive down yields. While I don’t know if they are doing this for a fact, it wouldn’t surprise me as I know that desperate people do desperate things. The “Fed” is desperate to keep “growth” going at any cost, and they are taking actions that only desperate men would take. Manipulation is everywhere and because there is a complete lack of transparency in the markets, it is impossible to know everything that those doing the manipulating are up to. Here’s a clear explanation of what might be happening in this regard:
Fraud is what it amounts to – and fraud is rampant.
Updating the nuclear situation, forecasts are showing a large amount of radiation crossing the Pacific and reaching the United States – again crickets from our mainstream and our politicians. Meanwhile tests by Berkeley University are showing increasing levels of radiation in milk (San Francisco) and in the soil at the base of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Radiation is also now turning up in breast milk tested in Japan. Still, the radiation pours out of Fukushima and no serious action to contain the radiation is occurring.
Yesterday’s ramp in the market managed to push the DOW Industrials to new highs, but the Transports and SPX failed to confirm that, thus there is a potential non-confirmation now in place. But as long as the money pumping continues, we can expect higher prices for everything – and that’s the catch. They can’t force the hot money to go only where they want it. And they’re not willing to pass it on to the people so that they can keep up with inflation, and thus their pump money strategy is clearly limited – we are at or near those limits now.
Equity futures are up slightly following yesterday’s wild gap. The dollar is down some more, falling below the 2009 lows showing that this is a higher level wave lower. Of course as the dollar falls in value, the cost of oil goes up, and WTI is now $111 and change. Gold and silver are both higher still, with rumors now floating that someone/ some group/ some nation is working to corner the silver market. Personally doubt that the heavy buying is an attempt to “corner the market,” rather it is a statement about the value of the dollar – I say that because silver is catching up to gold which is also setting records. Of course most food commodities are also higher.
The weekly Jobless Claims number came in above 400K again. At 403,000, this is well above the consensus that was looking for 390k, and once again last week’s number was revised higher. Here’s Econohope:
Highlights
Fewer workers filed for initial unemployment benefits in the latest week but the data nevertheless point to risk for the April-to-March comparison. Initial claims fell 13,000 in the April 16 week to 403,000, not quite as low as expected and compared with 416,000 in the prior week (revised 4,000 higher). The latest improvement was too modest to keep the four-week average from rising for the fourth time in five weeks, up 2,250 to 399,000. A look back at this time last month shows the average at 391,000.
The Labor Department cited no special items in the latest week and once again made no mention of a possible Japanese effect. Before the ongoing bump, jobless claims had been showing two years of steady improvement. Stocks edged off highs in initial reaction to today's results.
The Philly Fed, Home Price Index, and “Leading Indicators” are released at 10 Eastern and will be reported inside of the daily thread comments below this post.
Why is the market and commodities zooming? Could billions per day in hot money have anything to do with it? Let’s take a look at a chart I built this morning showing the cost of oil versus the monetary base:
Hmmm… there’s a pretty big story there I think, and it pretty much puts the blame squarely where it belongs. You can blame demand (falling), or mid-east wars (American manipulation), or even speculators for the cost of oil, but it is the constant flow of hot money, including billions of dollars per day, that is really behind rising prices. The “Fed” is out of control with the production of money.
This week the housing data was touted in the mainstream as “flexing muscle.” [insert major eye roll here] Below are the freshly updated charts of Housing Starts and Permits, you decide how bright the future looks based on these:
STARTS:
PERMITS:
I’ll simply note that a REAL economic recovery has never occurred without the housing industry leading the way. If you look at all the info in the charts above what is it that’s leading the way? Oh yeah, money printing. Extraordinary money printing. Of course there needs to be sufficient money or the economy will suffer, but when you overdo it, the economy also suffers. These wild swings are brought to you because of the “Fed” controlled system. It doesn’t work to have private individuals manage the nation’s money – period.
Now there are rumors that the “Fed” may be selling put options on Treasury Bonds in order to drive down yields. While I don’t know if they are doing this for a fact, it wouldn’t surprise me as I know that desperate people do desperate things. The “Fed” is desperate to keep “growth” going at any cost, and they are taking actions that only desperate men would take. Manipulation is everywhere and because there is a complete lack of transparency in the markets, it is impossible to know everything that those doing the manipulating are up to. Here’s a clear explanation of what might be happening in this regard:
Fraud is what it amounts to – and fraud is rampant.
Updating the nuclear situation, forecasts are showing a large amount of radiation crossing the Pacific and reaching the United States – again crickets from our mainstream and our politicians. Meanwhile tests by Berkeley University are showing increasing levels of radiation in milk (San Francisco) and in the soil at the base of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Radiation is also now turning up in breast milk tested in Japan. Still, the radiation pours out of Fukushima and no serious action to contain the radiation is occurring.
Yesterday’s ramp in the market managed to push the DOW Industrials to new highs, but the Transports and SPX failed to confirm that, thus there is a potential non-confirmation now in place. But as long as the money pumping continues, we can expect higher prices for everything – and that’s the catch. They can’t force the hot money to go only where they want it. And they’re not willing to pass it on to the people so that they can keep up with inflation, and thus their pump money strategy is clearly limited – we are at or near those limits now.
Rabu, 20 April 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 4/20
Good Morning,
Equity futures continue to ramp overnight on the back of a broken dollar which is plummeting to new short term lows, bonds are roughly flat, WTI oil is climbing again and now just beneath $110 a barrel, gold is setting new all-time records of course - now well above $1,500 an ounce, silver is moving straight up and is now pushing $45 an ounce, and food commodities are shooting the moon today as well.
Let’s put it this way… for stocks to double again, oil, gold, and food would also likely double again. Is that going to happen? Only if our money flat out crashes in value, Zimbabwe style. Perhaps that’s what President Obama meant when he repeatedly stated that we are going to “double our exports in five years?” Can you imagine the impact that would have on the economy and on your personal habits? Devastating – because I will personally guarantee you that your income won’t do the same.
Wonder why oil and the price of everything is rising so dramatically? Look no further than shear panic on the part of the “Fed” who is ramping monetary base literally straight up:
Gold appears to me to have put in a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern that is targeting roughly $1,560 an ounce. Should it make it there, I would then look for a pullback to the multi-year rising trendline that will by then be well above $1,400 an ounce:
Silver is moving in a much more dramatic vertical fashion… this is a dangerous play as there is no telling how high it will go before it gives in. All parabolic moves eventually collapse, but this could be – repeat could be – signaling a rapid devaluation of our money.
The run up in food commodities, of course, will continue to pressure people the world over who are living on the margins. More atrocities are occurring daily – these are sponsored by our own “Fed” who breeds trouble the world over.
The completely conflicted Mortgage Banker’s Association released their phony Purchase Index claiming that it raised – get this – 10.0% in just one week! They really expect me to believe that sales are so volatile that they can rise 10% in one week? Do they think we all have rocks in our heads? Or are they the ones with rocks between the ears? You decide:
(cough, cough, bullshit)
Existing Home Sales is released at 10 Eastern. Keep in mind that it is spring time (duh), and that home sales will increase (duh), but keep the numbers in perspective with the depression that we are in. Also keep the following Option-ARM reset chart in mind:
Very telling for me in the markets, NYSE margin debt increased to its second highest reading of all-time, just behind February of 2008. This should concern anyone long the market as extreme leveraging absolutely creates bubble peaks – think 1929 and 2007/ 2008.
Following the crisis in Fukushima, Japan raised the annual limit that nuclear workers could be exposed to from 100 milli-sievert/year, to 250. Now they are raising it again to 500 – that’s a 500% increase in allowable radiation – a level that is far beyond what any rational person would consider safe. Even the Soviet Union approached the problem way differently – they brought in literally hundreds of thousands of workers in order to limit their expose. Here they are simply dooming a fewer number. But their actions to date are falling far short as yet another day without containment passes.
Huge gaps in the charts again, the NDX just leaped in one overnight session from the bottom Bollinger to the top Bollinger:
Not a market, this is something not recognizable. Price leaps like that are far more frightening to me than stock market declines. That’s because I know why this is occurring, and it is devastating to the vast majority of the population.
Equity futures continue to ramp overnight on the back of a broken dollar which is plummeting to new short term lows, bonds are roughly flat, WTI oil is climbing again and now just beneath $110 a barrel, gold is setting new all-time records of course - now well above $1,500 an ounce, silver is moving straight up and is now pushing $45 an ounce, and food commodities are shooting the moon today as well.
Let’s put it this way… for stocks to double again, oil, gold, and food would also likely double again. Is that going to happen? Only if our money flat out crashes in value, Zimbabwe style. Perhaps that’s what President Obama meant when he repeatedly stated that we are going to “double our exports in five years?” Can you imagine the impact that would have on the economy and on your personal habits? Devastating – because I will personally guarantee you that your income won’t do the same.
Wonder why oil and the price of everything is rising so dramatically? Look no further than shear panic on the part of the “Fed” who is ramping monetary base literally straight up:
Gold appears to me to have put in a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern that is targeting roughly $1,560 an ounce. Should it make it there, I would then look for a pullback to the multi-year rising trendline that will by then be well above $1,400 an ounce:
Silver is moving in a much more dramatic vertical fashion… this is a dangerous play as there is no telling how high it will go before it gives in. All parabolic moves eventually collapse, but this could be – repeat could be – signaling a rapid devaluation of our money.
The run up in food commodities, of course, will continue to pressure people the world over who are living on the margins. More atrocities are occurring daily – these are sponsored by our own “Fed” who breeds trouble the world over.
The completely conflicted Mortgage Banker’s Association released their phony Purchase Index claiming that it raised – get this – 10.0% in just one week! They really expect me to believe that sales are so volatile that they can rise 10% in one week? Do they think we all have rocks in our heads? Or are they the ones with rocks between the ears? You decide:
Highlights
A scheduled increase in FHA insurance premiums tripped a 10.0 percent surge in purchase applications in the April 15 week, according to the weekly Mortgage Bankers Association report. The refinance index, boosted by a 15 basis point fall in the average 30-year mortgage to 4.83 percent, rose 2.7 percent. The purchase index improved in March pointing to strength for today's 10:00 a.m. ET release of existing homes data.
(cough, cough, bullshit)
Existing Home Sales is released at 10 Eastern. Keep in mind that it is spring time (duh), and that home sales will increase (duh), but keep the numbers in perspective with the depression that we are in. Also keep the following Option-ARM reset chart in mind:
Very telling for me in the markets, NYSE margin debt increased to its second highest reading of all-time, just behind February of 2008. This should concern anyone long the market as extreme leveraging absolutely creates bubble peaks – think 1929 and 2007/ 2008.
Following the crisis in Fukushima, Japan raised the annual limit that nuclear workers could be exposed to from 100 milli-sievert/year, to 250. Now they are raising it again to 500 – that’s a 500% increase in allowable radiation – a level that is far beyond what any rational person would consider safe. Even the Soviet Union approached the problem way differently – they brought in literally hundreds of thousands of workers in order to limit their expose. Here they are simply dooming a fewer number. But their actions to date are falling far short as yet another day without containment passes.
Huge gaps in the charts again, the NDX just leaped in one overnight session from the bottom Bollinger to the top Bollinger:
Not a market, this is something not recognizable. Price leaps like that are far more frightening to me than stock market declines. That’s because I know why this is occurring, and it is devastating to the vast majority of the population.
Selasa, 19 April 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 4/19 - Can’t Quit Cold Turkey Edition…
Good Morning,
Stocks are continuing to bounce mildly after yesterday’s “Negative Watch” meltdown. The dollar is significantly lower, bonds are higher again (and against higher equities), oil is down slightly, gold pushed into a new high at $1,500 but is hovering just below that resistance level, and most food commodities are higher.
Yesterday’s action pushed the NDX into its lower Bollinger band, and the XLF closed below its lower band:
Whenever you see prices push these bands in today’s HFT computer controlled holographic world, it’s usually safe to assume that the market will at least pause there, and that’s what we’re seeing. Yesterday was a 90%+ panic selling down day that did cement a double-top looking ‘m’ formation. We’ll see.
Bloomberg is reporting, and others are guessing, that Bernanke may not be able to quit printing cold turkey! No duh, the impossible math dictates that cannot happen unless he’s willing to let the air out of the overinflated balloon:
No, it doesn’t matter what they call it, they cannot actually stop doing it without markets and the economy falling off the cliff which they created (to their own benefit).
This morning Housing Starts came in higher for March than in February as is what happens every spring. The number came in at 549,000 new starts, up from 479,000. Sounds great until you realize that these are all-time low depression era readings, that it is expected that the numbers go up in the spring, that housing completions set another new all-time low reading, and that apartment building is responsible for the majority of the starts (to house formerly middle-class Americans). Here’s Econoshill, having trouble spinning this one – yet I note the headline in CNN reads “Housing market shows some muscle.” To that I say sick and twisted, we are going to get fully what we deserve for being so full of fluff:
STARTS:
COMPLETIONS:
Think you’ll find a picture like that in the mainstream? Why not? Nope, just “Housing market shows some muscle.” Delusional/ Economic Mass Psychosis comes to mind. While disinformation is nothing new, the scope and extent of it certainly is.
Let me help the uninitiated… The markets, all of them, are rigged. The exchanges are owned by the big banks who also create money from nothing. They own HFT computers and fuel their trading with their freshly printed money. There are NO regulators – forget that quaint notion. The politicians not only do not care, they are in on it and promote it. Ordinary citizens who try to play in their casino will lose – just like a casino, you will win just enough to keep you coming back as long as you still believe in their illusion. It’s a sick and twisted situation that is nothing but outright theft in my opinion – at least a casino is honest and you know the odds going in. In the ‘markets,’ not only do you not really know the odds, you are told nothing but lies and disinformation regarding the odds. The insiders manipulate everything – all of it. There are super-insiders who reside at the Primary Dealers (they OWN the “Fed” literally), and then there are ancillary insiders, like Bill Gross, who are given access to the real inside story as long as they do the bidding for the higher ups and promote their games.
Of course then there are various levels of insiders below the ancillary level, most of these people are unaware patsies who are tossed bones as long as they support the games. All the real insiders realize that there are no regulators – and that they are safe from having bought off the politicians. The only people ever prosecuted are the patsies who have either failed to support the game properly, or who have been made a sacrificial lamb for the real insiders – Bernie Madoff comes to mind in this regard – as the big boys knew his scam and only allowed regulators to get him when the pressure was on to feed a lamb to the sharks following the turmoil they created.
So, that’s the way the real world works – “invest” at your own risk within that context. Good luck, you’ll need it.
Let’s turn to the Fukushima nuclear situation again… no, I won’t let it go – it’s the most important event still occurring on the planet. Here’s Arnie Gunderson with his latest update. This one gets a little bit technical, so you may want to replay it to follow along – I note that when he puts up the temperature charts that the first digit is not in view, so the very bottom of the temperature graph is Zero, then 50 degrees Celsius, 100, 150, 200, etcetera.
Gundersen Discusses Current Condition of Reactors, TEPCO Claim of "No Fission" in Fuel Pool, and Lack of Radiation Monitoring in
I will note that unlike what Arnie said about pressures, it’s NOT good to have ZERO pressure in a nuclear reactor – that means the containment is compromised. Some pressure would be expected, but too high of pressure is not good either. The bottom line is that these reactors and cooling pools are all sick, and the situation is worse than the Japanese are letting on. Another example is the fact that robots couldn’t get into reactor number two as the steam was too thick and fogged over the camera lenses. At the doorway radiation levels were sky high – and so how do you get workers in? You don’t because you can’t.
Meanwhile we still don’t discuss how to really contain it on site, and all the while radiation continues to pour into the environment. The latest? Fallout is now being found in the Southern Hemisphere, meaning there’s no place on the planet that’s unaffected. Our own FDA refuses to test Pacific fish? Heck yes, do as Arnie says and write your politicians, that is totally unacceptable.
Here’s a link to see the latest Xenon dispersion cloud… note that by the 23rd a very large and dense band will be aimed right at the west coast with levels similar to those passing over Japan. While on this site, you can also see the dispersion of cesium and how it’s making its way all across the United States: North America Xenon dispersion forecast from Fukushima through 4/23
Stocks are continuing to bounce mildly after yesterday’s “Negative Watch” meltdown. The dollar is significantly lower, bonds are higher again (and against higher equities), oil is down slightly, gold pushed into a new high at $1,500 but is hovering just below that resistance level, and most food commodities are higher.
Yesterday’s action pushed the NDX into its lower Bollinger band, and the XLF closed below its lower band:
Whenever you see prices push these bands in today’s HFT computer controlled holographic world, it’s usually safe to assume that the market will at least pause there, and that’s what we’re seeing. Yesterday was a 90%+ panic selling down day that did cement a double-top looking ‘m’ formation. We’ll see.
Bloomberg is reporting, and others are guessing, that Bernanke may not be able to quit printing cold turkey! No duh, the impossible math dictates that cannot happen unless he’s willing to let the air out of the overinflated balloon:
Bernanke May Avoid ‘Cold Turkey’ End to Record StimulusWhat they are suggesting here is to “reinvest maturing debt.” This talk is nothing but code/ disinformation language designed to confuse and confound the average person. They are simply saying that as debt matures that they will replace that debt with more debt in an equal number, versus the current equal number replacement PLUS. It’s still “QE,” and it’s still nothing but outright money printing in laymen terms.
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may keep reinvesting maturing debt into Treasuries to maintain record stimulus even after making good on a pledge to complete $600 billion in bond purchases by the end of June.
The Fed chief’s top two lieutenants said this month the economy and inflation are too weak to warrant the start of a monetary-policy reversal. Investors and economists including David Kelly at JPMorgan Funds see that as a signal the Fed will keep its balance sheet at current levels by replacing about $17 billion a month in maturing mortgage debt with Treasuries.
Ending the reinvestment policy and the $600 billion program at the same time would be like quitting stimulus “cold turkey,” said Kelly, who is based in New York and helps oversee $400 billion as chief market strategist at JPMorgan. “It does make sense to reinvest for a while,” he said. “Then they could watch how bond yields react to that.”
No, it doesn’t matter what they call it, they cannot actually stop doing it without markets and the economy falling off the cliff which they created (to their own benefit).
This morning Housing Starts came in higher for March than in February as is what happens every spring. The number came in at 549,000 new starts, up from 479,000. Sounds great until you realize that these are all-time low depression era readings, that it is expected that the numbers go up in the spring, that housing completions set another new all-time low reading, and that apartment building is responsible for the majority of the starts (to house formerly middle-class Americans). Here’s Econoshill, having trouble spinning this one – yet I note the headline in CNN reads “Housing market shows some muscle.” To that I say sick and twisted, we are going to get fully what we deserve for being so full of fluff:
HighlightsHey, it’s hard to go lower once you’ve fallen off a cliff. And any bounce off a cliff-dive looks big percentage wise to those who don’t ‘do’ math. So, let’s turn to a graphic for the math challenged to clearly illustrate my point:
Housing construction may be returning to normalcy after recently volatile winter months. Starts are up but still at a depressed pace. Housing starts in March rebounded 7.2 percent, following a monthly 18.5 percent drop in February. The March annualized pace of 0.549 million units came in higher than analysts' estimate for 0.525 million units and is down 13.4 percent on a year-ago basis. The improvement in March was led by a monthly 7.7 percent boost in single-family starts, following an 8.8 percent decrease in February. The multifamily component made a 5.8 percent partial comeback after plunging 39.4 percent in February. Overall starts for February were revised up to 0.512 million units annualized from the original estimate of 0.479 million.
By region, the rebound in starts in was led by a 32.3 percent jump in the Midwest. Also improving were the West, up 27.6 percent, and the Northeast, up 5.4 percent. The South slipped 3.3 percent.
There may be modest improvement ahead for housing starts. Housing permits gained 11.2 percent in March after decreasing 5.2 percent the prior month. Overall permits came in at an annualized rate of 0.534 million units and are down 13.3 percent on a year-ago basis.
Today's report is modest good news for a sector where expectations have been running low. Activity is still at a depressed level but now there is hope that housing is not back on a downtrend. Despite the favorable numbers, it is good that they were not much better. Supply is still high and too much of a boost in starts would simply mean pullback later until demand is more robust.
The March housing starts reports provided small lift to equity futures which earlier had been boosted by favorable earnings reports.
STARTS:
COMPLETIONS:
Think you’ll find a picture like that in the mainstream? Why not? Nope, just “Housing market shows some muscle.” Delusional/ Economic Mass Psychosis comes to mind. While disinformation is nothing new, the scope and extent of it certainly is.
"If you don't read the newspaper you are uninformed, if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed."Did Bill Gross do the opposite of his book and go long bonds? Say it isn’t so. Why gee, I’ve been pointing out how all this talk of him selling everything came well after the fact and at a time that bonds were very close to major long term support. Since this time bonds have proceeded almost straight up, and today finally it’s being reported that maybe he went long again. Duh.- Mark Twain
Let me help the uninitiated… The markets, all of them, are rigged. The exchanges are owned by the big banks who also create money from nothing. They own HFT computers and fuel their trading with their freshly printed money. There are NO regulators – forget that quaint notion. The politicians not only do not care, they are in on it and promote it. Ordinary citizens who try to play in their casino will lose – just like a casino, you will win just enough to keep you coming back as long as you still believe in their illusion. It’s a sick and twisted situation that is nothing but outright theft in my opinion – at least a casino is honest and you know the odds going in. In the ‘markets,’ not only do you not really know the odds, you are told nothing but lies and disinformation regarding the odds. The insiders manipulate everything – all of it. There are super-insiders who reside at the Primary Dealers (they OWN the “Fed” literally), and then there are ancillary insiders, like Bill Gross, who are given access to the real inside story as long as they do the bidding for the higher ups and promote their games.
Of course then there are various levels of insiders below the ancillary level, most of these people are unaware patsies who are tossed bones as long as they support the games. All the real insiders realize that there are no regulators – and that they are safe from having bought off the politicians. The only people ever prosecuted are the patsies who have either failed to support the game properly, or who have been made a sacrificial lamb for the real insiders – Bernie Madoff comes to mind in this regard – as the big boys knew his scam and only allowed regulators to get him when the pressure was on to feed a lamb to the sharks following the turmoil they created.
So, that’s the way the real world works – “invest” at your own risk within that context. Good luck, you’ll need it.
Let’s turn to the Fukushima nuclear situation again… no, I won’t let it go – it’s the most important event still occurring on the planet. Here’s Arnie Gunderson with his latest update. This one gets a little bit technical, so you may want to replay it to follow along – I note that when he puts up the temperature charts that the first digit is not in view, so the very bottom of the temperature graph is Zero, then 50 degrees Celsius, 100, 150, 200, etcetera.
Gundersen Discusses Current Condition of Reactors, TEPCO Claim of "No Fission" in Fuel Pool, and Lack of Radiation Monitoring in
I will note that unlike what Arnie said about pressures, it’s NOT good to have ZERO pressure in a nuclear reactor – that means the containment is compromised. Some pressure would be expected, but too high of pressure is not good either. The bottom line is that these reactors and cooling pools are all sick, and the situation is worse than the Japanese are letting on. Another example is the fact that robots couldn’t get into reactor number two as the steam was too thick and fogged over the camera lenses. At the doorway radiation levels were sky high – and so how do you get workers in? You don’t because you can’t.
TEPCO couldn't get enough data on the radiation level in the Reactor 2 building. Two remote-controlled robots went through the door to the Reactor 2 building on April 2. But after measuring 4.1 milli-sievert/hr near the door, the camera lens quickly became foggy due to high humidity (94 to 99%) and couldn't record the radiation level.
Meanwhile we still don’t discuss how to really contain it on site, and all the while radiation continues to pour into the environment. The latest? Fallout is now being found in the Southern Hemisphere, meaning there’s no place on the planet that’s unaffected. Our own FDA refuses to test Pacific fish? Heck yes, do as Arnie says and write your politicians, that is totally unacceptable.
Here’s a link to see the latest Xenon dispersion cloud… note that by the 23rd a very large and dense band will be aimed right at the west coast with levels similar to those passing over Japan. While on this site, you can also see the dispersion of cesium and how it’s making its way all across the United States: North America Xenon dispersion forecast from Fukushima through 4/23
Senin, 18 April 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 4/18 - Confidence Waning, Outlook Negative Edition…
And you thought it couldn’t get this surreal…
Just prior to the open this morning, Standard & Poor’s put the United States on “outlook negative.” Stocks are falling, the dollar is falling (but bouncing mechanically later), bonds are falling, gold & silver are setting new records, oil is falling, and most food commodities are slightly lower.
From S&P:
I’ve been saying that for quite some time, and that’s exactly the way it’s heading, this admission/ veiled threat by S&P is a major step along the way. Keep in mind that the rating agencies aren’t going to do anything rash, their livelihood depends upon it. S&P is owned by McGraw Hill (MHP) which in turn is owned by some of the largest funds in the world. I’m certain that those fund holders want to reel in what they see as an unsustainable path. Of course as is usual for the rating agencies, they will only pronounce that the horse is in trouble AFTER the barn has burned down. Look for things to heat up over the debt ceiling debate and for progress to be made there and on next year’s fantasy budget where they will be touting how much they “saved” while continuing to feed the impossible math.
The Housing Market Index will be released at 10 Eastern this morning, while this light release week brings more housing data, and “Leading Indicators” later in the week.
Meanwhile interest rates continue to blow out on European debt, as the Fins vote out those in favor of a Portugal bailout, and the Greeks seek to restructure their debts into something longer term in order to fend off outright default.
Bizarre enough world for you? Thank a central banker. Oh yeah, it gets even more weird…
Oh yeah, as nuts as Czars are, our glorious exalted grand leader decided to take matters into his own hands (handler hands, of course) by flat out ignoring the direction of Congress who had passed a law that included provisions to defund many of the Presidential appointed “Czars.” Obama is flat out ignoring those provisions via adding in a Presidential “Signing Statement” which says surreptitiously that he is going to ignore that part of the law. In this manner he is CIRCUMVENTING THE RULE OF LAW. In other words, he is circumventing the checks and balances set for in this nation’s Constitution. He is overpowering the legislative branch and the legislative process.
Of course he is not the first to do so, that title goes to the former central banker Puppet-in-Chief. Note, however, this is yet another act on his part where he says one thing and then does the other – something for which I’m sure he must be on track to hold the political record. Surreal.
Did I say surreal? Oh yeah, it gets better. This weekend we learned that the University of Texas converted all their endowment’s paper gold holdings into physical gold – as in 664,300 ounces! Worth is nearly a billion dollars at today’s $1,500 an ounce, but that billion dollars represents only 5% of the University’s Endowment.
The University of Texas possesses the nation’s second largest endowment at $19.9 billion. Harvard’s is over $25 billion (but was over $30).
So, what does this ACTION on their part say? It says to me that they are no longer CONFIDENT that their paper gold holdings possess real value. It says that they understand their money is being devalued by reckless bankers and politicians and that they want to protect their huge portfolio.
Now then, this is just one institution that is losing confidence. S&P stated they are losing confidence. What happens when ALL the endowments seek to convert paper gold into physical? Seems to me that this is a game of first come, first served. Could it ignite a run on the physical metal? You bet it could, it seems to me that’s already in progress. Is this a sign of a top? Let me know when most the endowments have done likewise – and just imagine what would happen if all the large investments funds did the same!
Oh, and I have another issue here. Why on earth does the University of Texas endowment fund possess so damn much money?! With the cost of education soaring, the Universities are sitting on billions and billions while they jack up the cost of tuition and force students to bury themselves in central banker DEBT. Currently on Wikipedia there are 58 university endowment funds with values above a billion dollars (Wikipedia – Endowments > $1 billon)!
So, effectively the universities are robbing Peter (students) to pay Paul (Endowment and its managers), while putting the taxpayer on the hook to guarantee it all through the student loan process (which is not dischargeable in the bankruptcy process by the way – thanks to central bankers writing these “laws”).
How much educating could the University of Texas endowment do? Go ahead and get out your Cray calculator and divide $20 billion by whatever you think it should cost to educate one of our youth through college – the number is HUGE, and that money is simply not being used as intended. Greed comes to mind.
To refocus the discussion – all of these events point to a loss of confidence, and just look at today’s market – equities down, bonds down, dollar down (then bouncing mechanically on deleveraging), gold up. Loss of confidence is in progress.
How do you invest for that? Seems like the University of Texas is onto something.
And if those events are not surreal enough for you, think about the violent breakdown occurring now in Mexico, and then try reading about the fallout of the impossible math right here in the good ol’ U.S. of A… Crime and police work in Flint, Michigan:
And I can’t pass a day without emphasizing the dire situation in Japan – do not forget that every day more and more radiation from Fukushima is spilling into the environment and is continuing to accumulate into our food chain. The “roadmap” presented this weekend by the Japanese is complete fantasy. You will find that progress as they are discussing will not happen as they will be unable to reestablish containment as they dream. Again, it is my opinion that the number one priority be containment on site. In this regard they are talking about building a giant concrete walled structure to enclose the reactors in, but that is a dream until they get the fission reaction to stop taking place – this is because the fission reaction produces hydrogen and they risk blowing up any ordinary walled structure they place over them. No, they should be burying the cores and the pools in sand and boron, and then entombing them – at least get rid of TEPCO and bring in some outside experts to brainstorm and take action on behalf of humanity!
Each new aftershock seems to stir the corium and produce another large release of particles that is promptly covered up by the Japanese removing the radiation data as if it did not happen. Again, this is the type of cover-up that occurs when special interests are in charge – it is the exact same type of cover-up practiced daily in our markets and with our economic data.
And that is exactly why the University of Texas is converting to physical gold, and why the S&P put the United States of America on watch Negative.
Just prior to the open this morning, Standard & Poor’s put the United States on “outlook negative.” Stocks are falling, the dollar is falling (but bouncing mechanically later), bonds are falling, gold & silver are setting new records, oil is falling, and most food commodities are slightly lower.
From S&P:
Because the U.S. has, relative to its 'AAA' peers, what we consider to be very large budget deficits and rising government indebtedness and the path to addressing these is not clear to us, we have revised our outlook on the long-term rating to negative from stable.What we have here is two things; one is a large step towards admission of our impossible math, and two is political pressure to act. That pressure to act is exactly the type of pressure that can lead to another wave of deflation as austerity measures are “the cure” when operating inside of the central banker debt money box. My take is that any deflation, while potentially significant, will be overrun with the impossible math and thus a complete “restructuring” of our debt and money systems is going to occur.
We believe there is a material risk that U.S. policymakers might not reach an agreement on how to address medium- and long-term budgetary challenges by 2013; if an agreement is not reached and meaningful implementation does not begin by then, this would in our view render the U.S. fiscal profile meaningfully weaker than that of peer 'AAA' sovereigns.
Outlook
The negative outlook on our rating on the U.S. sovereign signals that we believe there is at least a one-in-three likelihood that we could lower our long-term rating on the U.S. within two years. The outlook reflects our view of the increased risk that the political negotiations over when and how to address both the medium- and long-term fiscal challenges will persist until at least after national elections in 2012.
Some compromise that achieves agreement on a comprehensive budgetary consolidation program--containing deficit reduction measures in amounts near those recently proposed, and combined with meaningful steps toward implementation by 2013--is our baseline assumption and could lead us to revise the outlook back to stable. Alternatively, the lack of such an agreement or a significant further fiscal deterioration for any reason could lead us to lower the rating.
I’ve been saying that for quite some time, and that’s exactly the way it’s heading, this admission/ veiled threat by S&P is a major step along the way. Keep in mind that the rating agencies aren’t going to do anything rash, their livelihood depends upon it. S&P is owned by McGraw Hill (MHP) which in turn is owned by some of the largest funds in the world. I’m certain that those fund holders want to reel in what they see as an unsustainable path. Of course as is usual for the rating agencies, they will only pronounce that the horse is in trouble AFTER the barn has burned down. Look for things to heat up over the debt ceiling debate and for progress to be made there and on next year’s fantasy budget where they will be touting how much they “saved” while continuing to feed the impossible math.
The Housing Market Index will be released at 10 Eastern this morning, while this light release week brings more housing data, and “Leading Indicators” later in the week.
Meanwhile interest rates continue to blow out on European debt, as the Fins vote out those in favor of a Portugal bailout, and the Greeks seek to restructure their debts into something longer term in order to fend off outright default.
Bizarre enough world for you? Thank a central banker. Oh yeah, it gets even more weird…
Gov. Scott Walker Reportedly Planning Financial Martial Law In WisconsinSieg Heil, Mein Fuhrer! …as if national level Czars weren’t bizarre enough, the financial chaos is breeding mini Hitlers who feel their bizarre actions are justified by the impossible math they are forced to deal with.
Following the lead of Michigan GOP Governor Rick Snyder, Walker is said to be preparing a plan that would allow him to force local governments to submit to a financial stress test with an eye towards permitting the governor to take over municipalities that fail to meet with Walker’s approval.
According to the reports, should a locality’s financial position come up short, the Walker legislation would empower the governor to insert a financial manager of his choosing into local government with the ability to cancel union contracts, push aside duly elected local government officials and school board members and take control of Wisconsin cities and towns whenever he sees fit to do so.
Such a law would additionally give Walker unchallenged power to end municipal services of which he disapproves, including safety net assistance to those in need.
Oh yeah, as nuts as Czars are, our glorious exalted grand leader decided to take matters into his own hands (handler hands, of course) by flat out ignoring the direction of Congress who had passed a law that included provisions to defund many of the Presidential appointed “Czars.” Obama is flat out ignoring those provisions via adding in a Presidential “Signing Statement” which says surreptitiously that he is going to ignore that part of the law. In this manner he is CIRCUMVENTING THE RULE OF LAW. In other words, he is circumventing the checks and balances set for in this nation’s Constitution. He is overpowering the legislative branch and the legislative process.
Of course he is not the first to do so, that title goes to the former central banker Puppet-in-Chief. Note, however, this is yet another act on his part where he says one thing and then does the other – something for which I’m sure he must be on track to hold the political record. Surreal.
Did I say surreal? Oh yeah, it gets better. This weekend we learned that the University of Texas converted all their endowment’s paper gold holdings into physical gold – as in 664,300 ounces! Worth is nearly a billion dollars at today’s $1,500 an ounce, but that billion dollars represents only 5% of the University’s Endowment.
The University of Texas possesses the nation’s second largest endowment at $19.9 billion. Harvard’s is over $25 billion (but was over $30).
So, what does this ACTION on their part say? It says to me that they are no longer CONFIDENT that their paper gold holdings possess real value. It says that they understand their money is being devalued by reckless bankers and politicians and that they want to protect their huge portfolio.
Now then, this is just one institution that is losing confidence. S&P stated they are losing confidence. What happens when ALL the endowments seek to convert paper gold into physical? Seems to me that this is a game of first come, first served. Could it ignite a run on the physical metal? You bet it could, it seems to me that’s already in progress. Is this a sign of a top? Let me know when most the endowments have done likewise – and just imagine what would happen if all the large investments funds did the same!
Oh, and I have another issue here. Why on earth does the University of Texas endowment fund possess so damn much money?! With the cost of education soaring, the Universities are sitting on billions and billions while they jack up the cost of tuition and force students to bury themselves in central banker DEBT. Currently on Wikipedia there are 58 university endowment funds with values above a billion dollars (Wikipedia – Endowments > $1 billon)!
So, effectively the universities are robbing Peter (students) to pay Paul (Endowment and its managers), while putting the taxpayer on the hook to guarantee it all through the student loan process (which is not dischargeable in the bankruptcy process by the way – thanks to central bankers writing these “laws”).
How much educating could the University of Texas endowment do? Go ahead and get out your Cray calculator and divide $20 billion by whatever you think it should cost to educate one of our youth through college – the number is HUGE, and that money is simply not being used as intended. Greed comes to mind.
To refocus the discussion – all of these events point to a loss of confidence, and just look at today’s market – equities down, bonds down, dollar down (then bouncing mechanically on deleveraging), gold up. Loss of confidence is in progress.
How do you invest for that? Seems like the University of Texas is onto something.
And if those events are not surreal enough for you, think about the violent breakdown occurring now in Mexico, and then try reading about the fallout of the impossible math right here in the good ol’ U.S. of A… Crime and police work in Flint, Michigan:
Riding Along With the Cops in Murdertown, U.S.A.Go ahead and give that one a read.
A sign taped to the entrance of police headquarters says it all: “Closed weekends and holidays.” Every weekday, the doors are locked at dusk.
It’s not that the cops here are scared; it’s just that they’re outmanned, outgunned and flat broke.
…“Sometimes, we don’t get to a call for two days,” he says. Last fall, an elderly couple called after being held up at gunpoint in their driveway. The police arrived on the scene five hours later.
And I can’t pass a day without emphasizing the dire situation in Japan – do not forget that every day more and more radiation from Fukushima is spilling into the environment and is continuing to accumulate into our food chain. The “roadmap” presented this weekend by the Japanese is complete fantasy. You will find that progress as they are discussing will not happen as they will be unable to reestablish containment as they dream. Again, it is my opinion that the number one priority be containment on site. In this regard they are talking about building a giant concrete walled structure to enclose the reactors in, but that is a dream until they get the fission reaction to stop taking place – this is because the fission reaction produces hydrogen and they risk blowing up any ordinary walled structure they place over them. No, they should be burying the cores and the pools in sand and boron, and then entombing them – at least get rid of TEPCO and bring in some outside experts to brainstorm and take action on behalf of humanity!
Each new aftershock seems to stir the corium and produce another large release of particles that is promptly covered up by the Japanese removing the radiation data as if it did not happen. Again, this is the type of cover-up that occurs when special interests are in charge – it is the exact same type of cover-up practiced daily in our markets and with our economic data.
And that is exactly why the University of Texas is converting to physical gold, and why the S&P put the United States of America on watch Negative.
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